Investing / Holding / Selling / Rebalancing

[Waltzing]

 AI replies...

well you could CO PILOT the posts one supposes ... but if you get a silly post with you tube links to something totally daft .... you know it not AI...

at least not yet as dont think MAX head room is embedded in the models ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYdpOjletnc

 




 

[Left Field]

Carnage in Japan and USA markets according to the headlines...

And yet the NZX seems to have escaped relatively unscathed?  (so far)

With the NZX due for key company results and updates over the next two weeks it's encouraging to see no signs of panic. Seems NZX investors prefer to let the updates inform their decisions.

Interesting recent article  https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523446/are-nz-equities-a-buy.html

[Dolcile]

So the Nikkei was down 12% on Monday and up 10% on Tuesday.  seems to be way overblown

[Breezy]

So the Nikkei was down 12% on Monday and up 10% on Tuesday.  seems to be way overblown

White Noise.

[Shareguy]

Craig's saying  "investors should move to being fully invested"

Wholesale markets now expect the RBNZ will cut the OCR a further c.220bps over the next 18 months, which is notably faster than the RBNZ's own forecast. Regardless of the pace of cuts, the of travel is clear. Trading conditions will remain tough for most firms exposed to the domestic economy for some months to come, but there are already some green shoots including a recent lift in house auction clearance rates and business confidence. History suggests that rate cuts should drive an economic and - more importantly - sharemarket recovery. In comparable cycles for which we have data (2003, 2015, 2019) the NZ50G gained +13% six months following the first rate cut and +27% within one year. Similar returns were delivered by the S&P500 over cycles going back to 1989. While higher starting valuations suggest returns over the next year will be more modest this time, with the rate cut cycle now underway, investors should move to being fully invested.....

[Left Field]

Interesting to see what stocks have received the most and least attention/posts/noise - compared to their performance over 2024

The Noisiest

1. HGH - over 1840 posts -  29% loss
2. OCA - over 1600 posts  - 1% loss
3. HLG - over 1320 posts - 57% gain
4. TRA - over 1170 posts - 25% gain

The Quiet Achievers

1. BPG - 14 posts - 169% gain
2. TWR - 234 posts- 122% gain
3. GTK - 37 posts - 102% gain
4. FPH - 240 posts - 57% gain
5. IFT - 230 posts - 37% gain

The most prolific posters

Basil 3900 posts overall
Waltzing 3000 posts overall
Winner 2800 posts overall
Black Peter 1500 posts overall
Shareguy 1300 posts overall



All figures approx. E&OE. DYOR.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting to see what stocks have received the most and least attention/posts/noise - compared to their performance over 2024

The Noisiest

1. HGH - over 1840 posts -  29% loss
2. OCA - over 1600 posts  - 1% loss
3. HLG - over 1320 posts - 57% gain
4. TRA - over 1170 posts - 25% gain

The Quiet Achievers

1. BPG - 14 posts - 169% gain
2. TWR - 234 posts- 122% gain
3. GTK - 37 posts - 102% gain
4. FPH - 240 posts - 57% gain
5. IFT - 230 posts - 37% gain

The most prolific posters

Basil 3900 posts overall
Waltzing 3000 posts overall
Winner 2800 posts overall
Black Peter 1500 posts overall
Shareguy 1300 posts overall



All figures approx. E&OE. DYOR.

OK - interesting raw data. Just wondering, what conclusions we can draw from them?

Based on your data it looks like the number of posts on a thread could be negatively correlated with stock performance, but I am wondering, whether this might be a lagging indicator? Maybe many posts just follow the negative performance and/or indicate disagreeing views about the analysis of the downtrend?

As well, don't we need to look as well at the quiet losers to get a balanced analysis? If we don't add them to the stats, the whole analysis might be biased.

Anyway - Merry Christmas to all from the according to your stats 4th most prolific poster ...

clearly - this must mean something.

