RYM-Ryman

[Shareguy]

Gosh a nasty downgrade. Not much to be happy with here. It seems after the Stella update from Summerset that this is more company specific (will soon find out) Rymans offering and building type not going down to well. Under capital raise price ($5).

Once the market darling now the ugly duckling. However there is value and after all FB said recently it's the most under valued mid cap stock in NZ.

RYM delivered ~100x to investors from its listing in late 1999 to 2019. Outperforming the quality growth triumvirate that is MFT, EBO, and FPH. Since then it has lost 2/3 of its value as its cash recycling broke down.

So what's it worth......

[snapiti]

A few more thoughts. I see future dividends, if any, from FY26 are going to be based on free cash flow so investors can assume they will be very modest indeed, when they eventually return.  My view as a semi-retired investor heading into retirement in the next few years is any company that can't afford to pay me a decent dividend, is not fit for purpose for my portfolio.

I think the days of expecting rampant capital gains from housing and by extension, retirement companies are long gone.   At best, housing will muddle along for the foreseeable future at its already extremely unaffordable level.  Maybe housing keeps pace with inflation, (no increase in real terms) or perhaps not.  Interest rates will need to fall a VERY long way for capital gains to be back on the radar.  RBNZ's statement yesterday suggests you'll need to be very, very patient.

Could this go down to join the 50% off NTA club like ARV and OCA?  Frankly, with their reputation in tatters, I think that's where it belongs.  Clearly my view is the former reputation of this company which used to be held in high regard, is meaningless.

I remember the days many on the other channel scoffed at me when SUM was half the price of RYM when I suggested one day SUM's share price would exceed RYM.  Well, I have well and truly proved them wrong so I have two new predictions.
There will come a day in the future where SUM is double the share price of RYM and fifteen times the price of OCA.  Mark my words.
 

is today that day Mr Beagle RYM 4.80 SUM 11

[Basil]

is today that day Mr Beagle RYM 4.80 SUM 11

It would seem it indeed is, Snapper me ol mate.
1 SUM = 2.26 RYM and 17.2 OCA.
In answer to your question Shareguy of what's it really worth.  I stand by my comment in the third paragraph of the post Snapper quoted.  This latest really ugly update does nothing to improve my view, it merely reinforces it.  No other company in this sector is executing well, expect SUM.  All others are set to disappoint, or deeply disappoint. 

[Shareguy]

From Craigs this morning

Switch from RYM to SUM
RYM's chunky downgrades to build rate and earnings guidance so soon after its Feb 2023 capital raising, despite market conditions improving, is another clear signal things are worse than previously understood. This will be a long, slow, turnaround, though to be clear we think the business will eventually turn as its brand remains strong. We retain Overweight for RYM on valuation grounds (TP -12.4% to $6.46) but SUM remains our clear #1 sector pick.

[Hectorplains]

Ryman has announced that Richard Umbers has resigned and is, "leaving Ryman in accordance with his contractual terms." The tone of the ann is not warm.

[Basil]

So...another CEO in this sector bites the dust.  Wonder if ARV's CEO will last much longer?
Scott Scollullar at SUM has plenty to be proud of and the only one in this entire sector entitled to feel that way. 

[Hectorplains]

So...another CEO in this sector bites the dust.  Wonder if ARV's CEO will last much longer?
Scott Scollullar at SUM has plenty to be proud of and the only one in this entire sector entitled to feel that way. 

Only two years in the job too.  Umber came from a background in mostly retail.  I get that skills are transferable et al but you don't often, for example, see a coach from one sport picked up by a different sport and making a success of the transition.  Alan Jones was the most successful coach in ARU history but he sucked for the Balmain Tigers in the NRL.

Balmain were runners-up in 1988 and 1989 in the premiership, In 1990 they appointed Jones in charge.   His record: 1991 – 8 wins, 12th place (out of 16 teams) ; 1992 – 10 wins, 10th place; 1993 – 5 wins, 12th place.

Maybe Ryman could look at some one with direct experience in RV, or at least property development?  Preferably too someone who can construct a sentence in English.  This is Mr Umber's Linkedin bio, "Highly strategic, but with a bias for execution, and proven expertise in building strong teams, fostering alignment and executing large scale organisational change." 

Perhaps, Brent from OCA could be coaxed into the seat ... Or failing him maybe Rob Penny from the Crusaders.

[Basil]

My take on RYM is it's never been the same since the legend Simon Challis stood down.  Even his understudy Gordy was a pale shadow of a leader by comparison.  Umbers has been a disaster for shareholders.  I called RYM a SELL 10 years ago in early 2014 on the other channel when it was ~ $8.50.  A lost decade and ~ half their money to boot with it from shareholders hoping their dream run from past glorious times under Simon's legendary leadership would continue.

The reality is, their high initial price, and lower DMF business model simply isn't working very well these days.  I think the removal of their 6 month buy-back guarantee was a massive mistake and has really undermined the brand. Last time I looked they still claim on their website nobody has waited longer than 6 months to resell their unit.  I seriously doubt the truth of that claim.  If it were true, why remove the guarantee? 

The USPP fiasco has undermined confidence in the board, the management and forever affected the company in terms of lower eps going forward.  A complete unmitigated fiasco of enormous proportions.  Be interesting to see how much underlying earnings per share have declined in FY24.  The fact they want to remove underlying profit as their measurement base speaks for itself in terms of probably being more creative incoming B.S..

The blue-chip status they once enjoyed has been lost to SUM a long time ago and along with it their first mover advantage.  For those that like this sector, SUM on 13.6 times last year's underlying earnings looks like a solid long-term hold to me but you will need enormous patience to see decent gains from here so don't hold your breath waiting for the share price to climb north in a hurry. 

[winner (n)]

Market close report

Ryman Healthcare was down 2c to an 11-year low of $4.32 following the sudden departure of chief executive Richard Umbers. Dean Hamilton will become the executive chair while a new chief executive is appointed. Ryman reaffirmed its full-year underlying profit guidance of $265m-$285m.

Sullivan said it's never comforting "when you see a chief executive leave so quickly, and there must have been some unsettled conversations at the board level about Ryman's performance."

He suggested that a further capital raise may be in the offing as Ryman is building faster than it is generating cash at present. Ryman raised $902m on the market in February last year.

[Breezy]

Worth a punt at these levels i reckon, wife wants to buy some so always a good sign.

[Waltzing]

Which way is the wind blowing ... looks like southerly? they can be a bit cold...

[Breezy]

Which way is the wind blowing ... looks like southerly? they can be a bit cold...

My favorite wind and I love the cold, has to be below minus 10 celcius before I start feeling a bit uncomfortable on the skifield.

[Waltzing]

https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/56973/speech-now-is-the-winter-of-our-discontent

[Shareguy]

I suspect todays interest is related to the rebalancing of MSCI indices. Should have confirmation in the morning.

[Buzz]

I suspect todays interest is related to the rebalancing of MSCI indices. Should have confirmation in the morning.

Yes, a blip before the decline continues, unless RYM retains its position. On tenterhooks here, could go either way.