RYM-Ryman

[KW]

We fly to Sydney on 10th April and  return on the 10th May. 
Royal Princess is 28 days.  Tauranga, back to Auckland, Pago Pago, Tahiti, Hawaii then Los Angles. Big ship and will have to wash hands all the time to be free of Covid.

The above was in an email my brother sent me.He lives in Hobart.He is 84 and his wife is 83.
There will be 3,540 passengers on board if it is fully booked.

Pity they are missing out on the Ryman offer...lol

But is he typical of elderly people in retirement villages?  Perhaps ask him if he would still be going on a cruise if he was on his own?

They could just give the person $15k off the price of the ORA and they can buy their own cruise ticket.  Or use it to get the knee replacement that they cant get on the public waiting list.  Or buy a car.  Assuming that everyone wants to spend $15k on overseas travel is just bad marketing.  

Also, what happens if the voucher is never used?  

[lorraina]

But is he typical of elderly people in retirement villages?  Perhaps ask him if he would still be going on a cruise if he was on his own?

They could just give the person $15k off the price of the ORA and they can buy their own cruise ticket.  Or use it to get the knee replacement that they cant get on the public waiting list.  Or buy a car.  Assuming that everyone wants to spend $15k on overseas travel is just bad marketing. 

Also, what happens if the voucher is never used? 

I think the answer would be he would decide to live on a cruise ship full time.lol

[Greekwatchdog]

Interesting Read

https://milfordasset.com/insights/ep27-the-rise-and-fall-of-ryman-whats-next

[Shareguy]

Thanks for posting. So $10m of assets and $3m market cap......

[KW]

Thanks for posting. So $10m of assets and $3m market cap......

Only if you believe that the assets are really worth that amount if sold on the open market to a willing buyer.  And not just a fictional accounting entry from years of revaluations undertaken by non independent valuers. 

[Basil]

10 billion of assets but from that you need to subtract all the Billions of liabilities.  The market cap is absolutely not 30% of NTA or anything even remotely like it.  Maybe 30% discount to the real NTA, if that.

[Basil]

Has RYM lost its way a bit ?  A friend noticed this add https://www.seek.co.nz/job/83651511?savedSearchID=7d5d60e7-7032-4903-a495-0681171431f0&tracking=JMC-SavedSearch-anz-2

Just checked.  Share price at $2.50 is more than a decade low.  Have to go back all the way to December 2011, just after SUM listed to see the share price at this level.  Over that same timeframe SUM have gone from their IPO price of $1.35 to $11.30, more than 8 times your money.

Talk was the post cash issue NTA was supposed to be about $4.95 but another $300m in write-downs to come so maybe its really about $4.50.  $2.50 is certainly a huge discount to adjusted NTA but where too from here ?  My sense is maybe we are somewhere near the bottom, surely won't go under $2.00 ? but the bottoming process could be very protracted, (2 more years?), with little in the way of dividends to ease the pain.

Maybe it's one for those prepared to play the long game who don't need dividends but its not for me.

[BlackPeter]

Has RYM lost its way a bit ?  A friend noticed this add https://www.seek.co.nz/job/83651511?savedSearchID=7d5d60e7-7032-4903-a495-0681171431f0&tracking=JMC-SavedSearch-anz-2

...

Interesting. Are you applying?

I guess looking at the job title (Head of Enterprise Transformation), they seem to look for somebody who is doing what rightly should be the CEO's main role, but looking at the jobdescription it might be just a glorious title for a glorified admin job (running already defined improvement projects).

But hey - they seem to have realised they have a problem. Now lets hire somebody to fix it. Easy.

[Shareguy]

I see the job lists experience with Private Equity or M&A Integration - Skilled in value creation and performance improvement.

Well they are going to need those skills "if and when" that takeover happens. FB are suggesting the time has come to add property exposures to your portfolio.

I see Ryman as great buying at $2.50. Could it go to $2.00? Yes with all the market turmoil, but I doubt it. Our dollar is weak, it's way below even Craig's worst cast scenario of another $500m write down. Interest rates are dropping.

Craig's I think said you can't eat NTA. I'm happy snacking bit by bit. At these prices getting fuller by the week.

I feasted with MetLife and Arvida and think the good times are coming. In the meantime I'm happy to wait.

Disc: Ryman is my largest retirement stock position.

[Basil]

Interesting. Are you applying?

I guess looking at the job title (Head of Enterprise Transformation), they seem to look for somebody who is doing what rightly should be the CEO's main role, but looking at the jobdescription it might be just a glorious title for a glorified admin job (running already defined improvement projects).

But hey - they seem to have realised they have a problem. Now lets hire somebody to fix it. Easy.

That was my first thought when I read it.  Isn't that someone's job like Simon Challis who used to do it so well ?
I'm an old dog now and not looking for any fresh challenges.

"You can't eat NTA" is arguably the best quote of this decade when it comes to retirement villages. I note the forecast cash burn is still highly problematic in FY26 and that's with them capitalizing both interest and overhead costs related to developments, (capitalization policies under review).  What's the wager the new auditors want to kitchen sink a few other historical accounting issues with their first audit this year ?   This is a stock for those with more patience than I have and who don't ever want meaningful dividends.

[Basil]

WOW, if I'm reading today's chart correctly looks like someone sold down 39m shares this morning at $2.20.

[Shareguy]

53m shares were taken up by the underwriters and sub underwriters. I'm thinking the overhang is coming to an end.

Doubled my holdings today. Is now my largest NZX position.

[Basil]

53m shares were taken up by the underwriters and sub underwriters. I'm thinking the overhang is coming to an end.

Doubled my holdings today. Is now my largest NZX position.

I'm not so sure the overhang is gone.  Whoever bought that bunch of shares at $2.20 might want to unload some, and arbitrage a profit.  Aside from that I can't see the sector picking up until the housing market does and RYM and OCA with their respective deep systemic issues are arguably only fairly priced around where they currently are.  Might take years to get any positive eps momentum is how I see it, meanwhile you're trapped with no dividend or one so small with no imputation credits, it might as well be nothing.  Good luck mate...I reckon the whole sector is going nowhere anytime soon and that includes best of breed by far, SUM.  Disc: No exposure whatsoever to the retirement sector malaise.

[moose]

It looks like kingfish earned their fee for February having not only not participated in the capital raise but also sold their entire holding

[snapiti]

Still digesting the results but can clearly see why they needed a cap raise