NZX 50 Index - Forthcoming potential Changes.

[bulltrap]

Thanks for that bulltrap. 
Ive always struggled to pull the right website to show me this info.  Today I tried chatgtp as I wasn't sure.  I even asked if it was sure. It's why I dont trust it for info.  More as a confirmer of information I already know.  I didn't wait around today and sold out of resturant brands. It's only 15 cents.  So I can put it in other things.

Totally agree. As the saying goes, a bird in the hand is worth more than 1.03 in the bush. Especially if it's already seasoned and fried.

I'm also yet to find a good public source of NZX 50 index constituents. There's one at interest.co.nz that is actively maintained and looks correct on which companies are included, but not on their percentage weightings or rankings - e.g. BGP is at #27 but should be more like #49 when adjusted for free-float.

Forsyth Barr puts out a liquidity analysis piece each quarter (e.g. Sep 2025, Jun 2025) that includes the up-to-date constituents and their rankings. They subscribe to the official data from S&P, and also do their own modelling, so this should be dependable - but it isn't at a fixed URL, and not strictly public as you need a client web account.

[Greekwatchdog]

This ex For Bar

S&P DJI has confirmed no constituent changes will be made to the S&P/NZX 50 benchmark indices, whilst announcing one change in the S&P/NZX 20 index in the latest December 2025 quarterly index review. Changes are effective close of market Friday, 19 December 2025.

GNE enters the S&P/NZX 20 Index
Gentrack Group (GTK) will exit the S&P/NZX 20 index, having dropped below the automatic exclusion threshold for the six-month average free-float market cap. This has allowed Genesis Energy (GNE) to enter. We expect passive demand for GNE to be in the order of +2.5m shares (6x average daily volume [ADV]). Selling in GTK will be in the order of -0.5m shares (4x ADV).

[winner (n)]

Another review of indices due in next week or so

Who might get into NZX50? Or kicked out?

[Greekwatchdog]

Another review of indices due in next week or so

Who might get into NZX50? Or kicked out?

For Bar put out a note recently and said no changes

[bulltrap]

For Bar put out a note recently and said no changes

For Bar put out a note recently and said no changes

I took up some business with ForBar with their index commentary as a perk. Here's my take on their latest update (here if you have access):

• No changes to NZX50 or other S&P NZX indices expected
• VSL still iffy on meeting liquidity requirements, but expected to pass
• ERD is still next in line, followed by SEK, PEB, RAK and then SMI

I get the impression that ForBar doesn't know for sure if VSL passed liquidity in the Dec 2025 review. If it actually failed, it's likely it fails again, which would trigger VSL exit with ERD replacing it. Consider it an outside chance.

If ERD doesn't make it this time, I expect it'll lose its front-runner spot for the next review. It went 'parabolic' last year, and its September high of NZ$2.94 is still in the 6-month pricing window, giving it an average price (per ForBar) of $1.76. But then it literally went parabolic back to ground zero, down to around $0.90 this week. The average price is already following it down.

Meanwhile, PEB is on the resurgent, and the bull-bait case for the year is that it could regain both Medicare coverage and its spot on the NZX 50.

That said, let me make a case for SMI. Its primary listing is in Australia, so only some fraction of its free-float counts towards NZX index rankings. ForBar apparently have this fraction a bit under 25% - again, not sure if they get this from S&P or their own modelling. But I think this number is on the low side, noting that SMI's traded volume on the NZX is closer to a third of NZX+ASX, and that by mid-2024 when the NZX listing was announced over 40% of the share registry had NZ addresses.

The 'IWF' fraction actually used, according to the index methodology, comes from the number of shares registered in NZ. That's influenced by whether NZ-based investors bothered going through the tedious (and perhaps pointless) process of shunting their holdings over. I'm not aware of these numbers being available publicly, and S&P might get privileged info from the share registry (MUFG in this case) or maybe the exchanges.

(As an aside, until 2023 the IWF would've been based instead on what proportion of revenue came from NZ.)

