Momentum Investing Opportunities.

[KW]

SKO bouncing off support/resistance after initial breakout move. Still a good momentum candidate after a bit of a breather.

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[KW]

CAT making a new 52 week high. Decent uptrend, bounced off the 200 day nicely in recent market correction, held prior support level, now moving higher on consistent volume (funds buying in?)


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[KW]

CKF Collins Food (operator of KFC, Taco Bell) has delivered a good trading update.  Its clearly the result of all those Kiwi's moving to Australia this year 

Group HY24 results
• Revenue from continuing operations up 14.3% to $696.5 million (HY23: $609.4 million) with strong growth across all business units.
• Underlying EBITDA from continuing operations up 16.7% to $109.9 million (HY23: $94.2 million).
• Underlying NPAT from continuing operations up 28.7% to $31.2 million (HY23: $24.2 million).
• Statutory NPAT of $50.5 million, compared with $11.0 million HY23, including gain on sale of Sizzler Asia of $20.2 million HY24.
• Net debt reduced to $173.0 million (HY23: $191.1 million) and Net Leverage Ratio of 1.12 (HY23: 1.31) as a result of strong cash generation.
• Fully franked interim dividend of 12.5 cents per ordinary share (cps) declared (HY23: 12.0 cps fully franked).

Nice technical move today to put it into a Stage 2 breakout

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[KW]

What's the difference between a Stage One and Stage Two breakout you ask?  

A Stage One breakout occurs after a period of stagnation or churn in a downtrend (Stage Four), where its trading below its 200 day MA, failing at key Resistance levels, and finally drops back to flush out the final weak hands in a capitulation event, thus setting up conditions for a breakout move (as sellers have effectively gone).  Stage One breakouts are notoriously fickle though, as the stock still has a lot of overhead to work through, so there is usually more testing of Support and Resistance levels so the price returns back to earth.  

A Stage Two breakout is when it clears all its baggage and moves into a new 52 week high free of its prior overhead.  Mark Minervini reckons only 3% of Stage One breakouts continue straight up, so he tends to wait for the Stage Two breakouts to buy.  Or he buys the Stage One as a short term trade as he expects the price to eventually pull back again.  

[KW]

The Stage Two breakouts are happening all over the place.  Long period of consolidation allowing the stock to form a base, from which a Stage One breakout on volume occurs.  This then pulls back to a level of support, creating the conditions from which a Stage Two breakout can occur. 

TPW - stonking results reported, managing to beat even their Covid sales and a lower general retail trend.
"The company said sales between July 1 and November 27 had risen 27 per cent compared to the same period last year, with revenues increasing even more strongly from October 1 – up 42 per cent" despite decreasing their prices.
"The group had a booming Black Friday to Cyber Monday sales period, with sales doubling to $17.4 million over the four days compared with a year ago."


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[KW]

It is interesting to compare the NZ50C with the XJO to see the difference in performance over the last 5 years.  The XJO is almost back to making new highs, while the NZ50 is still languishing around May 2019 levels.  Something to think about when allocating your funds, the ASX has been the better performer across the pandemic period. They don't call it The Lucky Country for nothing 
(note I've used the NZ capital index not the gross, for a fair comparison).

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[KW]

US market is on fire, the hi/lo chart has been an excellent timing mechanism

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[BlackPeter]

US market is on fire, the hi/lo chart has been an excellent timing mechanism

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So - do you recon to follow the herd and engage FOMO, or is this a case of "be fearful when others are greedy"?

Clearly - the herd is stampeding, the question is just whether there is a canyon between where they are and where they are running.

Anyway - CNN fear greed index on 67%. Not outrageous, but already pretty greedy.

[KW]

So - do you recon to follow the herd and engage FOMO, or is this a case of "be fearful when others are greedy"?

Clearly - the herd is stampeding, the question is just whether there is a canyon between where they are and where they are running.

