Investing / Holding / Selling / Rebalancing

[Onemootpoint]

Sharesies members looking bullish again

"Online trading platform Sharesies, which now has $2.5b in funds under management, has dug into the behaviour and sentiment of its 500,000 members to release its first investor index report."

Signs of optimism.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522005/sharesies-members-looking-bullish-again.html

I wonder whether other brokers will have similar results/ outcomes should their target investor have different investment goals/ ideas/ targets/ methodology/ etc.

[Shareguy]

Well it's been a interesting few months. Have been buying Mainfreight, Ebos on weakness.  Sold down a good portion of GNE and is no longer a big holding. Reduced my holdings in the retirement sector.  In Australia have doubled my holding in DGL. Have also added to my Discovery funds which to date have done very well.

With the good comes the bad.  Continuing to hold Rakon which is a free carry position clouded my judgement, and I should have sold the lot when it was over $2. Stu has gone no where but still confident that the worst is over and is paying a good divi with the future bright I think. My worst decision was getting back into FBU. In my opinion the largest nest of cockroaches are resident and I won't be back.

All up it's been a ok year with capital intact.  I was lucky to switch into some good US stocks at the right time. Adding to my Apple position and taking some new positions. Have also been lucky with a good currency gain. The NZX has been a disappointment for me.

As I said before I'm thinking we are over the worst. A change of government and I'm seeing confidence building, house prices on the turn. It's early days but I'm positive going forward.

And summer starts tomorrow.

[Ricky Bobby]

Thanks shareguy! Always interested to hear what everyone is up to! Iv topped up on Skl and brm. Only small amounts tho... still got some cash on hand...

[Hectorplains]

Well it's been a interesting few months. Have been buying Mainfreight, Ebos on weakness.  Sold down a good portion of GNE and is no longer a big holding. Reduced my holdings in the retirement sector.  In Australia have doubled my holding in DGL. Have also added to my Discovery funds which to date have done very well.

With the good comes the bad.  Continuing to hold Rakon which is a free carry position clouded my judgement, and I should have sold the lot when it was over $2. Stu has gone no where but still confident that the worst is over and is paying a good divi with the future bright I think. My worst decision was getting back into FBU. In my opinion the largest nest of cockroaches are resident and I won't be back.

All up it's been a ok year with capital intact.  I was lucky to switch into some good US stocks at the right time. Adding to my Apple position and taking some new positions. Have also been lucky with a good currency gain. The NZX has been a disappointment for me.

As I said before I'm thinking we are over the worst. A change of government and I'm seeing confidence building, house prices on the turn. It's early days but I'm positive going forward.

And summer starts tomorrow.

Similar-ish story for me.  NZ has been mostly hard work, for every HLG or TRA there's been an IKE (or 3.)  For now I'm exclusively holding SEK here - and hoping for a good harvest season. I've nearly pushed the "play and record" buttons on a few others but nothing else has been hollering "BUY" at me yet (and age has wearied my fingers...)

Over the way I've been buying small cap mining and energy stocks, the prices of which have been smashed (many are down 70-80% from their highs) but with fundamentally no change to their story. 

Stateside has been my big win.  My three there are Arlo, Tiger Brokers and Rocketlab.  The first two have made my year.  Luckily Rocketlab is by far the smallest holding... and I will likely flick most of that on the next spike. 

[Shareguy]

Similar-ish story for me.  NZ has been mostly hard work, for every HLG or TRA there's been an IKE (or 3.)  For now I'm exclusively holding SEK here - and hoping for a good harvest season. I've nearly pushed the "play and record" buttons on a few others but nothing else has been hollering "BUY" at me yet (and age has wearied my fingers...)

Over the way I've been buying small cap mining and energy stocks, the prices of which have been smashed (many are down 70-80% from their highs) but with fundamentally no change to their story. 

Stateside has been my big win.  My three there are Arlo, Tiger Brokers and Rocketlab.  The first two have made my year.  Luckily Rocketlab is by far the smallest holding... and I will likely flick most of that on the next spike. 

Yes the NZX currently does not have much that interests me either from a value point of view. Interesting to note that the NZX50 returned 5 percent for November bringing the 12 month return to -1.9 percent. December is normally a good month for stocks.

I agree the Australian small caps offer a lot of opportunities and one broker said they are on sale at the moment. Discovery funds who invest in the small caps seem to be doing a great job (up over 40 percent) at picking so am happy at this stage to leave most of that market to them.

