MFB - My Food Bag

[Minimoke]

KW - when doing a post there's a "Attachments and other options" button under the text box, tap on that and follow your instincts - ADD FILES / UPLOAD and then there's an INSERT button.

Good luck

CAn you post an image of this. I don't have it either. Like KW, above this tgext box I have an option to "Insert anf image". Under the text box there is just a "shortcuts" reminder on the left and Save draft / Preview / Post buttons on the right

[Ithaka]

CAn you post an image of this. I don't have it either. Like KW, above this tgext box I have an option to "Insert anf image". Under the text box there is just a "shortcuts" reminder on the left and Save draft / Preview / Post buttons on the right

Use the reply button rather than Quote or Quick Reply.

[KW]

Use the reply button rather than Quote or Quick Reply.

Ah yes, this works    

[KW]

MFB has not actually performed as badly as its peers, Marley Spoon (red) and Hello Fresh (yellow).  So not so much the company, merely the timing of the IPO into an overvalued market, combined with artificial growth from Covid lockdowns that were not sustainable.

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[winner (n)]

MFB has not actually performed as badly as its peers, Marley Spoon (red) and Hello Fresh (yellow).  So not so much the company, merely the timing of the IPO into an overvalued market, combined with artificial growth from Covid lockdowns that were not sustainable.

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Chair Carter pointed this out at the ASM ..... said something along the lines of 'yes our share price is down heaps but our peers are down even more ..... so were are doing relatively better than them'

Hard work being the Chair of a company whose share price has collapsed ... especially when in question he had to justify how he is still the man for the job and what's happened is not his doing' ..... but then hinted he's likely to retire soon

[winner (n)]

MFB weekly chart below ,,,,with 30MA (straight line heading down)

Been listed for 81 weeks

Hasn't been bad times all that time - there's been 28 weeks when share price has gone up .... exciting times and hope maybe that the bottom had been reached

But them again there has been 53 weeks of bugger the share price has gone down again .... but the bottom is imminent

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Seems chart not goingto look any better by end of this week

[Basil]

"MFB has not actually performed as badly as its peers, Marley Spoon (red) and Hello Fresh (yellow).  So not so much the company, merely the timing of the IPO into an overvalued market, combined with artificial growth from Covid lockdowns that were not sustainable KW".

Well said and it should have been obvious to any experienced investor the company enjoyed huge tailwinds from Covid in the year leading up to its float which makes the way the promotors targeted first time naïve investors and customers extolling them to "tuck in" all the more reprehensible.
Little did these "blind Freddy" investors know that they were the ones on the menu!

With the latest result being 8.25 cps and much of FY22 having huge tailwinds from ongoing lockdowns, (who in the Auckland region can ever forget the excruciating painful 107 day lockdown of late 2021 ?), it really begs the question what's the sustainable earnings ex Covid ?  Maybe 5 cps ?, but frankly its anyone's guess ?

Does anyone still think they're a growth business ?...certainly not I.  Put a no growth PE of 8.5 on 5 cps in possibly sustainable earnings and I can easily see this heading down to ~ 42 cents.

Of course some really nice person   has taught the hound dog to not buy in a downtrend so we'll see in due course where the bottom really is, if or when a new uptrend is ever confirmed.   

[KW]

We've all been conditioned over the last 12 years to reward growth, even "growth regardless of cost".  I am hoping this is one of the behaviours that is beaten out of the market by the big grizzly bear.  I'm sick of shareholders subsidising consumers.  Time for companies to "grow within their means" - meaning, provide an adequate return on capital deployed, rather than throwing it on the bonfire.  "Earners or Burners" is my new favourite phrase, be an "Earner" not a "Burner".  If MFB decide to stop chasing growth and just focus on being as operationally efficient as possible, while delivering a good customer product and service, and therefore are able to return profits to shareholders in the form of a fully imputed dividend, I'm all for that.  Income shares have been under-rated for a long time, and it just may be that they are due some time in the sun.  So the big question is really "what is the sustainable dividend payout, and based on inflation/interest rates, what is an appropriate yield for the company to be valued on?"  Over to someone else to answer :-)

[Basil]

If they can earn 5 cps sustainably going forward and pay 4 cps fully imputed = 4 / 0.72 = 5.55 cps gross and one required a gross yield of 10% to be adequately rewarded for risk, interest rates and inflation in a no growth share then theoretically there could be support at 55 cps.

