PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Waltzing]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/pgg-wrightson-downgrades-forecast-as-trading-conditions-worsen/MNP6RJLCQ5B6VG4ARXDMG2ARDA/

[BlackPeter]

I would be very cautious buying into this at the moment.. still plenty of pain to come in the Ag/Hort sector

Not quite sure, whether this is true in its totality. I hear Kiwifruit as well as pipfruit (apples) and wine are currently doing pretty well and assume this is true for a number of other agri sectors (mainly crops) as well.

On the other hand - given one Rambo shareholder with a somewhat patchy character test (hard to believe that only 5 years just waiting is already cleaning your vest) seems to wish to fully control the board by playing games and the rules ... I guess this would worry me more than the current status of the agricultural sector (which well might have already hit rock bottom).

Game playing around the board table is rarely good news for retail shareholders.

[lorraina]

17-4-24
Harvest 2024

Further to the announcement on 28 February 2024, Harvest 2024 has now been completed and we can advise that the total yield was 4044 tonnes, some 20% below the budgeted tonnage. This reflects the results industry wide, which is reporting drops of 20%-30% in the Marlborough and Hawke's Bay regions. The drop in yields is a result of the poor weather conditions during flowering, resulting in lighter and lower numbers of bunches.



The lower grape price previously signalled and low yields will have a significant impact on Terra Vitae's financial result this year.



Alan O'Sullivan

Company Secretary

Attachments:

[Ricky Bobby]

Not quite sure, whether this is true in its totality. I hear Kiwifruit as well as pipfruit (apples) and wine are currently doing pretty well and assume this is true for a number of other agri sectors (mainly crops) as well.

On the other hand - given one Rambo shareholder with a somewhat patchy character test (hard to believe that only 5 years just waiting is already cleaning your vest) seems to wish to fully control the board by playing games and the rules ... I guess this would worry me more than the current status of the agricultural sector (which well might have already hit rock bottom).

Game playing around the board table is rarely good news for retail shareholders.

Wine is in oversupply with a crap vintage 24. Warehouses are full of apples. No one is buying. I know as I'm in the industry and can 100% assure u we are really struggling.

[Teitei]

Wine is in oversupply with a crap vintage 24. Warehouses are full of apples. No one is buying. I know as I'm in the industry and can 100% assure u we are really struggling.

Bought some beautiful big Fuji apples two days ago from our local Asian greengrocer at $1.99 per kg.  Sobering.

[BlackPeter]

Wine is in oversupply with a crap vintage 24. Warehouses are full of apples. No one is buying. I know as I'm in the industry and can 100% assure u we are really struggling.

Interesting. This paints at least a picture of some patchy industry performance.

Not quite the right thread, but I guess if growers have plenty of product and warehouses are overflowing (as you say) and consumers stopped buying because products are just too dear, than I guess there is only one cure ... and yes, this might be a painful medicine to take for greedy producers and merchants who always love to screw their home market ...

Anyway. Quite happy so far with my holding in Seeka, and I guess Kiwifruit is an agricultural product as well, isn't it?

[Ricky Bobby]

Yep, big harvest + slow overseas market = oversupply/ price reduction... and slow cashflow. I think cashflow is going to be the most important factor for the next 12 months...biggest issue in the Hort scene is labour, to expensive. We are trialling some radical stuff for the coming harvest to mitigate this as much as possible. Sorry to be a bobby downer, but that's what's happening at the coal face. Also domestic market is way to small to soak up supply, Nz not big enough to make a difference.

[Ferg]

I think cashflow is going to be the most important factor for the next 12 months...biggest issue in the Hort scene is labour, to expensive. We are trialling some radical stuff for the coming harvest to mitigate this as much as possible. Sorry to be a bobby downer, but that's what's happening at the coal face.

No need to apologise for being a downer - you are saying what you are seeing.  Talking of preserving cashflows, farmers are already doing this.  A local business who supplies equipment to farmers has revenues down >80% (yes you read that right) versus last year for a number of consecutive months.  That sort of loss would destroy most businesses.

I'm curious about the 'radical stuff'....is this robotic pickers which kills about 3 birds with 1 stone?

[Ricky Bobby]

Ha I wish! We are already pretty mechanised in the wine industry compared to others. Looking at the way we prune our vines. Moving from cane to spur prune, which will save us at least 50% on pruning and also trialing moving away from wire lifting to a permanent trellis...

[Red Baron]

Ha I wish! We are already pretty mechanised in the wine industry compared to others. Looking at the way we prune our vines. Moving from cane to spur prune, which will save us at least 50% on pruning and also trialing moving away from wire lifting to a permanent trellis...

Zhere I vas, hoping ze vruit pickers and ze vineries vere going to pull ze rural sector up by eets bootstraps.   Only to vind 'good product' but 'poor prices' in ze export markets.  Ze mandarin varmers vrom Northland ae ze latest to trot out another chapter in zees 'same theme story'.

Ztill, eet is great to zee our rural people zo innovative.  Even I, held up as I am in my hay barn, am considering 'upgrading my vings' vrom a triplane to a biplane.   Zhat rodent in a dogsuit who must not be mentioned, zeems to handle hees Sopwith vithout crashing as often as I have.  And eef a rat can do that, zhen maybe even a crusty old member of ze german aristocracy, vith zome rural innovation, can adapt to zees new biplane technology?

RB



 

[Shareguy]

Wow what a sustained fall.  Was a holder some years back. Has anyone done any work on this stock. EPS projections, thoughts ?

[Breezy]

Wow what a sustained fall.  Was a holder some years back. Has anyone done any work on this stock. EPS projections, thoughts ?

Looks crazy, quite a few stocks close to capitulation currently, great time to buy if you are able to.

[entrep]

Wow what a sustained fall.  Was a holder some years back. Has anyone done any work on this stock. EPS projections, thoughts ?

Snoopy has done a ton of work on the other site.

I bought in around $1.90 only the other week!

[Shareguy]

Snoopy has done a ton of work on the other site.

I bought in around $1.90 only the other week!

Ok thanks will have a look

[BlackPeter]

Wow what a sustained fall.  Was a holder some years back. Has anyone done any work on this stock. EPS projections, thoughts ?

Looks fundamentally like a solid company in an essential industry - and yes, oversold compared to fundamental value.

However - if you look at the ownership ... including the recent board spilling games - there clearly are risks. The largest (44.3%) shareholder (Agria) well might have a different agenda then the other retail shareholders and they have as well a long history of screwing their own share holders. Check Agrarinvestors posts in the other forum - a quite sad tale.

I think the current SP of PGW just reflects this in my view incalculable risk.


NZSA comments on Agria's latest attempt to take control:

https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/scrip-article/is-this-a-managed-pr-retreat-for-agria-in-pgg-wrightson/

It went ok this time, but will it stand as well the next attack? ... and - how sure can we be that the Agria directors are focussing on PGW's benefits instead of on Agrias agenda?

Caveat emptor - Buyer beware!