AAPL-Apple

[Shareguy]

Now my largest holding after the decline in Steel and Tube. Have owned Apple for a very long time and recently added to my position. I see it as a great company which continues to perform. Good buying under $150

[Iceman]

Agree this is a great company that holds over USD 200 BILLION in cash and continues to develop and sell consumer goods that have become consumer staples. The shares have dropped around 25% from their high (in December and March) but are still up 5% on 12 months ago.
Hold this one and am dollar cost averaging each month with small additions.

[Shareguy]

Wow. Onwards and upwards $172.00

[Basil]

You still holding Shareguy ?
TA - Seems to be forming a set of lower high's and lower low's, looks bearish to me.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/APPLE-INC-4849/consensus/
21 times FY23 earnings is still a big premium to the market and I wonder in the looming recession and cost of living crisis why people would upgrade their phones and other Apple devices to expensive new versions of the same?
Also won't Apple's earnings take a hit from the high $US?

[Hectorplains]

You still holding Shareguy ?
TA - Seems to be forming a set of lower high's and lower low's, looks bearish to me.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/APPLE-INC-4849/consensus/
21 times FY23 earnings is still a big premium to the market and I wonder in the looming recession and cost of living crisis why people would upgrade their phones and other Apple devices to expensive new versions of the same?
Also won't Apple's earnings take a hit from the high $US?

A lot riding on the VR headset and concerns about revenue

[Basil]

Thanks for the links. Gosh if earnings really disappoint then as Kelly suggested the metrics might get rerated down to a market discount in the low teens and the share price decline could get really ugly.

[Shareguy]

You still holding Shareguy ?
TA - Seems to be forming a set of lower high's and lower low's, looks bearish to me.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/APPLE-INC-4849/consensus/
21 times FY23 earnings is still a big premium to the market and I wonder in the looming recession and cost of living crisis why people would upgrade their phones and other Apple devices to expensive new versions of the same?
Also won't Apple's earnings take a hit from the high $US?

Yes. It's been a long term holding for me that I free carry. My broker has been suggesting for years that I sell some, but at the end of the day it keeps doing well.  Anything under $150 is good buying in my opinion.

No doubt there is some big headwinds at the moment, however they keep beating market expectations and I expect new products and innovation will continue to drive this company's future. Love the cash holding.

The majority of Research analysts still have as buy. My largest position that remains a bottom draw share. Because it is free carry I do worry it might cloud my judgement on this one.  May regret that, but history says I won't.

Disc, have been buying recently on weakness for a family member.

[Basil]

Yes. It's been a long term holding for me that I free carry. My broker has been suggesting for years that I sell some, but at the end of the day it keeps doing well.  Anything under $150 is good buying in my opinion.

No doubt there is some big headwinds at the moment, however they keep beating market expectations and I expect new products and innovation will continue to drive this company's future. Love the cash holding.

The majority of Research analysts still have as buy. My largest position that remains a bottom draw share. Because it is free carry I do worry it might cloud my judgement on this one.  May regret that, but history says I won't.

Disc, have been buying recently on weakness for a family member.

Fair enough mate.  You obviously have a better broker than I previously had with Forsyth Barr. Many years ago, more than a decade if my memory serves me correctly, I was really adamant that I wanted to buy Apple at $200 but he talked me out of it.  (That was before the 7:1 split quite a number of years ago so $28.57 effectively).

[Waltzing]

The big talk today on CNBC is the play by MS on open AI.

[Shareguy]

I started buying well before the split and ended up selling a good portion to get to current free carry position. I can't remember why I sold any, other than to lower risk and take a profit, but that was a mistake.  I decided years ago don't sell quality and that has worked for me.

Personally I think quality is worth the premium. Understand it could all change and agree there are a few issues to overcome.

When I go to the mall and other places I see people of all ages, rich and poor clutching their phones like they are gold bars. The new age to have this essential item by the looks of it seems to be getting younger and younger. I can't see this changing.

Apple have been change leaders and I'm betting this is going to continue.

