Retail Stocks

[Stoploss]

Briscoes change in instore/online mix over last few years is quite dramatic

Since January 2019 annual online sales have grown from $63m to $173m as at July this year - up $110m or 175%

In same 3 1/2 years in store sales have grown by $13m (2%) to $581m and are still about the same as they were at January 2020

Just highights how the online channel has been the saviour of Briscoes over the last couple of years

I'd hazard a guess that shopping habits have changed and online activity is here to stay .... but physical stores still an important part of the overall mix .... both for the shopping experience and 'click and collect'

Remind me who looks after the Briscoes online shopping channel ?

[lorraina]

Estar.
But wait there's more.
David Jones is also a client of their's.
While David Jones FY22 turnover declined by 2.6% amid first half lockdowns, it grew 4.3% in the second half.

Online sales increased by 28.7% and contributed 22.8% to total sales over the full year.

[Basil]

Chart on WHS and HLG actually looks pretty good for recent months.

Maybe all the retail doom and gloom is a bit overdone ?

People seem to be out and about in force this morning enjoying not having to wear a mask.  Maybe KPG with its malls is also pretty good buying at 95 cents ?

[SCOTTY]

Remind me who looks after the Briscoes online shopping channel ?

eStar - Estaronline Ltd is the unlisted Public Company that provides the online platform for a number of major Australasian Companies. Their website is - www.estaronline.com

Refer Lorraina's post number 61 above for more information

[Hectorplains]

Chart on WHS and HLG actually looks pretty good for recent months.

Maybe all the retail doom and gloom is a bit overdone ?

People seem to be out and about in force this morning enjoying not having to wear a mask.  Maybe KPG with its malls is also pretty good buying at 95 cents ?

The Clothing and Footwear (instore and online)segment of NZ's total retail spend for July to Aug was down more than 7%.  The total retail spend was down 1% for the month.  Things may not be "doom and gloom" but there is cause for caution.

[Basil]

The Clothing and Footwear (instore and online)segment of NZ's total retail spend for July to Aug was down more than 7%.  The total retail spend was down 1% for the month.  Things may not be "doom and gloom" but there is cause for caution.

Fair comment.  I have a modest stake in WHS, (its been good to me in the past), and oh my goodness I can't help myself despite post #50 above I took a small stake in HLG again in recent days.  Reasons.  1. The chart doesn't look too shabby at all and it seems to have been building a base over the last ~ 4 months since late May..  2. There are 2 dividends in the next 7 months and I am expecting ~ 8% gross yield despite only partial imputation.  3. Its been such an incredible stock for me in the past I feel compelled to have some on board.  (I acknowledge this is more an emotional attachment issue, but it is predicated upon a very strong balance sheet with no debt and proven management expertise and a solid track record of growth with Glassons Au before Covid).  4.  I think FY23 is trough year earnings for them and probably WHS as well.  I am investing for yield and on a "look through" FY23 trough year earnings to FY24 these look okay to me.  5 I believe Glassons Australia will start growing again very nicely in FY24.  There could be a better entry point for HLG, but I have slowly started a process of opening up a position again and my intentions are that I will dollar cost average into a decent sized position over the next ~ 12 - 18 months.
300 posts on here 

[winner (n)]

Glassons AU sales must be on fire at the moment - good start for HLG FY23

Wow - look at the red line on this chart

It's how clothing sector retail sales are going in OZ (from ABS Retail data)

August month sales were up 83% on last year (following the 51% increase in July). No doubt partly due to lockdowns last year

Must be a great start to the F23 year for Glassons AU

Overall no signs of distress in OZ retail in spite of rate increases etc etc

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[Basil]

I've slinked back into my kennell licking my wounds after the WHS result yesterday.
Brutally tough operating environment, (which has already been discussed ad nauseum), and now the currency is well below 60 cents it's really hard to see how they can maintain margins in FY23.  HLG and WHS in downtrends.  I opened up a very small positions in both, with the intention of dollar cost averaging in over a period of time.  It's clear to me now, I started this process too early.    Sometimes you are better to admit your mistake, take the medicine like a man / good dog, lick your wounds and come back and have another go later.

