NZX 50 Index - Forthcoming potential Changes.

[Basil]

Opps, apologies, I think you are right Shareguy.  Matariki day, is on 20 June so the markets will probably be closed, so index rebalance is on 19 June.

[Basil]

So the next index change is upon us imminently with Manawa shareholders voting to take the scheme implementation agreement and its provisionally scheduled to be suspended from trading on the NZX on 7 July, which is Monday week, so not far away !

With NZX usually giving 4-5 working days notice of change it would appear whoever is going to replace Manawa in the NZX50 is highly likely to be announced very early next week, (if it hasn't already and I have missed it ?)

Forsyth Barr are picking NPH.  It was interesting to see Briscoes come in for a huge run after its index inclusion was announced.  Could the same happen for NPH next week ?  I guess we will see.
Disc: Small position in NPH.

[Poet]

So the next index change is upon us imminently with Manawa shareholders voting to take the scheme implementation agreement and its provisionally scheduled to be suspended from trading on the NZX on 7 July, which is Monday week, so not far away !

With NZX usually giving 4-5 working days notice of change it would appear whoever is going to replace Manawa in the NZX50 is highly likely to be announced very early next week, (if it hasn't already and I have missed it ?)

Forsyth Barr are picking NPH.  It was interesting to see Briscoes come in for a huge run after its index inclusion was announced.  Could the same happen for NPH next week ?  I guess we will see.
Disc: Small position in NPH.

Will be some interesting index movements as a $2 billion cap company replaced with a $350m cap company. Should see all other nzx50 components increase their weightings

[Basil]

Will be some interesting index movements as a $2 billion cap company replaced with a $350m cap company. Should see all other nzx50 components increase their weightings

Not sure it's going to be quite as dramatic as that as it's based on free float market cap so Infratil's stake in Manawa would have been excluded for NZX50 market weight calculations but yes, you make a very good point about other index constituents reweightings. Next week could be quite interesting.

[Left Field]

Speaking of index inclusion bumps.

IFT heading for ASX50 inclusion later this year.....possibly Sept according to CFO of Morrisons at a recent S/Holders meeting.

Quite a big deal apparently.

[Basil]

Confirmation as Forsyth Barr predicted, Manawa Energy out of the NZX, Napier Port in, effective prior to open on Tuesday 8 July.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/454260/attachment/446615/454260-446615.pdf

[bulltrap]

Confirmation as Forsyth Barr predicted, Manawa Energy out of the NZX, Napier Port in, effective prior to open on Tuesday 8 July.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/454260/attachment/446615/454260-446615.pdf

Congratulations NPH! Long time spent knocking on that door.

That puts ERD squarely next in line, maybe as a replacement for THL if takeover goes ahead.

After that, who knows what might get trawled from the depths of the NZX? It'll depend very much on S&P's dubious implementation of their own relative liquidity test. I'd put NZM and SPY next on free-float cap, but unlikely candidates due to low liquidity and/or being current targets for acquisition. Then there's RBD, maybe SEK, even STU or NZL.

The wildcard in the deck is PEB... it could jump out of the box with any news of Medicare coverage reinstatement, with the pending cap raise as a force multiplier.

Disc: holding NPH and ERD, while juggling PEB with my feet.

[winner (n)]

Briscoes down 17% since inclusion day

But at $5.20 still a pretty respectable price

Just highlights what inclusion can do ...maybe we need to feel sorry for the funds who bought an over priced share ...hopefully off stocktalk punters

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar's thoughts

S&P DJI has announced that Manawa Energy (MNW) will be removed from the benchmark S&P/NZX 50 indices, subject to the final court approval of the scheme of arrangement, whereby the company will be acquired by Contact Energy (CEN). Napier Port Holdings (NPH) has been confirmed to replace MNW in the S&P/NZX 50 benchmark indices, effective close of market, Monday, 7 July 2025.

Napier Port Holdings confirmed to enter the S&P/NZX 50 benchmark indices
Napier Port Holdings (NPH) is confirmed as the replacement for MNW in the benchmark S&P/NZX 50 and 50 Portfolio indices, with expected weights of 0.23% (rank 48) and 0.36% (rank 48) respectively. We expect passive demand for NPH will be in the order of ~3.8m shares (48x average daily volume [ADV]). MNW will exit at the last traded price on the effective date.


