STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[winner (n)]

Shareguy ....keen on this eh .....you work in industry and have a decent feel for what's happening

[Shareguy]

Shareguy ....keen on this eh .....you work in industry and have a decent feel fot pr what's happening

Yes, Yes and Yes Winner.

[Poet]

I am looking forward to the investor update which will hopefully be next week. 

Analyst coverage has 2024 and 2025 on lower EPS and dividend. I think they are far to conservative and wrong. 
Take FY22 Craig's had forecasts of 13.2 EPS and dividend of 9.2cps.

Actual was 18.3 EPS and 13cps dividend.

Stu these days has Low debt, lean with big reduction in overheads, diversified and a focus on basics. Recent acquisitions to add 0.5 to Eps according to ceo. Interested to hear how entrance into the Aluminum market is going. Trading well under nta for a distribution business does not make sense to me. Historically has traded well above nta and carried high debt.

Forecasts for FY23 from analysts. FY22 dividend was $.13 cps partially imputed.

Craig's forecast for FY23 is $.093 cps
Fbar forecast is $.10 cps

Stu current policy is to pay out 60% - 80% of adjusted NPAT to shareholders. I'm picking that the actual dividend will be very similar to last years $.13 when you account for imputation going forward. They have the ability to pay out at 80 percent of adjusted NPAT to match last years. Would also like to see a dividend re investment plan and share buyback.

Have looked at this going down with the rest of the market and think it's a good buy, a steel in fact.

I have more than enough but can't resist at these prices.

Disc. Have been accumulating. Overweight. Hope I'm right.

Also cashflow should be excellent as they reduce inventory from the high levels built up during covid supply chain disruptions. As a consequence, Debt should be down again and there should plenty of cash left over to pay a decent dividend or start a buyback.
Disc - I've got plenty

[Teitei]

For goodness sake - can you guys just stop any positive posts, just for a few days? Please!

[Basil]

and think it's a good buy, a steel in fact.

Nice play on words

[Clearasmud]

I think they are looking for an excuse to cut the dividend. They want cash to invest in more add-ons and retire high interest debt.
Cash flow is getting squeezed a little at this part of the cycle.

[Shareguy]

Craig's have added STU to their bakers dozen. (stocks most likely to perform short term).

[winner (n)]

In days past when I was working in a business whose fortunes to a large degree depended on the building/construction activities we included STU in our 'peer group' to monitor market activities

Morbid fascination with STU has seen me keep keeping on updating my model. Sad eh

Their performance has ever really inspired me. Sales growth has been a bit and up down and profit margins over time have declined....like in 2004 they made $29.5m on $388m of sales and last year made about the same profit but on $599m of sales.

Below is a chart of their annual sales growth this century Except for a couple of good years nothing to get enthused over. And I have a feeling that what previously happened post 2007 is likely to happen over the next few years (building downturn etc etc). And consensud forecasts are 'predicting' that

Is this time different ....  what's in their DNA would say no really .... The F22 result might be as good as it gets for a while.

I've held at odd times .... even recently from about a buck but took profits when the share price started weakening. Seems Craigs have put on their outperform list for no other reason than the share price has fallen (as opposed to strong financial performance), They probably re right as current price is tempting (for short/medium term gains).

That's how I see it anyway

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[winner (n)]

I'm still trying to get keen on STU again

Next weeks preso will be interesting. About this time last year at an investor day they produced detailed 10 month financials and performance commentary.

Good stuff ......hope they do the same this year

NPAT at half year was down on pcp and they weren't bullish in what they said about the rest of the year. If they do produce 10 month numbers we'd see how good or bad the last four months have been ...I'd hazard a guess not that good....but at least we'll know.

I'll wait until after that preso to see whether I'm still keen, but...........

[winner (n)]

........"but the share price downtrend from a high of 170 is still intact (lower lows etc etc) and no sign of it ending ....and next week might be bad news and a trigger for it to go under a buck.
Uk.

And KW keeps reminding me never buy in a downtrend and be an idiot.

[winner (n)]

I see STU share price down 27% over last 12 months, FBU down 21% and VSL down 19%

In same period NZX50 up slightly

Even though all three do positive raves it seems the market per se doesn't like building/construction companies these days ......could say if market forward looking the future isn't that bright.

Indicators like consents not that good so market could be weak over next year or so and as usual a recovery could take some time.

Should have a better feel after Marks  rave next week

[Basil]

Lost a bit of dough on this mangy mutt last year when I bought into the hype on here about it.
Glad I Qatarized the small wound in the low $1.40's and got out.
The old mantra of once bitten, twice shy probably applies here for me.

[winner (n)]

Lost a bit of dough on this mangy mutt last year when I bought into the hype on here about it.
Glad I Qatarized the small wound in the low $1.40's and got out.
Don't see any reason to have another go either from a FA or TA perspective and then of course there's the old mantra of once bitten, twice shy.

Bloody good divie basil .....thought that might have seduced you

[winner (n)]

Bloody good divie basil .....thought that might have seduced you

Probably yield will be greater than 13% gross

Better buying 'cheap' than waiting for share price to get back to 130...yield only about 10% then.

[lorraina]

Be interesting presentation on Wednesday.
I am looking to see whether the latest high margin bolt ons are delivering,and to by how much they have lowered their stock level.
But perhaps most important will be their outlook.
Current PE of 6.36 is very modest,while current yield of 10.85% is very generous.