RYM-Ryman

[Mos]

Basil "SUM are not saddled with legions of residents stuck on ultra low fixed fees for life that's literally draining the lifeblood out of business operations at a village level. i.e. people still paying for example $99 per week fixed fees for life at RYM's villages are literally laughing all the way to the bank as its probably costing RYM near twice that now to service their needs.  This will cause a huge drain on cash flow that will only gradually abate over the next decade or so. "

Great post above Basil. The piece quoted above is exactly what I was referring to many posts ago. Ryman's fixed fees for life is very uneconomic after years of high inflation. The upcoming auckland average rates increase of 7.9% to pay for city rail link operating costs won't help. My Mum is 8 years in to her tenure at a Ryman village hopefully with many years to come and is on a very low weekly fee that that can never be increased and only 20% DMF. I think capital gain for Ryman over the period would be pretty much zero with weak outlook ahead.

[BlackPeter]

I think that's been one of the key aspects of SUM success over the years.

RYM had a license to print money in their first 12 years with first mover advantage and they printed money so fast they almost ran out of paper lol but its really interesting to have a look at their performance since SUM listed in Nov 2011.

Over the last 14 years SUM has gone from $1.35 to $12.50, 9.25 times your money and paid a consistent modest dividend.
Over the same timeframe RYM has gone from $2.43 to $2.89, (should have gone to at least $3.39 just to match inflation with no return over those 14 years, source RBNZ inflation calculator), engaged in two value destructive capital raises especially the first billion dollar one in 2023 at $5 and failed to pay a dividend in recent years.   They have also disestablished their entire internal development model, radically dialed back their build rate and are now lead by an inexperienced board and new fairly inexperienced management team.

SUM have basically eaten RYM's breakfast, lunch and dinner ever since they listed.

Actually - Ryman was around (or even over) $15 once. Was this Couta's 1 RYM equals 2 SUM? SUM wasn't always that positiv - I think we prepared even at some stage a letter to their board for Norahs funny share dealings?

So - RYM still holds the higher top. Will they come back? Who knows, but we know how difficult it is to accurately predict the future ...

... and yes, personally I would as well prefer a nice and secluded villa rather than sitting in a box in a huge multi-storey retirement cage. Having said that - our kids live in Singapore in a nice appartment somewhere above the 20th floor level - and I can't remember any issues with neighbours or similar. You just don't hear them. It is possible to create nice and friendly appartments in large house blocks. Haven't tried though the RYM houses so far.

[Shareguy]

Good to see that the ceo has topped up.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/464222

[winner (n)]

Good to see that the ceo has topped up.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/464222

Average now $2.83 for her $750k worth of shares

In the money now

And next target will be $3.05 where she nobly participated in cap raise

Shareguy - that 3 bucks net week?

[Shareguy]

Average now $2.83 for her $750k worth of shares

In the money now

And next target will be $3.05 where she nobly participated in cap raise

Shareguy - that 3 bucks net week?

Hopefully. But it will happen............

[Basil]

Hopefully. But it will happen............

WOW ~ 5 million went through just after the close.  You doing a small top up mate ?

[Shareguy]

WOW ~ 5 million went through just after the close.  You doing a small top up mate ?

Ha, No not me. I have more than enough as it is.

[lorraina]

https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-gthidtk-yupddjlly-j/

[Shareguy]

https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-gthidtk-yupddjlly-j/

Thanks for posting. Very positive

As the over 80s cohort triples to 3.5 million people over the next four decades, Ryman and Regis as rare ASX entrees to a sector with dead-certain growth prospects.

[winner (n)]

Doesn't look like we are going to see $3 by years end

Wonder how long in to 2026 it'll take to get there .... and continue rising from there

[BlackPeter]

Doesn't look like we are going to see $3 by years end

Wonder how long in to 2026 it'll take to get there .... and continue rising from there

Hmm - analyst consenus is $3.22. Even if we assume they are right (they rarely are), you still might wait some time.

Just looking at the analyst consensus of my watchlists - over the last 12 months they got it right in 41% of their predictions (i.e. SP went to the predicted price or higher), and the reminder was wrong or pointless (i.e. consensus lower than original price).

But I guess predictions are better during boom years - so, if we just moved through the low point, things might be better next year.

In a longer timeframe I think all retirement villages should have plenty of opportunities. Baby boomers retiring plus all the people who want to come here to avoid the next world war ... but whether this happens next year or a couple of years later ... who knows?

Anyway - I've got a number of retirement villages in my war time portfolio. Property and production facilities did well after both WW 1 and WW 2.

Despite the context, this might be a good opportunity to wish everybody a great 2026. We can't stop liars and bullies running the largest countries on earth, but we can try to still find a good place to live despite the mess created by them.

Good luck & all the best ...

[Shareguy]

Well we got to $3 briefly and finished the year well up from its lows.

The investor day on Feb 3 I'm picking will be positive and will hopefully push it over the $3.

Craigs reckons they will announce a land bank reduction from 4421 units to 2965 which is huge (33%). Future focus to be on completing villages and less capital intensive greenfield sites.

[Henry Filth]

I think Ryman is worth a punt - but not much more than a punt. Like Promisia.

I think that the demographics are a positive, but that over time the politics are a negative.

Still, a punt's a punt for all that. . . is five years a short enough time

[winner (n)]

Shareguy. ...share price got got to $3.00

Where to now?

[Shareguy]

Shareguy. ...share price got got to $3.00

Where to now?

We got there before Winner and it did not hold. The investor day I think will be a catalyst.