Like you have been cautious with buying. For me my portfolio is becoming more higher quality each year. Who wants worry and a good sleep is important. On saying that still love a good punt, however capital preservation is number one.

[Basil]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/stock-market-today-live-update.html

"Goldilocks" conditions supportive of the seasonal rally continuing?

[Shareguy]

Latest views from Craigs and my own portfolio review.

March quarter recap and what to watch in Q2
This year has started very strongly for share investors, with returns in the March quarter much better than many would've expected.
World shares rose 7.8 per cent and as was the case in 2023, the US and Japan led the charge.
The S&P 500 in the US gained 10.2 per cent for the quarter, surpassing its 2022 high and finishing March almost 30 per cent above its October lows.
It was a remarkable run, with the S&P 500 rising for 16 out of 18 weeks for the first time since 1971.
Optimism over developments in AI was again a major driver of the gains, with star performer NVIDIA surging another 82.5 per cent over the quarter.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rallied a staggering 20.6 per cent, it's strongest quarter since 2009.
Other international sharemarkets were up more modestly, while a weaker NZ dollar boosted returns even further.
The currency fell below US$0.60 for the first time since November, and it also declined against the British pound, euro and Australian dollar.
New Zealand assets lagged, with the NZX 50 sharemarket index rising 2.8 per cent and corporate bonds posting a marginal gain.

With interest rates The European Central Bank could be next, with June shaping up as an opportune time.
The US Federal Reserve shouldn't be far behind, but that could be a story for the third quarter rather than the second.
Here in New Zealand, the economy is likely to keep struggling over the next quarter or two.
The Reserve Bank hasn't hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) since May last year, but for many households the headwinds will grow, not subside.
More than half of our collective mortgages are due to reprice within the next year, and the average rate people are paying is still about one per cent below current rates.
Our sharemarket doesn't mirror the economy particularly well, so a tough backdrop doesn't necessary mean bad news for our listed companies.
The NZX is dominated by stable, mature businesses in sectors like electricity, infrastructure, healthcare and real estate.
Weaker activity increases the chance of OCR cuts (and markets see the first of those coming in August), which should benefit companies in those industries.
While world shares are at a record high, New Zealand share prices ended March 19.1 per cent below their early 2021 peak.
Rising interest rates haven't been kind to our market in recent times, but we'll have our time in the sun again.
Don't forget that in the decade leading up to 2020 New Zealand shares outpaced their international counterparts on seven out of ten occasions.
The next important test for financial markets could be the US corporate reporting season, which starts next week.
For the 2024 calendar year, the S&P 500 index is expected to deliver revenue growth of five per cent and earnings growth of 11 per cent.
The bar for avoiding disappointment moves higher as share prices rise, so if we're going to see a sell-off in the months ahead there's every chance it comes on the back of weaker earnings or softer guidance.
Looking beyond the next three months and into 2025, inflation is expected to keep trending down and interest rates will almost certainly be lower than they are today.
If economic activity remains resilient, that's not a bad environment for growth assets, not to mention fixed income.
A bit of weakness wouldn't be a bad thing, as it might offer an attractive entry point for investors and another opportunity to put some fresh capital to work.

For my own quarterly review I have sold down more of my NZX portfolio across the board to pay tax. My thoughts are that my NZX portfolio performance has been subdued. Overall only holding its own....just. Disapointing when I look at the returns of my offshore investments. The NZX must be due for some growth but think not a lots going to happen until interest rates start dropping,which is why I took money from the NZX and not elsewhere.

It would be easy to sell out of the NZ market completly. However diversification, and as stated above I can't forget that in the decade leading up to 2020 New Zealand shares outpaced their international counterparts on seven out of ten occasions. Like the warriors it's got to be our year soon. The only share on the NZX that I'm looking at buying currently is Heartland Bank. Have applied for full entitlement plus all additional shares that I could. Sure it might go under $1.00 but think it's safe buying at these levels.

As far as international shares have gone. The performance has been exceptional however this month even Discovery funds are having a bad month down over 7 percent month to date (up 16 percent for quarter). Very tempting to take some profits out of Amazon and Alphabet but think there is more growth to come.

