RYM-Ryman

[Basil]

That is a very nice retirement villa and outlook.

Top shelf stuff, no doubt about that.  My understanding is that earlier houses built there in 2017 of the same size and waterfront were $2.1 back then so maybe these new ones in this newly opened area which are more true, north facing are mid to late $3m's... somewhere around there now?
A little birdie tells me SUM have done exceptionally well with that village site.

[Mos]

Top shelf stuff, no doubt about that.  My understanding is that earlier houses built there in 2017 of the same size and waterfront were $2.1 back then so maybe these new ones in this newly opened area which are more true, north facing are mid to late $3m's... somewhere around there now?
A little birdie tells me SUM have done exceptionally well with that village site.

Shows what the industry can do with good site acquisition and development plans - SUM have excelled at this overall and their model with mainly villas and some apartments/care seems to have more appeal that the apartment only model in most locations (other than highly desirable urban sites). OCA specifically mentioned slow uptake of apartments at their Hamilton site. Whereas I think the SUM broad acre site in Cambridge will fly out the door.

[Shareguy]

Well for my own curiosity I enquired about the new Takapuna village and can confirm that demand is so high I can't even go on the waitlist. Was told they have over 600 registered buyers so registration is closed. Prices have not been set as two years away from completion. Price indication is starting at $2m plus up to maybe $5m or higher for the top floor apartments. Will have own movie theatre, Restaurant  and Bar. Plus Hair and Beauty centre. 

For them to not even allow me to go on a waitlist shows that they are very confident in selling this out. The level of demand is what interests me.

The lovely nurture co-ordinator said

If  you are wanting your parents to join our friends of the village mailing list you will need to email me their full names, DOB, address and phone numbers.  This mailing list will keep them updated regarding the progress of the village, as advised we currently aren't taking any further waitlist enquiries but as I mentioned I am happy to add a note to their file that they are interested in being contacted if a vacancy  on the waitlist becomes available.
 

[KW]

Well for my own curiosity I enquired about the new Takapuna village and can confirm that demand is so high I can't even go on the waitlist. 

They just called me about 5 townhouses for sale in Kevin Hickman, which I was suprised about, since I thought they had a waitlist too.  

[Crackity]

Well for my own curiosity I enquired about the new Takapuna village and can confirm that demand is so high I can't even go on the waitlist. Was told they have over 600 registered buyers so registration is closed. Prices have not been set as two years away from completion. Price indication is starting at $2m plus up to maybe $5m or higher for the top floor apartments. Will have own movie theatre, Restaurant  and Bar. Plus Hair and Beauty centre. 

For them to not even allow me to go on a waitlist shows that they are very confident in selling this out. The level of demand is what interests me.

The lovely nurture co-ordinator said

If  you are wanting your parents to join our friends of the village mailing list you will need to email me their full names, DOB, address and phone numbers.  This mailing list will keep them updated regarding the progress of the village, as advised we currently aren't taking any further waitlist enquiries but as I mentioned I am happy to add a note to their file that they are interested in being contacted if a vacancy  on the waitlist becomes available.
 

That is a very weird non sales pitch - I'm baffled by the whole Ryman response

[Basil]

Yes its very surprising that they have a cap on the number of "registered buyers"
What does that term even mean without a contract and a deposit?
What tiny percentage of these, surely nothing more than recorded "expressions of interest", do they expect will proceed to purchase?
You'd expect they would have vast amounts of data on this built up over the decades so they've capped the wait list it, perhaps based on that and their experience of the cost of communicating with these people with progress updates, (not all of whom will have electronic communication channels).

Not for one minute am I disputing that they will have a huge database to support their marketing methodology and capping of numbers, however bizarre it appears, however that database is predominantly built around a period over the last two decades where we've enjoying very buoyant real estate conditions so I can't help wondering how valid are those assumptions in the current environment?

What small extra communications costs would they incur to have double the sized "registered buyers" waitlist?
If I were a shareholder, I'd be hoping that's one of the first questions their new chief strategy officer would look at.

[Shareguy]

Yes I thought was strange to cap people going on the waitlist. They must be very confident in selling this development out.

I ended up adding to my position in the cap raise and have a good sized holding so will follow this development with interest.

[KW]

Yesterday I heard radio advertising for the Kevin Hickman apartments.  Are they having to spend more money on marketing and advertising in order to get sales?  

[lorraina]

Of course they do.They are not alone.The Press has been full of retirement villages ads for the past year,including the hoity toity Mervale and the posh Fendalton and Cashmere ones..

[KW]

Soo, I am back looking at retirement villages lol

So here's an interesting titbit.  Ryman is selling a brand new build townhouse for $710k with a $20k cash back offer.  The exact same townhouse that had already been built and lived in briefly but is now available as a resale due to the occupier moving into assisted living, is being sold for $795k.  And exiting residents wonder why they cant get their money back quickly.  If there is a loss on resale, who should wear it?  And does this mean that Ryman has been forced to drop the prices of retirement units to meet the market.  Of the 7 townhouses that were released this week, only 2 have been sold.  The other five are available to walk ins off the street like my Dad lol.

[Basil]

Years ago they used to have a guarantee that the Estate / people moving out would be repaid within 6 months.
They very, very quietly dropped that guarantee as soon as it started costing them money.
Now they promise to pay you interest if it doesn't sell but you can bet you last dollar the interest rate will be a LOT less than the average rate they are paying the bank, especially if we're talking about the real funding cost of USPP debt lol. 

I think RYM lost their blue chip status when Simon Challis left and are trading on the historical status and reputation they used to enjoy.

Tell your Dad to wait until a week before next Balance date if he can, March 2024 and offer them $600K.  Odds on favorite to get it for that by then.
You could put him up at your place til then 😁

[KW]

Tell your Dad to wait until a week before next Balance date if he can, March 2024 and offer them $600K.  Odds on favorite to get it for that by then.
You could put him up at your place til then 😁

Yeah, nah 
Off to another Ryman village tomorrow, along with a Summerset one, so shall report back on that.  Also looked at a villa in an established privately run retirement village, which was lovely, the units have more privacy than the Ryman ones, and about $185k cheaper to buy.   I told my Dad that $185k buys a lot of nice steak dinners!  Interestingly, the private village also had several units available to buy, which the lady said was quite rare as usually they have none.  Are more old people dying or less old people buying?

[Basil]

More oldies stuck at home and unable to buy until they have sold their house.
That and I suspect when you add up all the new retirement unit supply from all the unlisted privately owned companies and well as every listed one building as fast as they can, the market is probably well and truly saturated and oversupplied.  Vast supply and modest demand leads to prices only going one way...

Never mind their asking price, you tell them what you think it's worth when you find one your Dad loves.  Of course, they will say their units are already priced to sell and the price is not negotiable but you're far too smart to swallow that B.S.

[Buzz]

RYM is flatlining now, it's not broken as some might be suggesting, the others are still trending down at present. None of them reflect their true value vs market price sentiment. Value investors will be like vultures circling above the carcasses, waiting for the moment to descend and have their fill.

Whatever the market macroeconomics are currently, it would be a huge investing mistake to not realise this sector has taken a massive beating and when it returns to favour, which it will because of the demographics, to not have identified an entry.

[Teitei]

Was not that long ago ...

The long waiting lists and queues for RV units according to industry players ...... what happened?