STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[Basil]

Analysts have them earning 12 cps in FY24 and FY25 and dividends per share at 9 cps each year, presume full imputation credits apply = 9 / 0.72 = 12.5 cps gross.  On $1.06 that's a forward FY24 PE of 8.8 and gross yield of 11.8%.  On the face of it these looks like pretty compelling metrics.

My nose for trouble is telling me they won't do the above numbers and the headwinds in the constructions sector are too strong. 

[lorraina]

Think we will find the answers we are looking for on Wednesday.
Love to see the analysts proved wrong [again]..lol.

[Shareguy]

Great seeing the different points of view both positive and negative.

Hopefully we will get some clarity shortly.

[winner (n)]

Great seeing the different points of view both positive and negative.

Hopefully we will get some clarity shortly.

Mark will do a great rave ....no worries

[Basil]

Sorry guys, I can't see what there is to get excited about with this one.  Plenty of excitement on here by many, just before they reported in February 23 and oh my goodness, what a three months its been since then with the share price down a considerable ~ 25%.

Viewed through a long term lens, they're earning and paying dividends at a much lower level that they have been in previous cycles.  I think its crystal clear we're headed into what is arguably quite a protracted period of lower economic activity and the outlook statement they gave in mid February 2023 made for pretty sober reading as did eps for the half year to 31 December 2022 relative to the PCP.

Looks like a value trap to me with no obvious catalyst for a rerate and plenty of potential for the share price to continue is well established downtrend.  No question this long-established company will have its day in the sun again, when the economy starts to pick up again, but its early winter and for the near term I foresee it getting colder and darker and I am not just talking about the weather.    That's how I see it.

[lorraina]

Mark will do a great rave ....no worries

I have been reading STU's announcements and presentations again this morning.
Conclusion.I agree with you..

Disc.Although I hold what I want of STU,an outstanding rave by Mark may move me to buy more...lol

[BlackPeter]

I see STU share price down 27% over last 12 months, FBU down 21% and VSL down 19%

In same period NZX50 up slightly

Even though all three do positive raves it seems the market per se doesn't like building/construction companies these days ......could say if market forward looking the future isn't that bright.

Indicators like consents not that good so market could be weak over next year or so and as usual a recovery could take some time.

Should have a better feel after Marks  rave next week

I guess there is s a different way to read the highlighted bit: "could say if market forward looking the market isn't that bright"

Obviously - nobody can look into the future, so lets not beat up the market.

Interesting article in the herald (sorry, paywalled):

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-with-numbers-this-good-why-does-the-economy-feel-so-bad/G3N6N6R4U5BZHFNUFCQF3D3IH4/

But I recon it makes sense to keep talking the market down ... until we all have filled our boots and trucks ;

Family member working at some competitor for STU ... and indicated a couple of months ago that things are going a bit slow. Met him yesterday and it sounds they are busy again, but sure - that's just one data point, not a statistical relevant trend.

[winner (n)]

I have been reading STU's announcements and presentations again this morning.
Conclusion.I agree with you..

Disc.Although I hold what I want of STU,an outstanding rave by Mark may move me to buy more...lol

Mark's raves almost on a par of those of Dave's. Dave didn't lose his touch after selling Methven and doing a good job keeping Comvita public profile up there.

Hope Mark doesn't disappoint next week

[winner (n)]

Investors went mad on the TAB just know ...piled the cash on a horse and backed  it in from $15 to $5 ....like saying STU share price is going to double or something like that.

As the price kept falling I just had to join the army of investors ......and said to myself jeez with a horse named JUSTASKPERCY what could go wrong.

And JUSTASKPERCY delivered ......so a few extra bob to spend this week.

[winner (n)]

When Fletchers offered a good price in a takeover STU told shareholders that
"conservative assumptions value your shares at $1.95- $2.36 per share"

That was in 2018 ....share price might get there one day

Mark has been CEO for 5 years now ...,,.,suppose we need to give him more time

[Teitei]

When Fletchers offered a good price in a takeover STU told shareholders that
"conservative assumptions value your shares at $1.95- $2.36 per share"

That was in 2018 ....share price might get there one day

Mark has been CEO for 5 years now ...,,.,suppose we need to give him more time

Amazing how your tune has changed in just 2 weeks, W69.

You bought some stock?

[Teitei]

Amazing how your tune has changed in just 2 weeks, W69.

You bought some stock?

W69 gone awfully quiet.

Must be hoping that Mark is going to deliver some good news tomorrow now that he has bought the stock?

[winner (n)]

W69 gone awfully quiet.

Must be hoping that Mark is going to deliver some good news tomorrow now that he has bought the stock?

First half profit down on last year ....key tomorrow is whether last months has seen sales growth and profits haven't slipped further.

Still trying to get keen on STU

You put me off when you said if preso not too good and a downgrade it'll mean the 'recovery' is over and share price will fall to the 80'sh

Could will happen as STU seem to go through bad times etc etc every 5 or 6 years and Mark has been in charge for 5 years now.

[Teitei]

Still trying to get keen on STU

You put me off when you said if preso not too good and a downgrade it'll mean the 'recovery' is over and share price will fall to the 80'sh

Could will happen as STU seem to go through bad times etc etc every 5 or 6 years and Mark has been in charge for 5 years now.

Now, W69 - not nice to add an extra line to my post. Post fairly and with integrity.

I fully expect Mark to deliver bad news tomorrow as international steel prices are back to where they were in 2017 and STU's high inventory level will need write-offs?

[Teitei]

Duplication