RYM-Ryman

[Shareguy]

That $3 seems to be getting further and further away..... $2.48 as I post

Yes agree, the investor day disappointed and signs the housing market were turning positive especially in Auckland where Ryman have a lot of unsold stock have stalled. It's not just Ryman, it's a sector wide issue, which is reflected in the other listed operators share prices as well.

Even though Rymans  FY26 year guidance is for 1300 to 1400 total sales Ryman reported 2% quarter on quarter growth in third quarter but when you back out the two villages that were closed in Christchurch new sales were down.

Ryman have a lot of unsold stock especially serviced apartments. No divi till 2028 has not helped either.

On the positive they are sorting their stuff out and are still a quality offering with a much lower debt profile. I see it as a longer term safe play waiting for attention.

[Basil]

I see it as a longer term safe play waiting for attention.

I don't foresee anything that's going to break the Auckland real estate market out of the multi year malaise its been in.  Prices have continued dropping despite substantial reductions in mortgage rates and the immigration level's simply aren't there. What happens to prices when interest rates start going up again ? Investors dumping rental properties because of grossly inadequate net yield after all compliance and repair costs, rents falling, baby boomers leaving the big smoke to retire somewhere more peaceful and free up some capital, honestly I could write an entire page on the reasons why I believe the Auckland market in particular could stay stuck in the doldrums for many years to come which is in my opinion going to seriously impact all companies in this sector, especially RYM with its substantial number of unsold Auckland units.  RYM's business model simply doesn't work when real estate prices are in a sustained downturn.  We're four and a half years into this real estate downturn.  What if it lasts a whole decade or even longer ?

Thought to ponder. What's makes this a safe investment ?  People thought the value made it safe at the $5 mark a few years ago with the first capital raise, then surely it was safe at the $4 mark a while later, then $3 at the following capital raise, surely that was the bottom and then after the underwriters cleared the overhang, surely that was the bottom but no, the downtrend is back and its well and truly broken below the 200 day MA and back stuck in a downtrend.  The 6 month chart looks truly awful.  Is $2 the bottom ?  Maybe $1.50 ?    Slower sales could easily see them kick the can down the road with the extremely modest dividend they seem to have penciled in for FY28.    This could stay stuck in the doldrums for many years and all that while you get no dividends or dividends so incredibly low they might just as well be nothing but the real loss is the returns you could have got elsewhere investing in a quality company that really is growing earnings.   This is not a "safe" investment in my opinion. 

If you're earning 5% in a term deposit and Ryman takes 3 years to re-rate to $4.50, your annualised return is roughly 16% — excellent. But if it takes 5 years, it's roughly 9% — still decent but you've carried meaningful single-stock risk and illiquidity for that

What's the yield if the price 5 years from now is $2 ? 

[HAWKDOG]

just posting this for those who haven't seen it.
https://www.sharesies.nz/learn/shared-lunch-cash-never-lies-ryman-healthcare
these stocks seem get a good bump when featured.

[entrep]

just posting this for those who haven't seen it.
https://www.sharesies.nz/learn/shared-lunch-cash-never-lies-ryman-healthcare
these stocks seem get a good bump when featured.

Posted two weeks ago, though?

[entrep]

What's the yield if the price 5 years from now is $2 ? 

$2.90 to $2.00 over 5 years, no dividends for the first two, modest dividends from FY28:

Without dividends: (2.00 / 2.90)^(1/5) − 1 = roughly −7.1% per annum

If you assume ~30 cents total in dividends across years 3–5 (which is roughly the midpoint of the 20–50% CFEO payout range): (2.30 / 2.90)^(1/5) − 1 = roughly −4.5% per annum

Meanwhile your term deposit returned 5% risk-free. So the real opportunity cost in that scenario is −9.5% to −12% per annum relative to the alternative — compounded over five years, that's a devastating gap of roughly 40–50 cents of cumulative wealth per dollar deployed.

[Basil]

Good work Entrep.  Under that scenario for RYM investors what's the wealth destruction per dollar relative to Turners if we assume the share price of TRA grows for the next 5 years at their previous 5 year EPS CAGR of 12% + dividend yield of 6% also growing at a 12% CAGR ?

