NZX 50 Index - Forthcoming potential Changes.

[bulltrap]

September NZX rebalance is another fizzer - no changes of note.

Those tipped NZX50 liquidity exits aren't happening for some reason. Nevertheless, on the free float capitalisation rankings, TWR must be getting very close to bumping SAN or WHS out.

(I'm consulting Yahoo! Finance for its Free Float figures, would be interested to hear if there's a better source.)

[Basil]

Bugger !  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUNJd06iyWU&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bing.com%2F&embeds_referring_origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bing.com&source_ve_path=MjM4NTE

[bulltrap]

NZX50 ARV -> TWR done and dusted!

The next tipped index hiccup is MSCI World tipped SPK -> IFT, which I spent much of the weekend convincing myself was really happening. I recently got stung buying some SPK thinking it's a bargain (maybe it is), but have now swapped half of it for IFT and hope to break even someday...

For the NZX50 December review, with ARV off the list, WHS is looking comfortable to stay in. All up, no changes expected.

After that though, MNW buyout and delist could come ahead of the NZX50 March 2025 review, at the earliest. I've got NPH first in line to replace it, but BGP is on a trajectory to take the lead, and ERD just needs to pull a U-ey to be back in the race.

At the March review, WHS exit on cap ranking, and SAN exit on relative liquidity, are distinct possibilities. VSL also continues to be dicey on liquidity, with most of its trading being on the ASX and therefore not counted.

I'd say NPH, BGP and ERD are all worth considering on their merits, with potential NZX50 inclusion in the next five months being a sweetener.

(This analysis hinges on my free-float numbers, which I may've copied from a cubicle wall somewhere in a daze.)

[Cod]

Geneva, November 06, 2024 MSCI GLOBAL SMALL CAP INDEXES

MSCI GLOBAL STANDARD INDEXES
Additions INFRATIL
Deletions SPARK NEW ZEALAND

MSCI NEW ZEALAND INDEX
Additions SPARK NEW ZEALAND
Deletions INFRATIL

MSCI GLOBAL MICRO CAP INDEXES
Additions GENESIS ENERGY
Deletions ACCORDANT GROUP

All changes will be implemented as of the close of November 25, 2024

[bulltrap]

S&P NZX rebalance for Dec 2024 is out. Much as expected, there are no changes.

I still suspect that VSL and SAN will have both failed relative liquidity tests by a whisker or two this time. That puts them 'on watch' for removal if they fail again in March.

(I'm not sure if S&P indicates this in their 'proforma files' to subscribers, but looking forward to broker commentary on this question - ForBar often have something to say.)

I also suspect that RYM is very close to dropping out of NZX10, with EBO being in front to replace it. But I don't think NZX10 changes impact the market much.

[bulltrap]

A week out from expected announcement S&P NZX rebalance for March 2025, I had another look at the standings.

Don't be surprised if:

• VSL drops out of NZX50 on second liquidity fail, replaced by NPH
• RYM drops out of NZX10 on float cap ranking, replaced by ATM (not EBO, which should already be in NZX10 - it's hard to find an up-to-date list)
• SAN stays in NZX50, thanks to better trading volume this quarter
• WHS stays in too - although ranking behind NPH, BPG and ERD, it's crucially ahead of RBD (narrowly) and STU

MNW takeover is still up in the air, but if it happens soon I'd expect BGP (almost put BPG!) to replace it in the NZX50. And I haven't heard of any new big listings in the pipeline.

[bulltrap]

S&P NZX rebalance for Mar 2025 is out.

The expected RYM->ATM change for NZX10 happened, but no changes to NZX50.

I'm puzzled as to how VSL squeaked through the relative liquidity test in either the December or March rebalance... will take another look at that.

Disc: I forgivably picked up some NPH recently in the hope of inclusion. Happy to continue holding, and NZX50 still looks more like a 'when' than an 'if'.

[bulltrap]

Some NZX-relevant changes to S&P ASX indices for Mar 2025 (3rd-party link) too:

• All Ords adding SMI, VGL
• All Ords removing KMD

Look to market close on Friday 21st March for NZX/ASX index fund rebalancing.

[BlackPeter]

Some NZX-relevant changes to S&P ASX indices for Mar 2025 (3rd-party link) too:

• All Ords adding SMI, VGL
• All Ords removing KMD

Look to market close on Friday 21st March for NZX/ASX index fund rebalancing.

More opportunities coming for ACC and NZ Superfund to keep filling their boots with KMD?

Remember - they just did ...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/447666
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/447565

But then ... how many Australian Index funds do hold KMD anyway?

[Cod]

A bit late - oops

The following are changes in constituents for the MSCI Global Standard Indexes which took place as of the close of February 28, 2025.

MSCI GLOBAL STANDARD INDEXES
Additions CONTACT ENERGY
Deletions MERCURY NZ

MSCI GLOBAL SMALL CAP INDEXES
Additions MERCURY NZ
Deletions CONTACT ENERGY

MSCI GLOBAL MICRO CAP INDEXES
Deletions GENESIS ENERGY

[bulltrap]

But then ... how many Australian Index funds do hold KMD anyway?

Not many, if any. At least, there are no ETFs that track the All Ords - Motley Fool discusses.

There is some money on the NZX10 though. Smart TNZ has around 1.25M RYM ($3.75M) to offload, to be replaced by around 1.5 times that value in ATM - let's say roughly $5.5M or 625K shares. More than a typical Friday's trading volume.

[Scooter]

Hey Basil. 
Looking ahead to the June rebalancing. It's looking like the WHS and KMD will drop out.  What do you think of BGP and NPH sneaking in this time 😁

[Basil]

Prospects for those changes look good to me Scooter but I think a lot of that is already in the BGP' share price. Haven't looked at NPH for a while.

[Scooter]

Thanks for that.  Where's the best info for looking at that sort of data.   I'd probably stay away from retail at the mo regardless of how good bgh. NPh I was one of the hawkesbay locals who Brought max allotment plus parents sold at 3.50 so I was quite happy. But I don't see it's divi return being very good.  Tower on the other hand as long as its all plain sailing it's a great hold for at least another 6 months. 

[Buzz]

Announced on March 7th, effective Monday March 24th, though not the NZX50 (ATM is already on it), RYM has been removed and replaced with ATM on S&P/NZX 10 Index and the S&P/NZX Midcap Index.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/448076/attachment/439244/448076-439244.pdf