With what's happening in the world very easy and understandable to have a larger cash waiting. Bank deposit rates are still attractive and you can still beat inflation, just. Will certainly be some opportunities coming up but safe havens like term deposits should not be over looked in my opinion while a clearer picture of growth shows and the clouds clear.

Well that's my thoughts anyway.

[Waltzing]

The NZX as poor as it sometimes seems is no where near a " Like the warriors it's got to be our year soon"  is it?

please there are some outstanding performances by NZ Teams which often have an international team make up....

Lots of people from all over the world are working every day in NZ and for NZ companies...

Some companies have even gone off shore and survived and may Thrive in the future even if they sometimes hit by cyclical head winds such as high interest rates.

Go Team NZ...

[Hectorplains]

Latest views from Craigs and my own portfolio review.

March quarter recap and what to watch in Q2
This year has started very strongly for share investors, with returns in the March quarter much better than many would've expected.
World shares rose 7.8 per cent and as was the case in 2023, the US and Japan led the charge.
The S&P 500 in the US gained 10.2 per cent for the quarter, surpassing its 2022 high and finishing March almost 30 per cent above its October lows.
It was a remarkable run, with the S&P 500 rising for 16 out of 18 weeks for the first time since 1971.
Optimism over developments in AI was again a major driver of the gains, with star performer NVIDIA surging another 82.5 per cent over the quarter.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rallied a staggering 20.6 per cent, it's strongest quarter since 2009.
Other international sharemarkets were up more modestly, while a weaker NZ dollar boosted returns even further.
The currency fell below US$0.60 for the first time since November, and it also declined against the British pound, euro and Australian dollar.
New Zealand assets lagged, with the NZX 50 sharemarket index rising 2.8 per cent and corporate bonds posting a marginal gain.

With interest rates The European Central Bank could be next, with June shaping up as an opportune time.
The US Federal Reserve shouldn't be far behind, but that could be a story for the third quarter rather than the second.
Here in New Zealand, the economy is likely to keep struggling over the next quarter or two.
The Reserve Bank hasn't hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) since May last year, but for many households the headwinds will grow, not subside.
More than half of our collective mortgages are due to reprice within the next year, and the average rate people are paying is still about one per cent below current rates.
Our sharemarket doesn't mirror the economy particularly well, so a tough backdrop doesn't necessary mean bad news for our listed companies.
The NZX is dominated by stable, mature businesses in sectors like electricity, infrastructure, healthcare and real estate.
Weaker activity increases the chance of OCR cuts (and markets see the first of those coming in August), which should benefit companies in those industries.
While world shares are at a record high, New Zealand share prices ended March 19.1 per cent below their early 2021 peak.
Rising interest rates haven't been kind to our market in recent times, but we'll have our time in the sun again.
Don't forget that in the decade leading up to 2020 New Zealand shares outpaced their international counterparts on seven out of ten occasions.
The next important test for financial markets could be the US corporate reporting season, which starts next week.
For the 2024 calendar year, the S&P 500 index is expected to deliver revenue growth of five per cent and earnings growth of 11 per cent.
The bar for avoiding disappointment moves higher as share prices rise, so if we're going to see a sell-off in the months ahead there's every chance it comes on the back of weaker earnings or softer guidance.
Looking beyond the next three months and into 2025, inflation is expected to keep trending down and interest rates will almost certainly be lower than they are today.
If economic activity remains resilient, that's not a bad environment for growth assets, not to mention fixed income.
A bit of weakness wouldn't be a bad thing, as it might offer an attractive entry point for investors and another opportunity to put some fresh capital to work.

For my own quarterly review I have sold down more of my NZX portfolio across the board to pay tax. My thoughts are that my NZX portfolio performance has been subdued. Overall only holding its own....just. Disapointing when I look at the returns of my offshore investments. The NZX must be due for some growth but think not a lots going to happen until interest rates start dropping,which is why I took money from the NZX and not elsewhere.

It would be easy to sell out of the NZ market completly. However diversification, and as stated above I can't forget that in the decade leading up to 2020 New Zealand shares outpaced their international counterparts on seven out of ten occasions. Like the warriors it's got to be our year soon. The only share on the NZX that I'm looking at buying currently is Heartland Bank. Have applied for full entitlement plus all additional shares that I could. Sure it might go under $1.00 but think it's safe buying at these levels.

