TWR - Tower Insurance

[Arbroath]

Craigs insert latest note

While policy growth remained strong (+9% home / +3% motor), rating pressure, particularly in the home category appears to have worsened in recent months. Subsequently, the Group has reduced its GWP growth guidance range for FY26 from a range of 5% to 10%, to "low single-digit" (CIPe 5.2%).
Despite GWP growth headwinds, we see this as another steady result for TWR. The Group (i) has maintained its FY26 uNPAT guidance range of $55m to $65m (CIPe $57m), (ii) holds a strong B/S (solvency ratio of 143%), and (iii) is continuing to prove up the benefits of its risk-based pricing capabilities. That said, with a 5cps (fully imputed) interim dividend announced (below CIPe at 6cps), and the rate environment softening, we expect the stock to trade flat to down today

How do Craig's stick with GWP growth forecast of 5.2% when the company are saying low sing le digits and at the HY have delivered 1%...just doesn't seem credible. IMHO they'll be lucky to deliver flat GWp fo the FY

[Basil]

The deal to service Westpac customers kicks into gear this half. That'll be accretive to GWP this year and strongly accretive in FY27.