RYM-Ryman

[Basil]

I wonder if Summerset with its CPI adjusted fee also sets incoming residents fees higher?  Fixed fees are unfair to incoming residents, as they will then be subsidising the provision of village facilities by paying higher weekly fees to compensate for all those residents still on low weekly fees.  In fairness, everyone should pay the same.

I talked this over with the village manager at SUM's huge Hobsonville village a few years ago.
The first residents there did get a great deal, (subsequently increased annually at a rate that's capped at the rate of increase in superannuation), but nevertheless, my recollection is early residents there are continuing to enjoy a price advantage.  To be fair, for several years they had to endure a village without many communal facilities and the noise and dust from construction for many years.
RYM also used to do really sharp weekly fees with new villages if you buy off the plans.
Breezy might know if they are still doing this.

A little snippet she mentioned to remember when you're considering moving into a new village, is bring a young cute dog with you.  Helps enormously as an icebreaker meeting new people and as one gets older, one might be less capable of looking after their dog so the village manager might not let you replace it so start with a young one and make it a condition of the sales agreement that that member of your family can move in with you otherwise its no deal!

[BlackPeter]

Immigration is not happening, at least not on a net basis.  Sure, there was an inflow of 100,000 people in 2022 when the borders reopened, but that was to be expected after locking everyone out for 3 years.  Lots of visa holders returning, family members coming to stay, retirees returning home etc.  BUT if you look at the numbers for 2023 its now a net negative for the year, so reducing that 100k that arrived last year.  Why?  Because there are more people now leaving than arriving - and those leaving (going by all the real estate ads touting "vendor relocating overseas") are home sellers while those coming in on temporary work, student, or tourist visas are not home buyers.  A net 24,000 people left NZ in March, 34,000 left in April, and as of Thursday a net 21,000 people have left in May.  Just wait until the mainstream media catch hold of that information!

The good news is that unemployment isnt likely to rise much but that then means inflation won't subside either.  So the market is now pricing in an OCR of 6%.  It may  go higher when the rest of the world cottons on to the fact that immigration is negative.  If Labour get back in, I would expect that outflow of people to get even worse. All the elderly are stuck here, because they are dependent on the pension, but if there is nobody to buy their overpriced houses, how will they afford their retirement village?

Interesting statements.

Do you have a source for the immigration data you are stating? Stats NZ seems to have released their latest data only to February 2023 ... as usual NZ is a bit slower than anybody else in presenting new numbers.

[KW]

A little snippet she mentioned to remember when you're considering moving into a new village, is bring a young cute dog with you.  Helps enormously as an icebreaker meeting new people and as one gets older, one might be less capable of looking after their dog so the village manager might not let you replace it so start with a young one and make it a condition of the sales agreement that that member of your family can move in with you otherwise its no deal!

Interestingly, all the villages we saw were really accommodating of pets.  It seems that being pet friendly is now standard business practice.  My dad is taking his cat, and will be putting in a cat door for it.  The cat is only 4, so he should get at least another 10 years out of it lol

[Basil]

Interestingly, all the villages we saw were really accommodating of pets.  It seems that being pet friendly is now standard business practice.  My dad is taking his cat, and will be putting in a cat door for it.  The cat is only 4, so he should get at least another 10 years out of it lol

Good for him.  Not sure how you would get on with multiple little ankle biters or me for that matter with my pony sized dog lol 

[KW]

Good for him.  Not sure how you would get on with multiple little ankle biters or me for that matter with my pony sized dog lol 

The trick is to take in a black pet.  Then you can just replace it when it dies with another black one, and nobody would ever notice 

[Basil]

The trick is to take in a black pet.  Then you can just replace it when it dies with another black one, and nobody would ever notice 

LOL You're more cunning than a hungry Beagle.

