RYM-Ryman

[Buzz]

Apart from Orr at RBNZ being more dovish nothing has changed to alleviate any of my concerns articulated in post #330 above.

Although I agree to some extent, I tend to think your assessment of the RBNZ position is overly pessimistic. It's clear to me that they recognise inflation has peaked and will revert in due course, be that this year or early next remains to be seen.

You've said in the past, which many would agree with, markets are forward looking. Any amelioration of interest rates will flow into interest-rate sensitive stocks, it would not be surprising at all if these stocks started to price in a reduction in inflation. All imo.

[Basil]

Although I agree to some extent, I tend to think your assessment of the RBNZ position is overly pessimistic. It's clear to me that they recognise inflation has peaked and will revert in due course, be that this year or early next remains to be seen.

You've said in the past, which many would agree with, markets are forward looking. Any amelioration of interest rates will flow into interest-rate sensitive stocks, it would not be surprising at all if these stocks started to price in a reduction in inflation. All imo.

Agree 100% the market is forward looking, 6-12 months in my opinion.
Interest rate sensitive stocks should benefit, especially those bought for yield.
The problem for this sector is there is either no dividend or so little it might as well be none so any interest rate sensitivity benefit accrues only by extension from real estate movements and volumes, and you'll be well aware of my recent comments about the market still being well above average levels of affordability.  OCR reductions are going to take quite some time to flow through to the real estate market considering the vast majority of buyers used fixed rate mortgages rather than floating.

Forbar are far and away the standout optimists on this sector with recommendations on OCA at circa $1 and this at $7.50.  Jarden's are at $4.04 a year hence and OCA in the late 60's cents, (along with Craigs), both price targets make a lot more common sense to me than Forbar who appear to be trying to fly a kite in very light winds.

I was pleasing to see Ariane Orr's unexpected lurch from being very hawkish 6 weeks ago to being quite dovish.   The elephant in the China shop has finally stopped throwing his weight around to pause and reflect...but a heck of a lot of damage has been done to the economy already.

[Breezy]

Got a $4 handle now, thats double a $2 handle, be $6 handle in a couple of years and maybe a $8 handle a couple of years after that.

[Basil]

I suggested $2 something wouldn't surprise me, meaning $2.90 as you know I have previously clearly articulated.

[Breezy]

I suggested $2 something wouldn't surprise me, meaning $2.90 as you know I have previously clearly articulated.

Up 7% today so you can forget any handle starting with a 2, wrong call.

[Basil]

When are you expecting them to be double the share price of SUM 

[Breezy]

When are you expecting them to be double the share price of SUM 

They were for 6 yrs so pretty happy with that call, probably more upside for RYM from here as well.

[Basil]

Pretty sure you said it would "always be that way" but that's ancient history.
For what its worth just because I said a handle starting with a 2, i.e. $2.90 wouldn't surprise me, that doesn't automatically follow that's what I think its worth.
For mine, they earned just on 40 cps underlying earnings last year and have a massive amount of work to do in the years ahead to prove they can grow that so my thesis is that given they have made such a complete hash of things in recent years, they deserve to be in the half price NTA club along with ARV and OCA.  I see better value at this level in both ARV in the mid 90's and (gosh, please don't fall off your chair), OCA at 52 cents than RYM with a $4+ handle.

One thing that's very pleasing is Adrian Orr at RBNZ, huge lurch which nobody was really expecting, from being extremely hawkish with monetary policy only 6 weeks ago to being quite dovish.  That will benefit all stocks going forward not just the ones that have made a complete and utter mess of things in recent years and disingenuously mislead investors on their true earnings, just for good measure.

Just as well the new management and board can be totally trusted to make all the appropriate changes going forward and we know this because of...oh hang on a minute, nothing because they have yet to prove themselves.  Hanging out much of the dirty laundry regarding how they have egregiously misled investors
and mismanaged the company is only the first step in a very long pathway towards rebuilding the trust and respect this company once had.  It's going to take, many, many years for trust to be rebuilt.

