RYM-Ryman

[Basil]

really most shares trade on sentiment more than anything else......I would suggest buying when sentiment is low rather than high works out better in the long run.
I have started to buy RYM, with a strategy of leveraging down if I have to over the next 6 months. At some stage sentiment will change

Bullet point overview of how I see it.
1.RYM reputation from an investor point of view is in absolute tatters.
2.Directors and management face potential class action lawsuits for deliberate deception, negligence and possible other causes of action 
3. Half the board are new and unproven; the other half have engaged in deliberate deception for many years
4..Rudderless ship with no CEO
5.Complete overhaul of their business model required, DMF is unsustainably low and fixed fees for life simply doesn't work anymore with rampant village operational cost inflation
6. Chronic oversupply of stock on the market especially in Auckland
7. Debt is too high
8. Its not cheap on a price to NTA basis compared to ARV, (reputation unsullied by gross mismanagement of deliberate deception) or OCA
9. The entire sector faces headwinds from a very sluggish housing market
10. Long term outlook in my view is the whole business model only works well when there's genuine house price gains, (over and above the inflation rate on a sustained basis as this allows rampant resale profits).  After house price gains outstripping inflation since RYM listed by a factor of 7:1, the likelihood of a very protracted period of subdued housing prices relative to inflation is exceptionally high and could persist for a decade or more.
11. Underlying profit being discarded as a performance yardstick but no worries, (sarcasm intended), they'll just make up some new performance measurement statistics to suit their purposes and / or disguise their ongoing woeful financial performance going forward.

Probably a lot more that I have forgotten.   So many headwinds and such an incredibly torturously long and winding road for RYM to travel to try and get back some semblance of the reputation they once enjoyed under Simon Challis leadership.  Actually, I think I would rather buy OCA at 55 cents that this and that's really saying something for me.

Great sector to avoid altogether, especially this one.  Trust is earned, not given, and once its betrayed and broken...
I wouldn't be holding my breath for sentiment to turn on this if I were you.

[KW]

really most shares trade on sentiment more than anything else......I would suggest buying when sentiment is low rather than high works out better in the long run.
I have started to buy RYM, with a strategy of leveraging down if I have to over the next 6 months. At some stage sentiment will change 

They most certainly do trade on sentiment.  But I would suggest that you might be a bit early.  The big Euro investor bailing out might be the first sign that RYM is entering the Capitulation stage.  But it still has to go through the Despondency and Depression stages, before Hope arrives and it begins to look like a buy.  You'll know when RYM is through the final stages when it drops off the forum list of most discussed stocks 

[Dolcile]

Basil, why do you have a problem with moving away from Underlying Profit? Personally I think that is a good thing.  Underlying profit seems to be a nonsense in this sector - since it is basically unrealised gains.   

Net profit excluding fair value gains feels like a much better measure

[snapiti]

They most certainly do trade on sentiment.  But I would suggest that you might be a bit early.  The big Euro investor bailing out might be the first sign that RYM is entering the Capitulation stage.  But it still has to go through the Despondency and Depression stages, before Hope arrives and it begins to look like a buy.  You'll know when RYM is through the final stages when it drops off the forum list of most discussed stocks 

see I am not interested in picking bottoms that is a mugs game, if I am early then, happy to leverage down from here, as I already said......sentiment will turn one day

[Basil]

But I would suggest that you might be a bit early.

I think that's the understatement of the year.  FAR too early.

Basil, why do you have a problem with moving away from Underlying Profit?... Net profit excluding fair value gains feels like a much better measure

I agree 100% with your last sentence and that's exactly what underlying profit is.
You're getting confused, (which is easy in this sector), between reported profit after tax (which includes all fair value movements and revaluations which are required under Intenational financial reporting standards, IFRS16 from memory) and real realized underlying profit which is exactly what underlying profit is.  Have a look at the recent GMT result, its a lot easier to understand.  They posted a huge loss (IFRS16 required them to take massive devaluations of their properties into the profit and loss statement) but still made decent underlying profit which is how they can maintain their dividend.