[Perky]

I Agree Beagle. Margin is critical in retail. Going to be pretty tough for a while...stock purchase costs up, operating costs up, consumer demand..been good but likely to soften.

I like that at least you make a decisive move. Too many times I think but don't act.

I am sure you still having more wins than losses.

[KW]

Glassons AU sales must be on fire at the moment - good start for HLG FY23

Wow - look at the red line on this chart

It's how clothing sector retail sales are going in OZ (from ABS Retail data)

August month sales were up 83% on last year (following the 51% increase in July). No doubt partly due to lockdowns last year

Must be a great start to the F23 year for Glassons AU

Overall no signs of distress in OZ retail in spite of rate increases etc etc

Premier in Australia looks to agree with those figures.
 Record Premier Retail global sales of $1,497.5 million:
o Sales up 5.2% on FY21 with 42,675 store trading days lost in 1H22
o Global like-for-like sales up 5.4% on FY21
o Record Peter Alexander sales of $428.5 million, up 11.4% on FY21
o Smiggle rebounds with sales of $261.2 million, up 24.6% on FY21 (2H22 up 61.7%)
o Online grows fivefold in five years (up 400% on FY17)
� Premier Retail gross margin of 64.8% up 52 bps on FY21
� Premier Retail EBIT margin of 22.4% up 100 bps on FY21
� All operating debt repaid during the year with FY22 closing cash on hand of $471.3 million
� FY23 has opened strongly with total global sales for the first 7 weeks up 46.7% on 1H22

 If NZ retailers are underperforming, then one has to ask why considering economic conditions are pretty similar in both countries at present.

[Shareguy]

Thought these are worth a read.

https://www.retaildive.com/news/volatility-recession-retailers-default-bankruptcy-risks/630846/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/01/economy-stock-markets-recession/

[Hectorplains]

Datamine retail monthly report:


"Total Retail Spend for September totaled $5.4B, an increase of 3.4% on August 2022 and a 30.9% increase compared to September 2021; this large increase on 2021 is inflated due to the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns during that period.

Instore spending followed a similar pattern, totaling $4.5B for the month. This represented a 4.1% increase on August 2022 and a 33.9% jump compared to September 2021.

Whilst growth in online spend has remained stable since March 2022, we have seen an increase of 17.3% YoY. Online Offshore spend continued to increase, up 2.4% on August 2022 while online domestic spend decreased by 2.0% MoM."

In the clothing / footwear segment there was around 5% growth in sales over the previous month ($241 - 254m.) Basically, the spend has returned to levels similar to early 2021. 

[Shareguy]

Tony Alexander's latest survey results here.

This is the most negative result since our survey started in June 2020 and signals that further pain lies ahead for retailers throughout the country as the Reserve Bank fights inflation with high interest rates.
We also have data telling us that not only are investors not following first home buyers into the housing market, owner occupiers aren't either.


https://tonyalexander.lt.acemlna.com/Prod/link-tracker?redirectUrl=aHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZ3d3cudG9ueWFsZXhhbmRlci5ueiUyRndwLWNvbnRlbnQlMkZ1cGxvYWRzJTJGVFYtU3BlbmRpbmctUGxhbnMtU3VydmV5LU5vdmVtYmVyLTIwMjIucGRm&sig=2MePemHdkzXbKrhqNJwnmB82hLen7dYJUMWwDCqWmMa9&iat=1667760822&a=%7C%7C611496996%7C%7C&account=tonyalexander%2Eactivehosted%2Ecom&email=qcmwvq5abY8hz7kZxf7GH735hO7C%2FF3J%2FgQB9Uu3XAY%3D&s=05e99de56204b8dcf0eb95bd41d72547&i=219A228A1A1359

[mcdongle]

No wonder i have detected a whiff of panic from the Government...

[winner (n)]

RetailWatch sales data October

Things still going pretty well - punters still more than last year. Maybe still a bit of catch up from covid last year

Appears as if things returning to normal trend (post covid ups and downs) even though volumes might be a bit flat but its important to get the tills ringing.

Anyway, make of the numbers what you want.

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