[Shareguy]

Pretty sure you said it would "always be that way" but that's ancient history.
For what its worth just because I said a handle starting with a 2, i.e. $2.90 wouldn't surprise me, that doesn't automatically follow that's what I think its worth.
For mine, they earned just on 40 cps underlying earnings last year and have a massive amount of work to do in the years ahead to prove they can grow that so my thesis is that given they have made such a complete hash of things in recent years, they deserve to be in the half price NTA club along with ARV and OCA.  I see better value at this level in both ARV in the mid 90's and (gosh, please don't fall off your chair), OCA at 52 cents than RYM with a $4+ handle.

One thing that's very pleasing is Adrian Orr at RBNZ, huge lurch which nobody was really expecting, from being extremely hawkish with monetary policy only 6 weeks ago to being quite dovish.  That will benefit all stocks going forward not just the ones that have made a complete and utter mess of things in recent years and disingenuously mislead investors on their true earnings, just for good measure.

Just as well the new management and board can be totally trusted to make all the appropriate changes going forward and we know this because of...oh hang on a minute, nothing because they have yet to prove themselves.  Hanging out much of the dirty laundry regarding how they have egregiously misled investors
and mismanaged the company is only the first step in a very long pathway towards rebuilding the trust and respect this company once had.  It's going to take, many, many years for trust to be rebuilt.

You bring up some very valid points Basil. I agree will take time to rebuild trust with the investment community. Not without risk. However It's still loved by residents and seen as the number one place to reside in many people's eyes. They have the trust of residents, only time will tell if shareholders trust is re gained. The whole sector is beaten down and I'm picking that Ryman is potentially a multi bagger for those with patience. I'm picking that we have seen the bottom and the reserve bank have signalled cuts to the OCR which has been well received by the markets. I am 100 percent invested with all cash deployed.

Disc/ My second largest position on the NZX currently.

[Basil]

Quite right Shareguy, readers digest most trusted brand for many years in a row but it's interesting that hasn't translated into good unit sales in recent years.
Sometimes I wonder when people participate in those survey's and are asked which is the most trusted brand, they simply pick the brand they know the best.
Realistically, notwithstanding my large holding in Turners shares, I acknowledge it's probably the same phenomenon behind them winning most trusted used car dealership many years in a row.

[Shareguy]

Come a long way from its low of $3.40 on 4th of July. $5 looking realistic sooner than thought.

[winner (n)]

Forbat target $7 heading to goodness knows where ...great opportunity

Jarden target reported as $4.04 ...neutral

Current share price $4.44

Hmmm

[Shareguy]

Forbat target $7 heading to goodness knows where ...great opportunity

Craig's target reported as $4.04 ...neutral

Current share price $4.44

Hmmm

Hope so Winner. Craig's latest is Target price -11% to $5.73, retain Overweight. Maybe buyers don't believe Dekker valuation.

Craig's consensus is $5.90 from 6 analysts. 5 buy and 1 hold

[Basil]

Maybe A.I. did write that Forbar report as suggested to me by someone on here?  From a professional point of view regarding accounting standards, which they went on and on about not being appropriate for RYM's situation, I'd wager A.I. did a deep dive on ST content to come up with that absolute nonsense.

I still maintain ARV and OCA are better buying here than RYM, (if you're bottom fishing you might as well buy the cheapest catfish), who have been actively engaging in an orchestrated litany of lies with their financial statements for years.  Just as well we know leopards easily change their spots... (sarcasm).

[ValueNZ]

Maybe A.I. did write that Forbar report as suggested to me by someone on here?  From a professional point of view regarding accounting standards, which they went on and on about not being appropriate for RYM's situation, I'd wager A.I. did a deep dive on ST content to come up with that absolute nonsense.

I still maintain ARV and OCA are better buying here than RYM, (if you're bottom fishing you might as well buy the cheapest catfish), who have been actively engaging in an orchestrated litany of lies with their financial statements for years.  Just as well we know leopards easily change their spots... (sarcasm).

To me the article doesn't look AI-generated, but who knows? It was definitely poorly written.

There is a lot of regurgitation of the ideas of users on Sharetrader though.