The combined effects for SMI of an upward IWF revision, cap raisings, and further upward price moves, could easily put it in pole position for the June 2026 review.

Disc: Holding ERD through the potholes. It's been good to me in the past and my holding is all free carry. PEB likewise. Also holding SMI.

[seaweed]

I took up some business with ForBar with their index commentary as a perk. Here's my take on their latest update (here if you have access):

• No changes to NZX50 or other S&P NZX indices expected
• VSL still iffy on meeting liquidity requirements, but expected to pass
• ERD is still next in line, followed by SEK, PEB, RAK and then SMI

I get the impression that ForBar doesn't know for sure if VSL passed liquidity in the Dec 2025 review. If it actually failed, it's likely it fails again, which would trigger VSL exit with ERD replacing it. Consider it an outside chance.

If ERD doesn't make it this time, I expect it'll lose its front-runner spot for the next review. It went 'parabolic' last year, and its September high of NZ$2.94 is still in the 6-month pricing window, giving it an average price (per ForBar) of $1.76. But then it literally went parabolic back to ground zero, down to around $0.90 this week. The average price is already following it down.

Meanwhile, PEB is on the resurgent, and the bull-bait case for the year is that it could regain both Medicare coverage and its spot on the NZX 50.

That said, let me make a case for SMI. Its primary listing is in Australia, so only some fraction of its free-float counts towards NZX index rankings. ForBar apparently have this fraction a bit under 25% - again, not sure if they get this from S&P or their own modelling. But I think this number is on the low side, noting that SMI's traded volume on the NZX is closer to a third of NZX+ASX, and that by mid-2024 when the NZX listing was announced over 40% of the share registry had NZ addresses.

The 'IWF' fraction actually used, according to the index methodology, comes from the number of shares registered in NZ. That's influenced by whether NZ-based investors bothered going through the tedious (and perhaps pointless) process of shunting their holdings over. I'm not aware of these numbers being available publicly, and S&P might get privileged info from the share registry (MUFG in this case) or maybe the exchanges.

(As an aside, until 2023 the IWF would've been based instead on what proportion of revenue came from NZ.)

The combined effects for SMI of an upward IWF revision, cap raisings, and further upward price moves, could easily put it in pole position for the June 2026 review.

Disc: Holding ERD through the potholes. It's been good to me in the past and my holding is all free carry. PEB likewise. Also holding SMI.

You mentioned SEK in your list. They doing pretty well lately. 2 divs over 2 months and another due next month.

[bulltrap]

You mentioned SEK in your list. They doing pretty well lately. 2 divs over 2 months and another due next month.

Supposing things go sideways from here, SEK falls behind PEB pretty soon. Getting a place needs a couple of surprise exits, and no new big listings.

It would've been a fantastic long-term hold for the last couple of years - doubling share price and good dividends. But on the face of it, retaining the earnings might be more helpful for getting in the index.

[Fiordland Moose]

I took up some business with ForBar with their index commentary as a perk. Here's my take on their latest update (here if you have access):

• No changes to NZX50 or other S&P NZX indices expected
• VSL still iffy on meeting liquidity requirements, but expected to pass
• ERD is still next in line, followed by SEK, PEB, RAK and then SMI

I get the impression that ForBar doesn't know for sure if VSL passed liquidity in the Dec 2025 review. If it actually failed, it's likely it fails again, which would trigger VSL exit with ERD replacing it. Consider it an outside chance.

If ERD doesn't make it this time, I expect it'll lose its front-runner spot for the next review. It went 'parabolic' last year, and its September high of NZ$2.94 is still in the 6-month pricing window, giving it an average price (per ForBar) of $1.76. But then it literally went parabolic back to ground zero, down to around $0.90 this week. The average price is already following it down.

Meanwhile, PEB is on the resurgent, and the bull-bait case for the year is that it could regain both Medicare coverage and its spot on the NZX 50.

