Fisher Funds stocks

[777]

Two updates of NAV this week.

 The next NAV per share announcement will be the 31 December 2024
month end NAV per share, which will be announced to the NZX and posted to the
Kingfish website (kingfish.co.nz) on 6 January 2025. The regular weekly
NAV announcements will resume from Thursday 9 January 2025.

[winner (n)]

Kingfish NAV 31/12 was 1.4802

Up 13.1% over calendar year

NZX50 up 11.4%

Suppose we can say Peek's stock selection saw them beat the benchmark but one has to admit he's not a very active investor and one could say the 'outperformance' is mainly due to luck

Hopefully 2025 will be a lucky year for Peek

[Dolcile]

Winner why do you say the outperformance was due to luck?

[winner (n)]

Winner why do you say the outperformance was due to luck?

Look at portfolio weightings relative to the weighting of the stocks in NZX50 .....one would say that they are not far off being a passive fund rather than 'active'

Then again you could say they were lucky in not having the likes of FBU and SPK in the portfolio

[Basil]

It's not luck. It's careful stock selection.  There's many stocks they won't hold because of management ineptitude such as FBU or because the business model is severely handicapped like OCA with care.

Total performance for the year to 30 Nov was 26% incl divvies, an 11% outperformance of the NZX50, see post #143

[Basil]

Kingfish NAV 31/12 was 1.4802

Up 13.1% over calendar year + 8% divvies paid = total return of 21.1%

NZX50 up 11.4%

Suppose we can say Peek's stock selection saw them beat the benchmark but one has to admit he's not a very active investor and one could say the 'outperformance' is mainly due to luck

Hopefully 2025 will be a lucky year for Peek

Nearly 10% market outperformance is not luck mate, its skill.

[Ferg]

Then again you could say they were lucky in not having the likes of FBU and SPK in the portfolio

I would call that skill rather than luck.  Next cab off the rank IMO is MCY.  Another non-holding for KFL.

[winner (n)]

I would call that skill rather than luck.  Next cab off the rank IMO is MCY.  Another non-holding for KFL.

Yes indeed, I'll now admit that Peeks successful stock selection is a result of his skills

Takes real skill to see through all the hype and not select OCA

[Basil]

Yes indeed, I'll now admit that Peeks successful stock selection is a result of his skills

Takes real skill to see through all the hype and not select OCA

He was very resolute in dismissing OCA as a viable prospect in my discussion with him after the Annual meeting. Far too much care in their business model and he correctly called deep skepticism about the prospects for the Helier sell-down.  I suggested he have a look at Turners.  It was $4 at the time.  Shame he didn't act on that but I have truckloads in my portfolio anyway, so it doesn't really matter.
Despite what he says in the monthly reports about RYM, he's not all that keen on them either.   Made a real hash of things in recent years.

[Waltzing]

with china on the brink of a financial crisis and trump invading ice land ... where are the funds going to hide from the effects of markets not really giving any clear indicators of where to invest .. back to basics and very very careful stock selections...staples still needed but when people realise AI is artificial intellect not the real thingee that bubble may pop a bit ...

his stock picks will be interesting ...shake shack? or back to investing in tooth paste..

with Meta about to emulate X ... anything can happen for the next 4 years... go extreme defensive? scrap metal car merchants the best pick.. maybe.. heck KMD might even make a come back...as everyone gives up and goes to the beach ... its going to be sharks everywhere..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te3_VlimRw0

[Basil]

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445656/attachment/436319/445656-436319.pdf

Well done to Matt and the team at Kingfish.  25.7% gross return vs market return of 11.4% is an outstanding result for 2024.

Barramundi did okay too but slightly lagged the market.  Their long term track record though, is very good.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445702/attachment/436320/445702-436320.pdf

[BlackPeter]

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445656/attachment/436319/445656-436319.pdf

Well done to Matt and the team at Kingfish.  25.7% gross return vs market return of 11.4% is an outstanding result for 2024.

Barramundi did okay too but slightly lagged the market.  Their long term track record though, is very good.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445702/attachment/436320/445702-436320.pdf

Always easy to celebrate the good years and keep silent about the not so good years. Kingfish 2023 SH return was negative 18.8%;

I don't follow any of these funds, but doubt, looking at some other Fisher funds that any of them does in the long term better than market average (i.e. ~8% pa for growth funds).

Looking into their share holder return (the only thing which really counts - who cares about the gross return?) look things quite different.

Their 2024 report reveals not just their negative 2023 performance (s. above), i.e, they didn't even recover in 2024 their 2023 loss. Total shareholder return over the last 5 years was 8.3 % pa, and this only thanks to an amazing 2021. The other years have been pretty poor.

For some reason don't they give numbers for longer terms - I assume there is a reason for that. Not that flash? Does anybody have 10 years annual return and / or return since inception?

So far Kingfish looks to me like a high risk, average return investment with high fees. Clearly - somebody wins.

[Basil]

At KFL's 2014 annual meeting they stated their return since inception, (over more than 20 years), was just over 10% after fees, just over 2% per annum better than the NZX50.  As such, I treat it as a "free hit" way to add diversification to my N.Z. portfolio of assets but for sake of clarity, mostly I am more than happy to stock pick N.Z. assets of my own volition and both my HLG and TRA stakes are each considerably higher than the capital invested in my KFL holding.

Barramundi has also outperformed over the long term, see the bottom of this webpage.  https://barramundi.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/

[winner (n)]

Kingfish December quarter comments

Big reduction in AIA .... probably making most of the strong recent rise in share price. Have reduced holding by about $6m and about 1.6 million shares.

MEL holding up from ~$12m to ~16m and ~660k more shares

IFT holding down from ~$$83m to ~75m with ~800k less shares

FRW holding up ~$2.5m but have reduced holding by 55k shares

Added ~30k DGL shares on price weakness

Been selling a few ATM - ~60k shares

Did these sums to assess how ACTIVE Matt is .... suppose he's kept himself occupied to some extent the last 3 months

[Basil]

Talked to Matt at the annual meeting about Turners, when they were $4. He said he was going to meet with Todd and Aaron in Sept.

He said he likes the company and management. Disappointing he didn't get some, however I actioned a significant additional acquisition program of my own so it doesn't really matter.

Credit where's its due for thrashing the NZX50 last year though.