This may look like an outrageous question but it's not. Its asked to illustrate the real opportunity cost relative to a high performing growth stock.

[HAWKDOG]

Posted two weeks ago, though?

Yup

Had a positive bump after it

[Left Field]

RYM in scathing alleged abuse of an elderly alzheimers patient in their care.

Details in RNZ interview today @ 9:05 am with Kathryn Ryan.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon

Daughter speaks out about her mother's horror treatment at care home

"The daughter of a woman injured in a Ryman retirement village is speaking out after her mother's arm was broken and shoulder dislocated after being pulled over by a care worker. Janice Foreman's injuries were captured on internal camera footage, released to her daughter Nicky, and seen by Nine to Noon.

The carer seen in the footage yanking on Janice's arm moments before the footage shows her lying on the floor, has since left Ryman. Janice remained on the floor for some time, with no one coming to comfort her, and other stepping over her as she cried in pain. It was six hours before she was finally taken to Auckland City Hospital,"

[BlackPeter]

RYM in scathing alleged abuse of an elderly alzheimers patient in their care.

Details in RNZ interview today @ 9:05 am with Kathryn Ryan.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon

Daughter speaks out about her mother's horror treatment at care home

"The daughter of a woman injured in a Ryman retirement village is speaking out after her mother's arm was broken and shoulder dislocated after being pulled over by a care worker. Janice Foreman's injuries were captured on internal camera footage, released to her daughter Nicky, and seen by Nine to Noon.

The carer seen in the footage yanking on Janice's arm moments before the footage shows her lying on the floor, has since left Ryman. Janice remained on the floor for some time, with no one coming to comfort her, and other stepping over her as she cried in pain. It was six hours before she was finally taken to Auckland City Hospital,"

No information available which shows whether this was an accident and maybe lack of staff training to look after accidents - or whether this was open abuse.

I had in the family two people with alzheimers - and both fall, injured themselves and died afterwards ... without any staff causing the injuries.

What I am saying is - clearly - it doesn't sounds good. But using this based on the available information to run down Ryman is just nonsense.

Maybe a good time to investigate this for the authorities and for us to wait for the report?

[Left Field]

No information available which shows whether this was an accident and maybe lack of staff training to look after accidents - or whether this was open abuse.

I had in the family two people with alzheimers - and both fall, injured themselves and died afterwards ... without any staff causing the injuries.

What I am saying is - clearly - it doesn't sounds good. But using this based on the available information to run down Ryman is just nonsense.

Maybe a good time to investigate this for the authorities and for us to wait for the report?

Listen to the interview then judge for yourself. It is far from "just nonsense"

Video evidence tampered with... but remaining footage shows extreme lack of care.

Ryman staff member involved was sacked....

The mother's jewellery 'disappeared"

The govt agency tasked with reviewing this only has 2 staff tasked to this complaint and was unable to investigate until over 12 months after the event.

Go figure.

[BlackPeter]

Listen to the interview then judge for yourself. It is far from "just nonsense"

Video evidence tampered with... but remaining footage shows extreme lack of care.

Ryman staff member involved was sacked....

The mother's jewellery 'disappeared"

The govt agency tasked with reviewing this only has 2 staff tasked to this complaint and was unable to investigate until after 12 months after the event.

Go figure.

You picked the words "just nonsense". Interesting way to argue with yourself.

As well - if the things you state in your post are true, then they don't need a 2 person government department, but NZ police (who clearly has more staff) to investigate. Just approach them, that's what they are for.

[KW]

I'm sure this goes on in every aged care home.  Hiring a lot of untrained and unskilled workers who have recently immigrated here and don't speak English well - is always going to end up with people working in jobs for which they are unsuitable.  You cant vet foreign workers, cant do police checks, cant do vocational checks.  All these workers need is a piece of paper saying they did some course at some organisation, and thats enough to get them a visa and a job.  There are no quality checks these days.

And despite that, elderly people are still safer in an aged care institution than in their own homes.  Since 88% of elder abuse is committed by family members.
"Elder abuse is a hidden crisis affecting an estimated 1 in 10 older New Zealanders. The most recent national figures from the Age Concern New Zealand network recorded 2,817 alleged abuse cases in a single 12-month period. Of these, 88% of the alleged abusers were family members."