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Started by LaserEyeKiwi, Jun 27, 2022, 01:23 PM

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winner (n)

#675
Jul 10, 2025, 08:50 AM
LEK ...you follow Musical Chairs eh ...always has interesting insights eh

But I suppose you don't totally agree with his latest thoughts -

One of the many reasons that falling interest rates aren't kick-starting the economy. When we have pulled the 'cut  the OCR' trick before, the whole world has been in trouble so import prices fell (and we were bettet off). This time, we're going it alone like absolute muppets.

NZ slammed the brakes on the economy harder than just about anyone else (Estonia also up there). A 500pts OCR hike with private debt at 160% of GDP and IIP at 50% of GDP, plus a public infra investment pause did real damage. When we have dropped the OCR before...

... this has been in response to  a *global* downturn, which has come with reduced import prices (oil particularly). Lower import prices mean more demand / jobs onshore (and a GDP increase). In 2023/24, we went solo crashing the economy, so in 2024/25 we don't have...

... cheaper imports to help out. We also don't have a Govt willing to use public infra investment to help out. So, stagnation. This has been obvious outcome for ages, which is why I have been correctly calling BS on hopium 'return to equilibrium' forecasts for at least a year.

LaserEyeKiwi

#676
Jul 10, 2025, 09:49 AM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 10, 2025, 08:50 AMLEK ...you follow Musical Chairs eh ...always has interesting insights eh

But I suppose you don't totally agree with his latest thoughts -

One of the many reasons that falling interest rates aren't kick-starting the economy. When we have pulled the 'cut  the OCR' trick before, the whole world has been in trouble so import prices fell (and we were bettet off). This time, we're going it alone like absolute muppets.

NZ slammed the brakes on the economy harder than just about anyone else (Estonia also up there). A 500pts OCR hike with private debt at 160% of GDP and IIP at 50% of GDP, plus a public infra investment pause did real damage. When we have dropped the OCR before...

... this has been in response to  a *global* downturn, which has come with reduced import prices (oil particularly). Lower import prices mean more demand / jobs onshore (and a GDP increase). In 2023/24, we went solo crashing the economy, so in 2024/25 we don't have...

... cheaper imports to help out. We also don't have a Govt willing to use public infra investment to help out. So, stagnation. This has been obvious outcome for ages, which is why I have been correctly calling BS on hopium 'return to equilibrium' forecasts for at least a year.

They definitley often have some great charts and data. Don't always agree with them, but I am on the record as being strongly against the current government's stupid move to cancel/delay a massive amount of infrastructure spending - sending the economy into a downward spiral.

On a related note the RBNZ yesterday laid out how they expect the lower mortgage rates to flow through:

"Monetary policy settings can take 12 to 18 months to be fully felt in the economy, and so the RBNZ expects previous rate cuts to have a larger impact in the second half of the year.

The average mortgage rate is expected to fall from 5.9% today to about 5.2% by Christmas."


LaserEyeKiwi

#677
Jul 10, 2025, 09:59 AM
Reserve Bank also under the impressions that US tariffs will lead to Trade Diversion flooding us with cheaper imports and having a deflationary effect for NZ and other countries, while US inflation set to soar.

mcdongle

#678
Jul 10, 2025, 10:25 AM
Quote from: LaserEyeKiwi on Jul 09, 2025, 10:41 AMthat 32% is for those that have a mortgage on their own home. You also have to include the investor mortgages on the one third of households that rent.

Now factor in that those that have a mortgage (either owner-occupiers or property investors) have on average far higher incomes than those that do not own property (renters).

Also, a large portion of owner occupiers that do not have a mortgage are retired people, who also have on average lower incomes.

In other words: those with mortgages are a big driver of discretionary retail spending.

Yes you are right i should have included rentals , So i asked again.And of course AI came up with a different percentage of households with mortgages.


📊 Combined view
≈35.7% of households have a mortgage on their primary home.

≈7.9% have a mortgage on one or more rental properties.

These categories may overlap—some households hold both; but many are distinct (e.g. homeowners vs investor landlords).

winner (n)

#679
Jul 10, 2025, 03:07 PM
We have to hope that post covid consumers / households habits/ priorities haven't changed and hunker down ...for good

Many might be thinking the country is stuffed and realise they've been living beyond their means so can't spend as freely as in the past

Basil

#680
Jul 14, 2025, 05:47 PM

winner (n)

#681
Jul 14, 2025, 06:18 PM
Quote from: Basil on Jul 14, 2025, 05:47 PMColder weather has more people shopping for apparel.  Paywalled.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/winter-chill-boosts-spending-as-kiwis-go-clothes-shopping/PTW2UBAMNFHJRPT4DK6UHB7J2I/

The good ol' seasonality adjusted trick

Apparel sales were down 1% on June last year ...sales have down v pcp every month for last 12 months

At best you could say apparel sales are going backwards at a slower rate.

Basil

#682
Jul 14, 2025, 08:37 PM
I liked the concluding remarks.
Quote"Compared to this time last year, fixed-term mortgage rates are around 170 to 200bps lower," he said.

"The full impact of those declines is yet to be felt as most New Zealand mortgages are fixed for a period."

Over the next six months, around half of all mortgages would come up for refixing, giving many borrowers the chance to secure a much lower rate, he said.

"The related increases in disposable income levels will be a boost for sentiment, and that should support a gradual recovery in spending as we approach the end of the year."

KW

#684
Jul 22, 2025, 09:55 AM
Interesting Aussie stats... 

There are fresh calls for a tax on fast fashion with a never-ending cycle of discounts, sale frenzies, and promotions, fuelling a consumption crisis.  Australians are among the worst offenders in the world when it comes to fast fashion, purchasing more pieces per person than anywhere else.  The level of overproduction and overconsumption is unprecedented.  The average Australian buys 27 kilograms of new clothing each year, but dumps 23 kilograms
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

Red Baron

#685
Jul 22, 2025, 10:01 AM Last Edit: Jul 22, 2025, 10:39 AM by Red Baron
Quote from: KW on Jul 22, 2025, 09:55 AMInteresting Aussie stats...

There are fresh calls for a tax on fast fashion with a never-ending cycle of discounts, sale frenzies, and promotions, fuelling a consumption crisis.  Australians are among the worst offenders in the world when it comes to fast fashion, purchasing more pieces per person than anywhere else.  The level of overproduction and overconsumption is unprecedented.  The average Australian buys 27 kilograms of new clothing each year, but dumps 23 kilograms


Zo doing ze maths.

27/23= 1.17.    Zhis means ze Ozzie cousins are getting 17% vatter each year?   Zounds about right.

RB

Waltzing

#686
Jul 28, 2025, 12:10 PM
No wonder HLG is doing well....

The depreciating US dollar could also be good for inflation in both countries putting more pressure on RB's to reduce OCR's and push price of petrol down...

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/134408/roger-j-kerr-says-global-trade-scenario-emerging-could-be-real-benefit-new

perhaps the local grass skirt could make a come back and roto vagas retail tourist shops should do well...

winner (n)

#687
Aug 10, 2025, 06:18 PM
Retailwatch had NZ retail sales for month of July UP 4% on July last year

Solid increases for both in-store and online.

Waltzing

#689
Aug 18, 2025, 12:55 PM Last Edit: Aug 18, 2025, 01:02 PM by Waltzing
the reserved bank are all over the show when it come to WHAT, WHAT , WHAT to DO!!

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/134768/experts-agree-reserve-bank-should-cut-official-cash-rate-again-week-beyond-wide

they are STUMPED!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0xoX_9fAzQ

and its still good today!!!!

in fact its better than ever!!!
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