[Scooter]

Interesting to see what stocks have received the most and least attention/posts/noise - compared to their performance over 2024

The Noisiest

1. HGH - over 1840 posts -  29% loss
2. OCA - over 1600 posts  - 1% loss
3. HLG - over 1320 posts - 57% gain
4. TRA - over 1170 posts - 25% gain

The Quiet Achievers

1. BPG - 14 posts - 169% gain
2. TWR - 234 posts- 122% gain
3. GTK - 37 posts - 102% gain
4. FPH - 240 posts - 57% gain
5. IFT - 230 posts - 37% gain

The most prolific posters

Basil 3900 posts overall
Waltzing 3000 posts overall
Winner 2800 posts overall
Black Peter 1500 posts overall
Shareguy 1300 posts overall



All figures approx. E&OE. DYOR.

What about Vista

[Left Field]

OK - interesting raw data. Just wondering, what conclusions we can draw from them?

I'm sure we can draw our own conclusions BP..... otherwise choose any or all of the following;

1.) He who shouts loudest and longest is not always right
2.) To avoid posting in an echo chamber.... have your say.... this site needs more diverse opinions
3.) Beware of rampers
4.) People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones (or parties)

......take your choice.

[Left Field]

What about Vista

Good point Scooter..... here you are

VGL - 28 posts (10 of them mine) - 87% gain.

That's enough of me..... have a happy Christmas all..

[Scooter]

Good point Scooter..... here you are

VGL - 28 posts (10 of them mine) - 87% gain.

That's enough of me..... have a happy Christmas all..

Yes great gain and not many followers.  Still got room to keep going too.

[Shareguy]

Interesting to see what stocks have received the most and least attention/posts/noise - compared to their performance over 2024

The Noisiest

1. HGH - over 1840 posts -  29% loss
2. OCA - over 1600 posts  - 1% loss
3. HLG - over 1320 posts - 57% gain
4. TRA - over 1170 posts - 25% gain

The Quiet Achievers

1. BPG - 14 posts - 169% gain
2. TWR - 234 posts- 122% gain
3. GTK - 37 posts - 102% gain
4. FPH - 240 posts - 57% gain
5. IFT - 230 posts - 37% gain

The most prolific posters

Basil 3900 posts overall
Waltzing 3000 posts overall
Winner 2800 posts overall
Black Peter 1500 posts overall
Shareguy 1300 posts overall



All figures approx. E&OE. DYOR.

Interesting, Thanks for working that out.  Some would say that this years poor performers might be next years winners. Also a lot of us probably have stocks that we own that we have never posted on for what ever reason.

[Shareguy]

Well what a year its been, hopefully everyone has done ok.  Summers here with Interest rates in NZ on the decline however generally the economy here is not great. Australia and the USA have been fantastic but will it continue is the question.

In NZ sold out of Oceania after being in since it listed.  Should of sold out a long time ago but I'm learning to accept losses and move on.  I'm sure it will come right but decided in the end that I had waited long enough and hopefully the re invested funds will do better.

Early on this year added Tower and Ryman (large position) and recently added My Food Bag and Mercury on MSCI rebalance weakness.  Took a "punt" on KMD Brands. Sold down some of my Heartland shares based on risk but still have a good sized holding and still in the green.

In Australia my two largest positions Aroa and DGL (large position) seemed to have turned a corner and are doing well. 

The US has been incredible with largest positions Apple, Alphabet and Amazon showing large unrealized gains as well as favorable exchange.  Will probably never sell these stocks.  With the current prices and exchange rate cant see myself investing anything new in this market.

My decision to invest off shore directly and also in Discovery funds has been a good one but any spare money lately has and will be going into the NZ market as I reckon 2025 is going to be our year.

Have a great Xmas everyone and I hope 2025 is going to be kind to you all.

[Basil]

Sobering stuff from Treasury.  Gosh even changing the long used OBeagle to OBeagleX to try and fudge when the economy comes back into surplus.   
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/barely-alive-in-2025-treasurys-grim-diagnosis/4TGJERW36BB2HKDIGBZUECTHZM/
Careful stock selection on the NZX will be crucial in 2025 in my opinion.  That said the OCR could be 2.0 - 2.5% by this time next year so that will really help.
Housing which is still extremely expensive relative to incomes to stay flat or increase at very low single digits in line with inflation is how I see that asset class going in 2025 will roll on effects for the languishing RV sector, (SUM the exception), and I am happy to hold a dissenting view to most economists who seem to be expecting mid to high single digit percentage increases.

[Turkey]

Thanks for sharing. Always interesting reading other people's ideas and strategies in the investment game
Best of luck...sounds like a good plan to me