[Left Field]

Interesting appointment

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415471

[BlackPeter]

Immigration is not happening, at least not on a net basis.  Sure, there was an inflow of 100,000 people in 2022 when the borders reopened, but that was to be expected after locking everyone out for 3 years.  Lots of visa holders returning, family members coming to stay, retirees returning home etc.  BUT if you look at the numbers for 2023 its now a net negative for the year, so reducing that 100k that arrived last year.  Why?  Because there are more people now leaving than arriving - and those leaving (going by all the real estate ads touting "vendor relocating overseas") are home sellers while those coming in on temporary work, student, or tourist visas are not home buyers.  A net 24,000 people left NZ in March, 34,000 left in April, and as of Thursday a net 21,000 people have left in May.  Just wait until the mainstream media catch hold of that information!

The good news is that unemployment isnt likely to rise much but that then means inflation won't subside either.  So the market is now pricing in an OCR of 6%.  It may  go higher when the rest of the world cottons on to the fact that immigration is negative.  If Labour get back in, I would expect that outflow of people to get even worse. All the elderly are stuck here, because they are dependent on the pension, but if there is nobody to buy their overpriced houses, how will they afford their retirement village?

Hi KW, I asked you at the time you made this brave statment where these predictions come from - but you didn't answer.

Maybe you recheck your sources and do in future always the opposite of what they predict.

Anyway - immigration (as expected by anybody else but you is humming - just have a look into todays disclosure of the government books:

"The Treasury assumes annual net migration will peak in the September 2023 quarter close to 100,000 and add approximately 45,000 more people over the forecast horizon than assumed in the Budget Update,"

It was immigrants saving Robertsons butt ... nearly 100,000 net coming in last 12 months.

Not that he deserved that, given the way Labour treated them during Covid, but this is another story.

[BlackPeter]

Hi KW, I asked you at the time you made this brave statment where these predictions come from - but you didn't answer.

Maybe you recheck your sources and do in future always the opposite of what they predict.

Anyway - immigration (as expected by anybody else but you is humming - just have a look into todays disclosure of the government books:

"The Treasury assumes annual net migration will peak in the September 2023 quarter close to 100,000 and add approximately 45,000 more people over the forecast horizon than assumed in the Budget Update,"

It was immigrants saving Robertsons butt ... nearly 100,000 net coming in last 12 months.

Not that he deserved that, given the way Labour treated them during Covid, but this is another story.

... and just in case anybody wonders, what this has to do with Rym?

Well, the housing market actually did bottomed out (as well thanks to immigration), plenty of people coming in and all these retirees wanting to move into their respective RYM, OCA, SUM or ARV unit will have little problems to sell their houses. Win - win and win!

[kiwi2007]

https://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=384253

12 September 2023
Provisional Stats NZ figures show a net gain of 96-thousand-200 --- with 135-thousand non-citizens arriving, and 39-thousand-400 New Zealanders leaving.

Senior demographer Kim Dunstan says it's now 12 full months since the border fully re-opened after Covid restrictions.

He says the figures partly reflect that -- but there's also been some immigration setting changes.

[Shareguy]

Ryman has reported a messy 1H24 result, with underlying trading trends worse than implied by its uNPAT reported (which for the first time is adding back costs that were previously ignored). Here is Stephen Ridgewell's first take: RYM has downgraded prior build rate guidance, confirmed it has stopped work at several sites, will sell two others that are higher risk/more capex intensive, all as part of a major restructure of its build rate. These measures are all sensible given RYM's current trading but are equally the measure of a company in some distress with little risk appetite and trying to clean up a litany of errors. Ryman will eventually recover (after all, its brand with residents is still strong, even if its brand with investors is not) and the shares are cheap, but investors need to understand this process will be both long and quite painful. In our last sector note (New merit order: SUM up to #1) we made the case that investors who are heavily in RYM should make at least a partial switch from RYM to SUM, in part due to the larger number of skeletons in RYM's closet

[Basil]

SUM = blue chip, sell all others in the sector I reckon.

[KW]

SUM = blue chip, sell all others in the sector I reckon.

Charts concur.

[Waltzing]

Ok assume everyone has seen this ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ryman-healthcare-cites-challenging-housing-market-in-4pc-net-profit-drop/HZTBLTWJHNAT3GMW4JQIE4CLPU/

got some big developments in small towns in the central North Island...

[Shareguy]

Where do we think it's heading. Under $5?