That said, let me make a case for SMI. Its primary listing is in Australia, so only some fraction of its free-float counts towards NZX index rankings. ForBar apparently have this fraction a bit under 25% - again, not sure if they get this from S&P or their own modelling. But I think this number is on the low side, noting that SMI's traded volume on the NZX is closer to a third of NZX+ASX, and that by mid-2024 when the NZX listing was announced over 40% of the share registry had NZ addresses.

The 'IWF' fraction actually used, according to the index methodology, comes from the number of shares registered in NZ. That's influenced by whether NZ-based investors bothered going through the tedious (and perhaps pointless) process of shunting their holdings over. I'm not aware of these numbers being available publicly, and S&P might get privileged info from the share registry (MUFG in this case) or maybe the exchanges.

(As an aside, until 2023 the IWF would've been based instead on what proportion of revenue came from NZ.)

The combined effects for SMI of an upward IWF revision, cap raisings, and further upward price moves, could easily put it in pole position for the June 2026 review.

Disc: Holding ERD through the potholes. It's been good to me in the past and my holding is all free carry. PEB likewise. Also holding SMI.

Thank you for the excellent commentary

[bulltrap]

S&P's NZX index review for March 2026 just in.

No changes! How exciting.

[bulltrap]

... the ASX 200 index review is also out now, with EBOS dropping out being the highlight for NZX watchers.

That's due for close on Friday March 19th.

It was only just added in the September 2025 review, so this is a nasty little rug pull for EBO holders, including ETFs who will be forced to sell low after buying high. (Edit: actually the ETFs got a lucky break buying in 33% down from then-recent highs... but even then, latest prices suggest a 20%+ haircut on that six-month hold.)

I suppose this instability is partly due to the recent shift to 3-month average prices for index ranking for S&P ASX indices, down from six months. The NZX still uses six months, which IMO is better as it blends across two review periods.

One thing I noticed is that exits on the ASX are often anticipated by a buildup of short positions over several months, which I interpret as instos buffering the exit. An example is CAT whose exit was just announced - shorts up from 3% at the December review to 6.5% now. In the case of EBO, the short position is quite small, so it may be harder to re-home the ex-ETF holdings. But maybe the rules or dynamic is different for dual-listed shares.

[Scooter]

In the asx all ordinaries these are removals. Looks like it's on the back of all the mineral companies going up in big values. So nzx companies taking the hit
Air New Zealand
Ike gps
Michael hill
Nzme
Vista

[bulltrap]

Strange that S&P only shows the ASX 200 changes on their announcement page.

So far I can only see the full ASX release in ASX news for some of the affected companies.

Something positive buried in amongst all the dual-listed exits... SMI being added to the ASX 300.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar update

Updating the Forsyth Barr Quant inclusion/exclusion model

Rolling forward current pricing and assuming current liquidity calculations hold, our model suggests the June 2026 index review will also see no changes to the headline S&P/NZX indices.

However, that being said, Vulcan Steel (VSL) continues to walk the liquidity tightrope. There has also been a change in the leaderboard for non-indexed companies.

Using rolled forward pricing, the highest-ranked (by free float six-month average market cap) non-indexed company is now Seeka (SEK), closely followed by Pacific Edge (PEB).

We note that although Rakon (RAK) ranks as the highest non-index member, it is currently under takeover and we have therefore looked to the next candidates.

[bulltrap]

Taking another look at my mocked-up NZX 50 standings, roughly mid-cycle... while there's a lot going wrong in the world, the most consequential boo-boo in this niche has been KMD announcing that its apparel business is effectively pants, and launching a deeply-discounted and dilutionary capital raise to try and stitch it up.

At last count after S&P's March review, KMD was tipped to be squarely in last place in the NZX 50, and already ranking below several contenders to take its spot. So there was already a big question of if and when KMD might drop out and be replaced.

Important detail: Paraphrasing the S&P NZX Indices methodology, when the index review rolls around, if a laggard such as KMD ranks 56th or worse over a six-month window, it gets the boot.