As far as international shares have gone. The performance has been exceptional however this month even Discovery funds are having a bad month down over 7 percent month to date (up 16 percent for quarter). Very tempting to take some profits out of Amazon and Alphabet but think there is more growth to come.

With what's happening in the world very easy and understandable to have a larger cash waiting. Bank deposit rates are still attractive and you can still beat inflation, just. Will certainly be some opportunities coming up but safe havens like term deposits should not be over looked in my opinion while a clearer picture of growth shows and the clouds clear.

Well that's my thoughts anyway.

That mirrors much of my thinking.  I'm out of the NZX completely - recently sold out of my last holding SEK.  I hold some US stock and I'm heavy in ASX minerals and metals.  Overall, I have considerably less in stocks than I usually hold.

[Basil]

With what's happening in the world very easy and understandable to have a larger cash waiting. Bank deposit rates are still attractive and you can still beat inflation, just. Will certainly be some opportunities coming up but safe havens like term deposits should not be over looked in my opinion while a clearer picture of growth shows and the clouds clear.

Great post.  Amazing run in overseas markets from 1 November to 31 March...almost straight up so a decent correction seems almost a certainty and in my opinion is only part way through playing itself out.  Yes absolutely, this is a great time to take some chips off the table.  Q1 inflation in N.Z. was only 0.6% and annualizing that, that's only 2.4% so term deposits are well and truly outperforming inflation at this point in time.    I am currently running a very high cash weighting in my portfolio.  I'm playing defense here in my portfolio and looking to protect the gains I enjoyed for the financial year just ended.

I also see the N.Z. economy performing in quite an anemic way for at least the current and next quarter.  With the honeymoon period over for the National party, it feels like it's going to be a real grind to get out of this recession.  We've had negative GDP growth in 4 of the last 5 quarters and with record immigration level's the real rate of per capita GDP contraction is quite concerning.  I think the RBNZ needs to cut sooner than later.

Sometimes it's not about how much you make in the short run, it's about risk mitigation.

[Mr Cashflow]

What work for me won't fit for others. My mid- and long-term approach is creating long term wealth for me.  Basically, I am a cash flow man having contrarian approach. I didn't have any interest on dividend-based stocks. Lately I found advantage of having dividend champions. My returns were above average over the last two financial years. I make use of my emergency cash whenever I find quality investment trading at a big discount. I was trimming, buying,adding and selling stocks over the last 12 months. They have worked well for me. Cash cows and strong balance sheets are my favourites. That doesn't me I am going to overpay for them. I am a value hunter.  Good luck!

[Waltzing]

well no NZ holdings that mean no F&P health care?

no freight?
no ports?
no agri culture?
no commercial property?

the golden tri angle is slated to grow in population and production over the next 5 years...

NZ may not out perform but it can still produce and not all companies are FBU or some even worse ones...
Its true the companies are flat but after reading the sentiment here the NZX might as well close and anything remaining list on the ASX...

that means dumping the KIWI and joining the KANGA...?

[Mr Cashflow]

well no NZ holdings that mean no F&P health care?

no freight?
no ports?
no agri culture?
no commercial property?

the golden tri angle is slated to grow in population and production over the next 5 years...

NZ may not out perform but it can still produce and not all companies are FBU or some even worse ones...
Its true the companies are flat but after reading the sentiment here the NZX might as well close and anything remaining list on the ASX...

that means dumping the KIWI and joining the KANGA...?

There are few quality NZ stocks. High valuation is a concern.

[ValueNZ]

What work for me won't fit for others. My mid- and long-term approach is creating long term wealth for me.  Basically, I am a cash flow man having contrarian approach. I didn't have any interest on dividend-based stocks. Lately I found advantage of having dividend champions. My returns were above average over the last two financial years. I make use of my emergency cash whenever I find quality investment trading at a big discount. I was trimming, buying,adding and selling stocks over the last 12 months. They have worked well for me. Cash cows and strong balance sheets are my favourites. That doesn't me I am going to overpay for them. I am a value hunter.  Good luck!

This text seems very AI-like. Valuegrowth?

[Bob50]

I am currently running a very high cash weighting in my portfolio.  I'm playing defense here in my portfolio and looking to protect the gains I enjoyed for the financial year just ended.

Those term deposits with their 5-6+% rates have been attractive. However interest rates are headed lower at some point so should we be preparing for it. It seems to me now is the opportunity to lock into dividend stocks before they become popular again.