Fisher Funds stocks

[Shareguy]

I suspect the choices depend on individuals investing time-line..... eg KiwiSaver/ETF/Milford great for young investors, but less relevant of retired investors.

Likewise the weighting of your total portfolio in such 'bond equivalents' will change over time and should be reviewed regularly.

There is an opportunity cost if you tie too much of your funds in areas that are 'too conservative.'

Whatever stage you are at, it is important to set average annual return goals for your funds/investments/shares  and review them regularly. 

(Disc - have never used Fisher Funds tho' have used ETF's. As a retiree I hold only shares, cash and property.)
 

Agree it's very important your comment. "Whatever stage you are at, it is important to set average annual return goals for your funds/investments/shares  and review them regularly"

The most important rule in my opinion that many don't follow is diversification. Better to get rich slowly than risk losing capital.

[Shareguy]

bloody hell I have just caught up with the BRM share price, what a disaster that is for an investment fund.
Mixed feelings about it as I sold down my rather large (beagle size) chunk late last year, it was 30% of my investment portfolio then but only 5% this year, still the performance is so bad this year it will hurt over all returns quite badly for the year if things don't pick up.
A bit further on this, my decision to sell down last year was based on their portfolio having to much of their funds in stocks with massive PE's, XRO and WTC, as well as the fund managers seem to be doing little to adjust their portfolio. If you look at the BRM holdings very little has changed in the top 10 holdings for a couple of years.   

Snapiti, I don't think Fishers are that good. Their shares and Kiwi saver performance is not flash. As you pointed out they buy a share and hold onto it. They may well be right in the likes of BRM who have suffered the same fate as many funds holding Aust growth company's. Most of them that I follow are not selling either and in a number of cases have been busy buying on the way down. This suggests they are expecting the shares to go back to high multiples. Time will tell if they are right or wrong.

[Left Field]

Agree it's very important your comment. "Whatever stage you are at, it is important to set average annual return goals for your funds/investments/shares  and review them regularly"

The most important rule in my opinion that many don't follow is diversification. Better to get rich slowly than risk losing capital.

Mmmmmm Diversification or Di-worse-ification.  Many investors over-diversify and wonder why they get poor returns.

Guru investor Kiora only has 2 shares in his NZX portfolio. FPH @ 20% and IFT @ 80%.  Check his average returns over the last 10yrs. They are impressive.

Maybe just 2 shares is too risky, but you get the idea.

Sometimes less is more. ( Disc 8 companies in my NZX portfolio.)

[snapiti]

I agree with what you are saying, being to conservative especially with sticky higher end inflation can move the dial towards very low real returns.
Also the tax structure in NZ for term deposits and bond interest payments seems to eat away a lot of the real returns for these conservative positions.
I am in my mid 50's and enjoy a semi retired lifestyle, I do find setting a yoy % return on a very diversified portfolio, forestry, property, managed funds (ballanced portfolio), bonds a good way to sleep easy especially when BRM 5% is performing really badly.
Goal for me is 7% after tax, currently not on target for this so hopefully a stronger 2nd half. 

[snapiti]

Mmmmmm Diversification or Di-worse-ification.  Many investors over-diversify and wonder why they get poor returns.

Guru investor Kiora only has 2 shares in his NZX portfolio. FPH @ 20% and IFT @ 80%.  Check his average returns over the last 10yrs. They are impressive.

Maybe just 2 shares is too risky, but you get the idea.

Sometimes less is more. ( Disc 8 companies in my NZX portfolio.)

so what is a reasonable  after tax return? (in a 3% inflation environment )INFLATION MATTERS BIG TIME, I see no point in holding term deposits @ 4.5%(after tax 3%) in a 3% inflation environment
My goal has always been to beat inflation by at least 5%, but have average 8%. Now in saying this my goals have shrunk this year as my position has shifted to a more defensive portfolio

[Basil]

my decision to sell down last year was based on their portfolio having to much of their funds in stocks with massive PE's, XRO and WTC,

I publicly called out Robbie Urquart investment manager of Barramundi during the Q&A session of the 2024 annual meeting on 30 October 2024 about their investment in those two companies which were trading on triple digit PE's.  He couldn't have been more dismissive if he'd had a full hour to prepare.  It was like watching water slide off a ducks back.  I realized at that point they only paid lip service to their STEPP mandate.   XRO was A$148 then and is now $A69, worse than halved.  WTC was then $118, now $35, lost more than two thirds of its value but what would I know... This is the final part of their STEPP mandate.

P - Price - Valuation

How much of the future earnings growth is already reflected in the share price? Where does the current share price sit in relation to Fisher Funds' worst to best case valuation range? A company will generate a higher score where the market price currently reflects little of that company's upside potential.

Holding stocks that are on triple digit PE's that are growing EPS at 20-30% makes no common sense to me whatsoever and is completely at odds with their stated STEPP criteria. I genuinely wonder what the investment management team do all day ?  They so rarely change their investment positions you'd think a single person could manage their entire portfolio that way by working one day a week.  I really think the Toi foundation who own 66% of Fisher Funds should step in and replace the entire board and investment management team.