When KMD resumed trading on 2nd April following its cap raise announcement, its share price dropped from 19.5c last traded, to close at 8.8c. Based on the number of shares actually on issue, that gave it a market cap of only around $63M, and a ranking of dead last across the whole NZX for free-float for that particular day. (There are smaller companies, but none that ace the trading liquidity requirements for index inclusion.)

At that point, it's tempting to declare KMD gone-burgers in the coming June index review, and pass the mantle to SEK as the likely replacement - and some have been saying just that, including Seeka's CEO.

But that scenario hinges on the bonkers outcome that by raising $65M (underwritten, no less), KMD somehow ends up worth significantly less than before the raise - despite boosting capital by almost 50%, compared to its pre-raise market cap of $139M.

Bonkers as it may seem, at today's close price of $0.066, the market is signalling that once the deal is done, with 1.8B total shares on issue, KMD will only be worth $119M. That is, $65M of proverbial 'good money' thrown in with $20M of 'bad'.

To be fair, KMD management did serve the market several courses of dog's breakfast all at once. So let's assume the repricing is justified, and not just a knee-jerk reaction.

Taking KMD's free-float ratio ('IWF' in the index calc) to be 0.93 and assuming the cap raise doesn't change it by much, this puts KMD's free-float at around $110M, behind credible replacement candidates SEK, SMI, PEB and ERD, and partying with the likes of NZM, DGL, AFT and NZL. It'd only take two of the latter bunch to meet trading liquidity requirements (they're all borderline), not fall victim to a takeover attempt, and nudge ahead on free-float, to push KMD down to 56th.

So the answer to the if question is 'maybe', and the answer to the when should be 'let's see'...

This is very sensitive to the details of how S&P calculate market cap for ranking purposes, the main points being:

- a trailing six-month window is considered - history matters, not just the latest standings
- prices are adjusted for corporate actions, before averaging
- average price is multiplied by the latest count of outstanding shares, to get the average market cap
- market cap is scaled down to isolate the free-float

The handling of corporate action price adjustment is documented in Equity Indices Policies & Practices, but takes some second-guessing to interpret.

For the KMD situation:

- About 70% of the window for the June review falls prior to the cap raise
- My best guess (see footnote): pre-raise prices should be scaled down to about 0.58x, consistent with scaling that 19.5c down to the TERP of 11.3c
- Shares outstanding was about 712M pre-raise, and expected to bloat to 1.8B, scaling by a factor of 2.53x.

Combining the effect of downward price adjustment with new share issue, the historical pre-raise market cap considered for index ranking is treated as being 47% higher than it actually was.

That's another bonkers result, rewarding rather than punishing, and it puts KMD back up to 50th place for the June review at current prices. It gets to stay in even if it trades at $0.001 henceforth.

It's doubly-bonkers that this historical revision even applies to the three-month window overlap that S&P already considered for the March review.

Ideally S&P would consider the actual market cap history to avoid such aberrations - all that would technically require is a daily feed of shares outstanding. On those terms, KMD's chances in the June review would be too close to call.

Summing up, KMD looks pretty safe for the June review, largely due to silly technicalities, unless perhaps S&P can make a discretionary call to drop them.

For September and beyond, I think the chances of KMD dropping out are going to be high, particularly if they stay in the sub-10c range. But it's too soon to tip a likely replacement.

Footnote: Market data sources I checked generally now show the 25th March close price as 11.7c, scaled down from the original 19.5c. That's consistent with a TERP calculated from a 1-for-0.73 rights issue, but different from the 11.3c TERP given by KMD based on shovelling the placement in with the rights. I think S&P will use the latter TERP (see 'Accelerated Rights Offering' in the S&P doc), but I do have some doubt around whether the adjustment is really by scaling as opposed to subtracting. For current purposes the choice of adjustment formula doesn't matter, KMD ends up safely around 50th place in June review projections.