The (new) current status
Figure 2 outlines our current calculations for inclusion and exclusion in the benchmark S&P/NZX 50 indices. Our updated model now has EROAD (ERD) as the next cab off the rank, should any existing index member drop out. We note Vulcan Steel (VSL) continues to be on liquidity watch and is at risk of being removed from the benchmark 50 indices due to a lack of liquidity.

[Basil]

But at $5.20 still a pretty respectable price

This is probably not the right thread for this but for what its worth I can't get my head around Briscoes share price.  Trades on a historic PE of 19.1 at $5.20 but where's the growth to support such a metric ?  Over my standard 5 year analysis timeframe I note EPS in FY20 of 28 cps and in FY25 of 27 cps.

That compares to HLG over the same timeframe growing EPS from 45 cps to forecasted 62 cps in FY25 a CAGR of 6.5% and trades on a historic PE 14.6.
I think its clear that "Blind Freddy" can tell you Glassons Au growth prospects are vastly better than Briscoes and it has a proven track record of growth but trades on a significantly lower metric.

Briscoes valuation looks even worse compared to Turners which trades on a historic PE of 16.1 but a forecast next year's (FY27) PE of 13.2 and yet despite this modest forward metric has grown eps from 24 cps to 43 cps over the same timeframe a CAGR of just over 12%

I do note that analysts think Briscoes can grow earnings to 30 cps next year, 32 cents in FY27 and 35 cps in FY28, presumably on the back of households having more discretionary spend with lower interest rates but if they do make 35 cps in FY28 at that stage of the economic cycle that's still 5 cents lower earnings than the last time interest rates bottomed in FY22 when they made 39 cps.  Where's the growth and what's the investment case on a PE of 19 ?  I don't see it.  By my reckoning Briscoes is a no growth cyclical stock that deserves a PE of 8.5.  Maybe if Briscoes has a 60% off sale of its own shares I will buy some lol.

 

[bulltrap]

No change and no surprises in S&P NZX indexes for September 2025.

[bulltrap]

There are some changes to S&P ASX indexes for dual-listed companies though. These are posted as company announcements on the ASX, but apparently not on the NZX.

Effective close Friday 19th September:

• EBO add to ASX 200
• SKC remove from ASX 300
• ERD add to ASX All Technology Index

Fun fact: S&P averages six months of price data for NZX index rankings, but starting from this rebalance, this is reduced to three months for ASX. So ERD's recent upward rerates have double the effect on the ASX, which likely helped it over the line.

EBO and SKC both had significant drops right about the end of the price window, so they don't factor significantly here. That's unlike MSCI indexes, which use a single recent day's closing price.

[Scooter]

With restaurant brands highly likely to leave the nzx50 once takeover complete. Does this put erd in prime postion?
Just a add onto this post from earlier today.  I'm guessing others have cottoned on to this

[bulltrap]

With restaurant brands highly likely to leave the nzx50 once takeover complete. Does this put erd in prime postion?
Just a add onto this post from earlier today.  I'm guessing others have cottoned on to this

RBD has been out of the NZX 50 since March 2023.

If RBD is delisted, that doesn't help ERD get in sooner, but it should make it within the next year one way or another.

After ERD makes it in though, RBD had been looking like a contender for readmission. With both out of the way, I'm leaning a bit more towards SEK or (optimistic outside chance) PEB to follow. Still too early for a trade, but never too early to invest.

Disc: Holding ERD and PEB... regrettably missed out on RBD

[Scooter]

RBD has been out of the NZX 50 since March 2023.

If RBD is delisted, that doesn't help ERD get in sooner, but it should make it within the next year one way or another.

After ERD makes it in though, RBD had been looking like a contender for readmission. With both out of the way, I'm leaning a bit more towards SEK or (optimistic outside chance) PEB to follow. Still too early for a trade, but never too early to invest.

Disc: Holding ERD and PEB... regrettably missed out on RBD

Thanks for that bulltrap. 
Ive always struggled to pull the right website to show me this info.   Today I tried chatgtp as I wasn't sure.   I even asked if it was sure. It's why I dont trust it for info.  More as a confirmer of information I already know.  I didn't wait around today and sold out of resturant brands. It's only 15 cents.  So I can put it in other things.