TWR - Tower Insurance

[winner (n)]

Other channel says Bain shares being hocked off at $1.30

[Stoploss]

Other channel says Bain shares being hocked off at $1.30

Forsyth Barr handling it , expecting scaling ....

[LoungeLizard]

Other channel says Bain shares being hocked off at $1.30

Bain bought in at 80c so I guess that represents a good return. Seems low but that volume would be hard to shift without a heavy discount otherwise. A bargain for the buyer(s) in my view, but retail investors once again will suffer the most if the SP tumbles. If it does, then Towers share buy-back/cancellation leaves investors in a worse position.

[lorraina]

:
On 31 March 2025, Dent entered into a block trade agreement (the Agreement) with
Forsyth Barr Limited and Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited (the Joint Lead
Managers) (amongst others) under which Dent appointed the Joint Lead Managers to use
their best endeavours to procure purchasers for 68,306,802 ordinary shares in Tower
Limited (being its entire holding) for a fixed price of NZ$1.30 per share (or
NZ$88,798,842.60 in aggregate).

[Stoploss]

Was around double the demand for shares I got 55% of the applied amount.

[Left Field]

Encouraging day for holders after the Bain departure...... onwards and upwards.

(The new owners will be happy.)

[Poet]

Interestingly market cap down by $35 million but freefloat for purposes of NZX50 inclusion (and weighting) now up by $100 million.

I expect we will hear a preview of the half year result in the next couple of weeks - I expect $40m NPAT and a 5c per share dividend (probably unimputed)

[Shareguy]

Well mixed thoughts.

So after the strategic review no new owner was forethcoming. CEO departs and now we have Bain selling out completely on market. Bain had a good understanding of the business and more importantly are aware of recent trading and future issues not yet reported via its appointed board member Marcus Nagel.

Agree fundamentals look excellent. Bain have done well with Tower and it could be that they see better opportunities  given the large increase in Towers share price.

https://www.newprivatemarkets.com/ambienta-secures-largest-ever-exit-as-bain-capital-acquires-namiral/

Caution prevailed. Decided to not participate in sell down.

[Left Field]

Caution prevailed. Decided to not participate in sell down.

Same..... happy to hold at 10% of my portfolio with over 60% return to date.

[Basil]

I think it's fair to comment that in terms of this year's $50m extreme weather provision, we've now got to the point that the cyclone season has been pretty much de-risked this year.  That and the fact there's 10% less shares on issue means the shares certainly measure up on a value basis with the super low PE, aided and abetted by likely extra income from the extreme weather provision.  I don't think anyone would try and make the case the metrics are not attractive.  I think there's a very good case for holding some as a natural hedge such that dividends expected hedge or offset completely, insurance premiums.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/449498/attachment/440893/449498-440893.pdf

[lorraina]

Forbar.
Earnings: Underlying NPAT for FY25 lifts +33% to NZ$85.9m on reduced large events and BAU claims with minor FY26/FY27 cuts.
Spot valuation: Rises +NZ5 cps to NZ$1.95, on the one-off short-term earnings uplift from benign weather.

[BlackPeter]

Same..... happy to hold at 10% of my portfolio with over 60% return to date.

Congrats for making a decent capital gain with this cyclical. The thing is just, long term performance of Tower was dysmal (avg 2 cents per year EPS since 2016, even with the latest result). The trick with cyclicals is not to fall in love and to sell them while they are high, which might be now.

Interesting extreme weather warnings for several part of NZ:

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home

[raW tent Buffer]

The trick with cyclicals is not to fall in love and to sell them while they are high, which might be now.

Is TWR high now? I'm not so sure it is...

[Poet]

Looks as if Salt have picked up an extra 6 million shares since the share cancellation. Presumably most of these were from Bain selldown.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449513

[BlackPeter]

Is TWR high now? I'm not so sure it is...

Who knows.

If you look at the long term average of 2 cents EPS (yes, this includes a number of years with losses), than the share would be (at a PE of 8.5 - Grahams formula) worth 17 cents, obviously a bit more if you see some sustainable growth.

If you assume that the bad times are over for good (quite risky assumption, but hey ... ), and we assume the EPS hanging around the 20 cents for all times to come, then the share would be worth (based on Grahams formula) something like $1.70.

Future growwth? I don't see where it would come from given that we are currently in a goldylock situation with high rates and lower claims, but again - everybody is entitled to their own dreams.

Is the share currently on a high? You are the judge. If you see lots of growth potential and new customers queing up ... go for it.