The current board, (who are a combination of people with no experience in the sector and those who have mislead shareholders for the last decade) believe they know better than the founders of this company who established underlying profit as the most appropriate performance yardstick. 

I'd wager a lot of money all the other companies in this sector will stick with underlying profit which simply means RYM will be a lone wolf in their new self-invented performance measurement methodology.  Good luck with building back credibility with professional investors and institutions taking that approach.  In effect, they have thrown the baby out with the bathwater.

My view on RYM is to start with what their underlying profit was for FY24, 39 cents per share, apply a no growth PE of 8 to that, $3.12 and then try and work out whether the new board and management are going to add value in the years ahead at a rate better than the others in this sector, (extremely unlikely in my view).  My view is this is likely to be dead money for years with no dividends for quite a while and thereafter at such an extremely low level it might as well be zero.

The best chance of value accretion, in my opinion is if this joins the 50%+ off club in this sector with ARV and OCA and stays under $3 for a protracted period of time.  Some large overseas fund who actually know how to run things properly might then think its a plausible takeover target on the basis they can replace the entire board and senior management with experienced people who know what they're doing.

At this point I think ARV is more takeover ready (provided the board have learned their lesson from the recent $1.70 rebuff fiasco, which is by no means a certainty).  If you're bottom fishing for a takeover and hoping to catch something decent, I reckon that's the best place to throw your line in the water.

I see no reason whatsoever why RYM should trade at a price to NTA premium to ARV, (itself, currently below 50% to NTA) and plenty why they should trade at a discount to that level.  Frankly they deserve to join the 60% off NTA club with OCA until they prove otherwise and start to redeem themselves and restore credibility.

I maintain my SELL rating of $8.50 from a decade ago and have never seen a compelling case to own them since.  Gosh if you'd sold these more than 10 years ago and reinvested in SUM instead, you'd be a happy camper, (ask me how I know)   (I did subsequently sell SUM prior to covid at ~ $9 more than 4 years ago and haven't missed much since then).

I cannot foresee what catalyst there is for RYM to get out of its funk in the foreseeable future.
Disc: Former RYM shareholder from a long time ago under Simon Challis excellent leadership.

[Untamed]

Fixing a financial disaster: Full Ryman chairman interview -NZ Herald

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=A416HMp1o5c&feature=mweb_c3_open_app_11268432&itc_campaign=mweb_c3_open_app_11268432&redirect_app_store_ios=1&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0hPwHp4yqthAdkuDOvzhjZmy6o3phQpi5qZZlnE9qnFHSNOptY7d3FcUs_aem_ARr66435jLzmnihtGK5KsgiPPaVYhFHEF1CnH8m6uWmaVN0SkqSse-msfSGYg_3DZ_RBs-ysure8Ju2JRICXmEuz

Just finished watching this. Very impressed with Dean Hamilton. Pity he is not willing to consider taking on the CEO role. Not a RYM holder, but I found this interview, and everything Dean had to say, very interesting. Very relevant to the whole sector.

[Teitei]

Fixing a financial disaster: Full Ryman chairman interview -NZ Herald

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=A416HMp1o5c&feature=mweb_c3_open_app_11268432&itc_campaign=mweb_c3_open_app_11268432&redirect_app_store_ios=1&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0hPwHp4yqthAdkuDOvzhjZmy6o3phQpi5qZZlnE9qnFHSNOptY7d3FcUs_aem_ARr66435jLzmnihtGK5KsgiPPaVYhFHEF1CnH8m6uWmaVN0SkqSse-msfSGYg_3DZ_RBs-ysure8Ju2JRICXmEuz

Just finished watching this. Very impressed with Dean Hamilton. Pity he is not willing to consider taking on the CEO role. Not a RYM holder, but I found this interview, and everything Dean had to say, very interesting. Very relevant to the whole sector.

First step to fixing problems is acknowledging the problems.  Ryman gets a tick now that they have fronted up to the problems.