[Basil]

Good for you Shareguy.  Tell you a good hard luck story mate.
The idea of buying Apple first occurred to me in 1994 when I watched the movie Forest Gumph, (remember how he inherited some Apple shares and then never had to worry about money again?).  I worried I had missed the boat and was a bit late so did nothing about it.
Just out of interest I just looked back on MS Money at the long term chart and on a split adjusted basis they were 30 cents in 1994...so its 433 times as valuable today, OUCH !

[Shareguy]

Wow. 30 cents in 1994. Gosh if only. As you have rightly stated in the past all we really have to go on is the past. No guarantee of the future but in my opinion very important in deciding to invest. Great movie by the way.

[Mr Cashflow]

https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-and-google-facing-real-competiive-pressure-2023-1

[Shareguy]

Failed to meet eps expectations, but forecast saves the day. Share price up.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/apple-aapl-earnings-q1-2023.html

[Shareguy]

Craig's latest today

Quarterly wrap – rare revenue miss largely due to supply challenges
AAPL delivered a rare revenue and earnings miss (3.5%) relative to analyst expectations caused by pressure from currency movements, production issues in China, and macro-economic conditions. Currency headwinds had an 800 basis point impact meaning that in constant currency terms AAPL grew earnings by about 2.5%. AAPL signalled in an update last November that Chinese COVID-19 lockdowns were impacting the supply of iPhone14 Pro and Pro Max, which have the highest selling prices and are a very profitable part of AAPL's business. These disruptions caused iPhone sales to fall by 8% to US$65.8bn (flat in constant currency terms) and miss analyst estimates by about US$2bn. The lack of supply impacted sales by about US$6bn implying that iPhone sales would have grown without the disruptions. Elsewhere, Mac sales fell 29%, in line with guidance due to a difficult comparative quarter last year which involved a new product launch while iPad sales rose 30% off a low base as sales last year were impacted by supply issues. Wearables fell 8% to US$13.5bn and appears more susceptible to demand factors than other parts of business. Services revenue growth was a bright spot, accelerating to 6% growth (from 5% last quarter), helped by ongoing expansion of paid subscriptions which rose by 35m to 935m in the quarter. The company announced the installed base of Apple devices broke through the 2bn mark, another indication of strong brand loyalty.
Management did not give any formal revenue guidance for the second quarter of 2023 due to the uncertain macro environment. It did suggest March quarter revenue growth will look like the December quarter (-5%) which implies a small acceleration given one less week in the March quarter. Currency headwinds will continue (a 500- basis point headwind in March) but the recent weakness in the US dollar could start to have a minor benefit in the June quarter. Gross margins (which can be a good indicator of pricing power) are expected to improve in the March quarter mainly due to a change in mix (more services/IPhone 14 sales). Supply constraints are expected to have a declining impact, which the company did not quantify.
Investment view
AAPL is a high-quality company with scale, brand and high switching cost moats. AAPL is the market leader in high-end smartphones and continues to gain market share. The 5G upgrade cycle is the strongest upgrade cycle since the iPhone 6 with the challenges in the quarter more about supply than demand. AAPL also generates other revenue streams within its ecosystem. Services revenue (which is growing consistently faster than the overall company growth) is recurring, higher margin and less cyclical and an important factor in the sustained higher rating of AAPL stock. The increasing importance of services revenue in its growing ecosystem will make AAPL a moderate growth stock over time, especially as the company looks to continue to expand its suite of products.
AAPL has a strong balance sheet and is a cash machine. This capital is either reinvested back into its business through research and development (US$26bn per annum) or capital expenditure or increasingly returned to shareholders via buybacks and dividends (US$26bn). This was a rare tough quarter for AAPL and the informal guidance given suggests ongoing challenges. However, the medium-term demand outlook remains healthy, and the company continues to execute strongly. AAPL is trading off its peak multiples at 24.2x its 12-month forward earnings (it peaked at 35x forward earnings). AAPL still trades at a 25% premium to pre-COVID levels, but this reflects a stronger medium term growth outlook, and we maintain our Add recommendation.
PRIVATE WEALTH R