AFT Pharmaceuticals

[Hectorplains]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405053

2023 New Year letter to investors.  This is a nice initiative!  Upbeat commentary.  They feel that issues in Aust (delayed launches and supply chain pressures impacting margins) and other international markets are now behind them.  Some interesting sounding drug development in the pipeline too. Forecast dividend for 2023 is still on. 

Looks like they're working hard to improve shareholder comms, after previous criticism in this regard - like Jenny Ruth's Businessdesk article in Nov 2022. Hopefully, they'll address liquidity issues next.

[lorraina]

Liquidity does not concern me as wife and I have the holdings we want,and doubt we will have cause to sell..

[Minimoke]

Once again for the purpose of full disclosure I have entered AFT, buying at $3.72

It has taken me a week and 9 trades to do it. Interesting to watch the spread of buy/sell. Suspect there is a bit of manipulation happening here.

I like their growth story, their geographic spread, they are profitable, debt is being paid down, and covid is evidence to me we are globally increaseing population of Well Worried Wealthy people. (The 3 W's!). And with a recession that means more headaches.

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[Minimoke]

Announced today a few more markets opened up "Maxigesic (will be)sold in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia. Registrations are already held in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia and Slovenia, where launches are planned for these countries during this year"

[Hectorplains]

Announced today a few more markets opened up "Maxigesic (will be)sold in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia. Registrations are already held in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia and Slovenia, where launches are planned for these countries during this year"

Lots of headaches historically in the Slavic states, they should do well!

[Minimoke]

AFT announce today they are entering the antibiotic eyedrop market. Look like they are doing a bit of a PEB. Product under development, needs regulatory approval and will be of benefit to insurance market.

To me the important distinction is they have flagged  a 3 - 4 year time frame. So we won't get excited for some time yet.

[Left Field]

Big deal announced.......USA FDA approval confirmed... SP tops the leader board

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407693 

Good news for holders

[Minimoke]

Big deal announced.......USA FDA approval confirmed... SP tops the leader board

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407693 

Good news for holders

Now they just have to get on and sell it to doctors.

[Minimoke]

Results announcement Monday 22 May. That's another to put in the Diary

[Minimoke]

A solid enough result
"• Operating revenue up 20% on the prior year to $156.6 million, lifted by strong product sales growth in all regions and market channels.
• Operating profit of $19.7 million in line with the prior year's $20.4 million which was bolstered by significant licensing income.
• Operating profit from product sales and royalties (excluding licensing income) rose 38% to $18.8 million from $13.7 million in the prior year, despite increased investment to capitalise on growth opportunities.
• EBITDA steady at $21.4 million; Net profit after tax of $10.7 million amid higher finance costs and a return to paying tax.
• Net debt at $29.9 million in line with $29.3 million at the end of March 2022, with investments for growth funded through operating cash flows.
• Board declares maiden dividend of 1.1 cents per share.
• Near term rolling twelve-month stretch revenue target of $200 million in sight, underpinned by strong ongoing demand, product launches and the Maxigesic commercialisation programme.
• FY24 guidance for operating profit of $22 million to $24 million; this does not include $6 million of licensing income which is expected in the first half of calendar year 2024 on the launch of Maxigesic IV in the US."

Looking good for the future.

[Minimoke]

Market seems to like the result. Up 3.9% to $3.60.

I'm nearly out of the hole with this one.

Edit. And closed the day up 6.3% at $3.72. I'm evens on this now!

[Minimoke]

AFT today announce FDA has approved Maxigesic IV fro release into the USA - a Us$6.83b market.

Comes on top of approval for Maxigesic Rapid.

[BlackPeter]

AFT today announce FDA has approved Maxigesic IV fro release into the USA - a Us$6.83b market.

Comes on top of approval for Maxigesic Rapid.

On the other hand - Maxigesic was never a new idea - doctors knew for ages that the combination of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen is more effective in pain relief than using any of the components on its own, and these days basically every manufacturer of painkillers has this combination in its sortiment: e.g. Nuromol, Ibupane, Norflex, Easolief DUO,  ParfenCare, - or just the cheap generic (e.g made by Ethics or by Pharmacy Health). Ob viously - you could as well by generics of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen and get (taken together) esactly the same effect, just cheaper.

They all contain exactly the same stuff as Maxigesic (200mg Ibuprofen and 500 mg Paracetamol per tablet) - and consumers can buy whatever is cheapest and whatever brand they trust. I noticed most doctors here use now the brand Nuromol.

AFT has no moat, in new markets obviously no brand recognition, their product is just another "Me too" - the same as the others, and they have no IP at all.

So - who cares, in which other markets they might get approval? - don't expect them to be a winner ;

[Rawz]

That's interesting BP. But they say it's patented medicine?

[Hectorplains]

On the other hand - Maxigesic was never a new idea - doctors knew for ages that the combination of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen is more effective in pain relief than using any of the components on its own, and these days basically every manufacturer of painkillers has this combination in its sortiment: e.g. Nuromol, Ibupane, Norflex, Easolief DUO,  ParfenCare, - or just the cheap generic (e.g made by Ethics or by Pharmacy Health). Ob viously - you could as well by generics of Paracetamol and Ibuprofen and get (taken together) esactly the same effect, just cheaper.

They all contain exactly the same stuff as Maxigesic (200mg Ibuprofen and 500 mg Paracetamol per tablet) - and consumers can buy whatever is cheapest and whatever brand they trust. I noticed most doctors here use now the brand Nuromol.

AFT has no moat, in new markets obviously no brand recognition, their product is just another "Me too" - the same as the others, and they have no IP at all.

So - who cares, in which other markets they might get approval? - don't expect them to be a winner ;

The other side of the coin, is the growing keenness to address  the US codeine use crisis will work for AFT.  Analgesics are the prescribed alternative to opioids.  As an aside this is something NZ is finally addressing too, as our overworked MDs have routinely doll out excessive amounts of codeine as a quick...fix.