Second step of fixing the problems is going to require a lot of effort and forbearance by shareholders - do they have what it takes?

So much is going to depend on who is the new CEO. 

[Nizzy]

Fixing a financial disaster: Full Ryman chairman interview -NZ Herald

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=A416HMp1o5c&feature=mweb_c3_open_app_11268432&itc_campaign=mweb_c3_open_app_11268432&redirect_app_store_ios=1&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0hPwHp4yqthAdkuDOvzhjZmy6o3phQpi5qZZlnE9qnFHSNOptY7d3FcUs_aem_ARr66435jLzmnihtGK5KsgiPPaVYhFHEF1CnH8m6uWmaVN0SkqSse-msfSGYg_3DZ_RBs-ysure8Ju2JRICXmEuz

Just finished watching this. Very impressed with Dean Hamilton. Pity he is not willing to consider taking on the CEO role. Not a RYM holder, but I found this interview, and everything Dean had to say, very interesting. Very relevant to the whole sector.

great interview. 

[Shareguy]

Fixing a financial disaster: Full Ryman chairman interview -NZ Herald

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=A416HMp1o5c&feature=mweb_c3_open_app_11268432&itc_campaign=mweb_c3_open_app_11268432&redirect_app_store_ios=1&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0hPwHp4yqthAdkuDOvzhjZmy6o3phQpi5qZZlnE9qnFHSNOptY7d3FcUs_aem_ARr66435jLzmnihtGK5KsgiPPaVYhFHEF1CnH8m6uWmaVN0SkqSse-msfSGYg_3DZ_RBs-ysure8Ju2JRICXmEuz

Just finished watching this. Very impressed with Dean Hamilton. Pity he is not willing to consider taking on the CEO role. Not a RYM holder, but I found this interview, and everything Dean had to say, very interesting. Very relevant to the whole sector.

Thanks for posting.

I agree Dean Is a very solid and credible chair which is one of the reasons that I have taken a larger position. His point regarding Rymans offering is important. Shareholders may not be happy but residents clearly are, which is why they are still the market leader. I believe that others will follow Rymans lead in separating care costs. It will make it much easier for the government to fund it as they will clearly see the costs of care. This was a bugbear of Andrew Little who rightly said the retirement sector was not transparent. Handing out the dosh to shareholders in one hand and claiming care is under funded fell on deaf ears. I think a line in the sand has been drawn here. The government will have to come to the party, otherwise our hospitals will continue to face the consequences of underfunding the sector. The ceo appointment will hopefully be a good one. I agree Untamed a shame that Dean does not take it up.

Rymans underlying result I thought was actually pretty good. DMF grew +15% year-over-year in 2H24. Also made it clear that there is no plans for another cap raise as debt was managable. I don't expect a divi for years and think it's good that when it happens it will be based on free cash flow. Not expecting miracles with the share price but think that the downside is limited from here. I'm picking that $3.60 was the low. Time will tell.

[winner (n)]

Good interview with Hamilton ....doing the job at Ryman it seems

Obviously didn't have much influence at Warehouse Group being a Director there since 2020 (even though Warehouse web site said he was appointed in 2016) He's 'overseen' the last few years disasters there...probably supporting our Nick to the end

Can't win them all ......team effort

[Breezy]

Lol 4 traders avg tp of $6 with 4 buy ratings and 1 hold, market way wrong aye.

[Shareguy]

FB latest note out today.

They believe RYM can deliver a ~3x increase in value over the next three years. Making RYM one of the most attractive opportunities in NZ.

[allfromacell]

The chart certainly looks healthy. All the "don't buy downtrends" traders will be buying around $5. That's good.

Cuts in August, watch the fomo commence.

[Breezy]

FB latest note out today.

They believe RYM can deliver a ~3x increase in value over the next three years. Making RYM one of the most attractive opportunities in NZ.

Some on here reckon its going to have a $2 something handle coming up, I reckon they are barking mad.

[Basil]

Apart from Orr at RBNZ being more dovish nothing has changed to alleviate any of my concerns articulated in post #330 above.