[Dolcile]

oh dear

Marlin's gross performance return for the second quarter (Q2) was
+2.0%, while the adjusted NAV return was +1.4%. This compared with
our global benchmark, the S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was +15.4%.

[Basil]

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/476331/attachment/472755/476331-472755.pdf  Gosh, the 3 year performance of 3.1% is ludicrously below the benchmark at 20.0% and the 5 year also at -1.5% with the benchmark at 11.7%.  You'd be forgiven for wondering how bad does it need to get before the board steps in and replaces the fund manager ?  That's a great question to ask at the forthcoming annual meeting.

[Gerald]

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/476331/attachment/472755/476331-472755.pdf  Gosh, the 3 year performance of 3.1% is ludicrously below the benchmark at 20.0% and the 5 year also at -1.5% with the benchmark at 11.7%.  You'd be forgiven for wondering how bad does it need to get before the board steps in and replaces the fund manager ?  That's a great question to ask at the forthcoming annual meeting.

Might have a hard time, the guy running it is the "chief investment officer" of Fisher.

Some of the post hoc writing these fund managers do is so transparent - ie, bagging the SOXX ETF on the 20th of July for your June letter when you know full well that month to date July semiconducters have dropped like ~15%. Maybe these guys could be a little more brave and either offer predictions about things that are yet to happen, or just apologise for being wrong/missing something when you hold yourself to a benchmark index.

[LoungeLizard]

MLN: Yield (12%) Discount (10%)
KFL: Yield (9%) Discount (6%)
BRM: Yield (11.5%) Discount (11%)

A diversified fund/stock showing very high yields and a substantial discount to NAV should be attracting investors. And yet...

I wonder if Kingfisher will ever address its chronic underperformance, hold its managers accountable (ie sack them) and modify its investment approach? It can't be happy with the state of things yet seems to be telling the market that it's business as usual. Hence the market giving it the finger.

At these levels I'd be interested, particularly in KFL (the "best" performing) but only if Kingfisher takes its head out of the sand (or somewhere else!) and starts turning things around. Could be a long wait though.

[Left Field]

MLN: Yield (12%) Discount (10%)
KFL: Yield (9%) Discount (6%)
BRM: Yield (11.5%) Discount (11%)

A diversified fund/stock showing very high yields and a substantial discount to NAV should be attracting investors. And yet...

I wonder if Kingfisher will ever address its chronic underperformance, hold its managers accountable (ie sack them) and modify its investment approach? It can't be happy with the state of things yet seems to be telling the market that it's business as usual. Hence the market giving it the finger.

At these levels I'd be interested, particularly in KFL (the "best" performing) but only if Kingfisher takes its head out of the sand (or somewhere else!) and starts turning things around. Could be a long wait though.

FWIW - I have never held any of these and the following quote from Kiora on the other channel, sums up the reason why I prefer to own real shares in the key companies.

Kiora's comparing the long term performance of FPH and IFT shares versus MLN  in  a trust he set up for a relative.

For sisters trust $10000 was invested in IFT around 2009. With taking up all share offers ( not sure the total cost of these) that holding is now worth $304,800

"Also at same time $10,000 in FPH now worth $160,000

And to satisfy other trustees $10,000 into MLN now worth $7650 (that is correct !) plus $600?/yr dividends EEEK !

[LoungeLizard]

FWIW - I have never held any of these and the following quote from Kiora on the other channel, sums up the reason why I prefer to own real shares in the key companies.

Kiora's comparing the long term performance of FPH and IFT shares versus MLN  in  a trust he set up for a relative.

For sisters trust $10000 was invested in IFT around 2009. With taking up all share offers ( not sure the total cost of these) that holding is now worth $304,800

"Also at same time $10,000 in FPH now worth $160,000

And to satisfy other trustees $10,000 into MLN now worth $7650 (that is correct !) plus $600?/yr dividends EEEK !

Yep, you certainly can't argue with those figures!
I've been in both IFT and FPH for quite a while myself and they form the backbone of my equities.

Kiora's remarkable success with just two stocks is rare and probably the exception to the rule about diversification. If you get it right you will naturally out-perform any diversified portfolio, but the risk of getting it wrong and losing a great deal of wealth in the process is too high in my opinion. By the same token a diversified fund can also destroy wealth (see Fishers).

[Dolcile]

MLN: Yield (12%) Discount (10%)
KFL: Yield (9%) Discount (6%)
BRM: Yield (11.5%) Discount (11%)

A diversified fund/stock showing very high yields and a substantial discount to NAV should be attracting investors. And yet...

I wonder if Kingfisher will ever address its chronic underperformance, hold its managers accountable (ie sack them) and modify its investment approach? It can't be happy with the state of things yet seems to be telling the market that it's business as usual. Hence the market giving it the finger.

At these levels I'd be interested, particularly in KFL (the "best" performing) but only if Kingfisher takes its head out of the sand (or somewhere else!) and starts turning things around. Could be a long wait though.

I'd just ignore the yield figures, they are just paying out your capital.