What can they earn sustainably without Covid tailwinds is the big unknown.  Without any non covid tailwind listed history to support an informed decision one could easily make the case that something like the WHS with a decent two decade history of paying an average of 21 cps showing close to a 9% gross yield is a vastly more proven proposition and come up with a case this deserves a 300 basis point premium to that, at least.  12% required rate of return on a 4 cent fully imputed divvy gets you back to 46 cents.

For this old dividend hound a companies track record of ability to pay right across the business cycle counts for a LOT.  All we know about MFB apart from the egregious rort of naive investors wallets is they can earn about 8 cents per share with very strong tailwinds.  What can they earn in normal conditions or with headwinds is frankly anyone's guess.  I like to see a minimum of 5 years of dividend history before drawing any conclusions about the merits of a share from a dividend hounds perspective so for me this carries a ranking of "highly speculative".  In a nutshell that means I wouldn't invest in it for the dividend income.

[Auto Rower]

What can they earn sustainably without Covid tailwinds is the big unknown.  Without any non covid tailwind listed history to support an informed decision one could easily make the case that something like the WHS with a decent two decade history of paying an average of 21 cps showing close to a 9% gross yield is a vastly more proven proposition and come up with a case this deserves a 300 basis point premium to that, at least.  12% required rate of return on a 4 cent fully imputed divvy gets you back to 46 cents.

Hi Basil what is your basis for deciding that the mfb business is reliant on a covid tailwind or has been ,I would be interested to know

[Basil]

Hi Basil what is your basis for deciding that the mfb business is reliant on a covid tailwind or has been ,I would be interested to know

I think its easy to forget now that case numbers are down to a couple of thousand a day that at times it was 20,000+ a day a few months back and a lot of people were scared to go to the supermarket.  Also last year the Delta outbreak and 107 day Auckland region lockdown would have greatly increased people's propensity to have food delivered.

[Auto Rower]

I think its easy to forget now that case numbers are down to a couple of thousand a day that at times it was 20,000+ a day a few months back and a lot of people were scared to go to the supermarket.  Also last year the Delta outbreak and 107 day Auckland region lockdown would have greatly increased people's propensity to have food delivered.

I can see your point of view Basil ,but I do not think it would of changed peoples eating habits junk food addict's still getting their uber /menulog etc and new world & the supermarkets doing well in food deliveries of the staples .
Certainly a 5 year divi history would be nice but we will have to wait for that .

[Basil]

For much of the 107 day Auckland lockdown you couldn't get home deliveries from supermarkets unless you were really old and vulnerable and met strict eligibility criteria.  I know, I tired many times with different supermarkets. From memory you had to be 70+.  I also got shut out of click and collect as supermarkets have limited capability on the front too.

We resorted to getting some staples deliveries from WHS but ordering ~$200 of staples and them arriving via 5 different couriers on 5 different days was far from ideal.

I think FY24 might give us a handle on what their normalised earnings are unless of course we get more Covid variants.

[Whacc]

Well said and it should have been obvious to any experienced investor the company enjoyed huge tailwinds from Covid in the year leading up to its float which makes the way the promotors targeted first time naïve investors and customers extolling them to "tuck in" all the more reprehensible.
Little did these "blind Freddy" investors know that they were the ones on the menu!
   

To be fair, there were some very experienced institutional investors, who should have known better, that went in pretty big at the IPO too.
Sucked into thinking that stagging IPOs, regardless of price/value, is a no lose strategy.

And they are the guys (i.e. the ultimate marginal investors) who end up being responsible for the price that JLM investment bankers think they can get the IPO away at.  So I blame their ignorance and greed just as much as the IBs.

I don't really ascribe much blame, if any, to Waterman Capital as vendors.
This was their first IPO exit and they would have been heavily reliant upon whatever their advisors suggested.  They would have wanted it to be a success to establish their credibility for future IPO exits.

[Minimoke]

Use the reply button rather than Quote or Quick Reply.

Thanks. Finally found it. "Reply at the top. Not "Quick reply" at the bottom.