Retail Stocks

[BlackPeter]

At the bottom ... cant get any worse ... someone pass the TUI... or the brickbat.. how long has the economy been in recession now? Technical or not so technical.

Is there any technology being used to calculate this beside an excel spreadsheet down in wellington... Worst ever spreadsheet ever created by the way. Once you try the build an addin you will find out why... now Lotus 1,1 had a great french graphics and statistical add in. It was smooth fast and had a great range of pastels for graphing... 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gdp-is-new-zealand-in-recession-we-find-out-today/Y32IL4XXMBH6BC66XYWGNPHGPE/

The thing with the future is - nobody can predict it, not even smart tools, smart analysts, smart money, dumb politicians or state employees.

What anybody without the use of any fancy tools can observe is that the economy is already for some time scratching along a low lying plateau. Whether its the bottom and all up from here, or whether there is another dip - nobody knows.

What we do know is that the great depression (1929 - 1933) took 4 years, the long depression (1873 - 1878) 5 years and NZ longest post WW2 depression (the GFC - 2008 - 2009) took only 1.5 years.

So - how bad are things? Great depression stuff with unemployment rates around 40%? Hardly. GFC stuff with banking collapsing all over the place? Not really, though, what isn't can still come, but it doesn't really feel that bad, doesn't it?

So I guess - we are probably looking at something taking between 6 months and less than 18 months ... and we are already 6 months in the thing. Does not sound that bad, doesn't it - and lets face it - it could be over before we know it. As well - share indices typically starting to recover 6 months before the recession ends.

Oops - is this the time too buy?

[Waltzing]

You sure it did not start well before january 2023?

sure felt like it...

but as you say BP ... GFC took a while to recover and still the dow rolled over in 2011 ... rook well over 5 years to recover some sectors.

[BlackPeter]

You sure it did not start well before january 2023?

sure felt like it...

but as you say BP ... GFC took a while to recover and still the dow rolled over in 2011 ... rook well over 5 years to recover some sectors.

Not quite sure where January 2023 coming from, but anyway ...

The official recession is now 2 quarters (starting in July 2023).

If I look at the NZX50 as the relevant index, then it was in Bear market territory from something like Dec 21 to Jun 22 (6 months) - and since then the stock market is basically bouncing off a plateau around 10.700 - and at the moment its not even that bad (around 11.900).

You cannot view this attachment.

So, yes - you could say, not a lot happened in the last 5 years - but this includes as well that not a lot of bad stuff happened.

Obviously - the reserve banks pumped a lot of money into the economies, which inflated them, and now they are sucking the money back out of the economies and deflating them.

NZX just jittered around in the last 4 years, which means it lost something like 20% (into inflation), but otherwise we are just treading water (and jittering a bit).

Question is - do you expect this bottom trawling to continue (and for how long), do you expect this to drop into a deep hole - or is it going uphill from here?

I suspect it will be a long L-shaped recovery, but how long depends on how long the free world allows Putin and Nethanjahu and potentially Xi and Trump to play wargames.

Might be useful to look at the WW II economies. Dow Jones (admittedly with some ups and downs) was in an uptrend from 1932 to 1966.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Not sure I expect worse for the years to come.

[Waltzing]

"I suspect it will be a long L-shaped recovery"

was that not similar to the GFC ? seemed to take many years to recover.

After all is the stock market an indicator of how the real econonmy is doing?


 

[BlackPeter]

"I suspect it will be a long L-shaped recovery"

was that not similar to the GFC ? seemed to take many years to recover.

After all is the stock market an indicator of how the real econonmy is doing?

After all is the stock market an indicator of how the real econonmy is doing?

I think it is an indicator how the market expects the economy to go

[Waltzing]

Ok this is not related to retail directly but it does have KMD in the picture...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-silver-lining-behind-a-struggling-economy-stock-takes/6B4VUMD4RVDKZBOTCY7TQAHYCI/

[BlackPeter]

Ok this is not related to retail directly but it does have KMD in the picture...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-silver-lining-behind-a-struggling-economy-stock-takes/6B4VUMD4RVDKZBOTCY7TQAHYCI/

So - what would KMD have to sell to follow the stellar (well, all is relativ) recent performance of the WHS share? Maybe they should sell Kathmandu and keep RipCurl and Obos?

[Waltzing]

yes or rather KMD is going to have to something very special and maybe bring in ROD DUKE to show them how to survive in retail...

Even HLG has done better and they dont sell anything special ...

There appears to be special magic pixie dust known to only a few retail magicians ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRSBVSw_vss

[Waltzing]

Markets with Maddy ...

Retail in the spotlight ....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison-briscoes-secrets/FPOFPVKMAICRSCK2KQNQNLNKDE/

Rod Duke... interesting interview.

[Waltzing]

MHJ realsing that logistics is important in high cost enivronments. Like it or not every retail listed business is important to the country even KMD.....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/428541/415551.pdf

Notice in the Rod Duke interview Rod doubling down by investing in their new warehousing operations.. 100 milliom over 3 years.

WHS jewel in the crown of their oeprations.... how is WHS going to do its on line now... just another market customer?

[Waltzing]

This next 4 qtrs are critical to seeing NZ retail SP's holding this level going forward lucky most have an AUS stores...

https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/gross-domestic-product-gdp/

This page is the one no doubt everyone is watching...

could it be that the actuall recession is just the normal process of the RBNZ just trying to normalise it balance sheet. It was always going to happen with reserve banks having dumped that much money into the market at high speed .


 

[Waltzing]

International retail ... H&M doing fine thank you...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/hm-shares-jump-13percent-as-profit-smashes-expectations-.html

[KW]

Scentre (Westfield) AGM today.
"For the first 12 weeks of this year, we have welcomed over 118 million customer visits. This is an increase of 2.1% or 2.4 million more visits when compared to the same 12 weeks in 2023.
Total business partner sales for January and February this year are 3.1% higher compared to 2023 and 13.4% higher than 2019, or $3.5 billion higher since 2019."

[Waltzing]

  Bit of a retail stall happening ...

LVMH Revenue Falls 2% in Q1 as Luxury Slowdown Hits

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lvmh-revenue-falls-2-q1-155836265.html

[Waltzing]

inflation Its official or some guage anyway .. 4

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/how-far-has-inflation-dropped-new-cpi-figures-to-reveal-progress/GVFWVV67BVFLLCYQNJKWBMDJ3E/