Anyway - CNN fear greed index on 67%. Not outrageous, but already pretty greedy.

When it says go, I go.  Keep stops in place, and protect positions from large drawdowns.  The Aussie market is a bit behind, but things are moving now and it shouldnt be too long before its hitting new highs as well.  There are a lot of ASX companies that have set up beautifully from a technical perspective, actually looks textbook! 

God only knows what is going on in the NZX though.  Possibly the market knew what the Labour Govt tried to hide - that NZ had actually been in recession for 3 out of the last 4 quarters, despite the denials and fake data.  Whereas USA and Australia economies are still growing, albeit at slower levels.

This is worth a watch - commentary on current state of the market by my favourite author MM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxrJhcrzll4

MM makes the point that this rally has shut a lot of market participants out, so they will have to chase.  There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines that is available to drive this bull market.  One good indicator to watch is the FUM with retail fund managers (many are listed so reports are easy to find).  When money starts returning to funds, they also need to start buying. 

[Stoploss]

When it says go, I go.  Keep stops in place, and protect positions from large drawdowns.  The Aussie market is a bit behind, but things are moving now and it shouldnt be too long before its hitting new highs as well.  There are a lot of ASX companies that have set up beautifully from a technical perspective, actually looks textbook! 

God only knows what is going on in the NZX though.  Possibly the market knew what the Labour Govt tried to hide - that NZ had actually been in recession for 3 out of the last 4 quarters, despite the denials and fake data.  Whereas USA and Australia economies are still growing, albeit at slower levels.

This is worth a watch - commentary on current state of the market by my favourite author MM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxrJhcrzll4

MM makes the point that this rally has shut a lot of market participants out, so they will have to chase.  There is so much cash sitting on the sidelines that is available to drive this bull market.  One good indicator to watch is the FUM with retail fund managers (many are listed so reports are easy to find).  When money starts returning to funds, they also need to start buying. 

KW I am familiar with MM from market wizards I think. Have you read any or all of his books ,worth purchasing ?

[KW]

KW I am familiar with MM from market wizards I think. Have you read any or all of his books ,worth purchasing ?

Yes, I have the first 2 of his.  Highly recommended.  He goes through a lot of history and other great investors' theories like William O'Neill and Stan Weinstein (whose books are also worth buying and reading).  So its also a good summary of the history and development of momentum trading.  His last book was a psychology one, which I havent read, but probably should :-)

[KW]

PFP Propel Funeral Partners
Now that Invocare has been taken over, PFP is the only listed funeral business on the ASX.  And with the big increase in deaths in 2022 and 2023 (and probably 2024) business is booming.  I'm fully expecting an earnings upgrade. 
Their recent investor presentation is also worth a read as its has some good industry research on future death rates in Australia and NZ.

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[KW]

One of the worst investments on the ASX ever.  Boart Longyear, at the time it was the second largest IPO on the ASX after Telstra.  From a high of $134,580* down to $2.75 it has finally been put out of its misery and taken private.  Its really an excellent example of why waiting for a stock to recover could be the worst investment decision you ever make.  Buy, Hold and Pray is not a viable investment strategy - you gotta know when to "fold em, know when to walk away, and know when to run".

(*it went through a 300:1 consolidation in 2019, and a 20:1 consolidation in 2021)

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[Shareguy]

One of the worst investments on the ASX ever.  Boart Longyear, at the time it was the second largest IPO on the ASX after Telstra.  From a high of $134,580* down to $2.75 it has finally been put out of its misery and taken private.  Its really an excellent example of why waiting for a stock to recover could be the worst investment decision you ever make.  Buy, Hold and Pray is not a viable investment strategy - you gotta know when to "fold em, know when to walk away, and know when to run".

(*it went through a 300:1 consolidation in 2019, and a 20:1 consolidation in 2021)

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WOW.

[Breezy]

Well any and every stock could go to zero given a full scale nuclear war and holding and praying would be the best strategy by a country mile.