RYM-Ryman

[winner (n)]

Interesting Ryman get an article in NBR .... tryingto justify the US borrowings

Still reckon the CFO has been moved sideways .... and probably will have departed by this time last year

If you can access a good read

Taking on USPP debt right thing to do: outgoing Ryman CFO
https://www.nbr.co.nz/investment/taking-on-uspp-debt-was-right-thing-to-do-outgoing-ryman-cfo/

Best bit is -

Bennett also confirmed he attended the Private Placements Industry Forum in Florida, which was where it lined up its USPPs.

"It's like any conference, you see a lot of the hotel room and various conference rooms."

Suppose seduced by the glita and glamour of a high finance 'forum'

[Basil]

Yeap, I can't see any "ownership" by him, the CEO, the Board or anyone else for the massive destruction is shareholder value caused by the early repayment of USPP notes.  An abject failure by the Board and management to manage their debt in a prudent manner and no contrition or remorse whatsoever!

Share price performance over this Muppets tenure speaks for itself.

Seduced into this madness is an interesting thought.  Can sometimes be very subtle and often not so subtle. 

[Shareguy]

Craig's positive with latest

When will RYM shares bottom?
 Our conversations with investors indicate a broad consensus view that RYM shares are currently depressed and offer good long term value. There is also a broad consensus that house prices will continue falling this year, though views range from -10% to -25%. What is less clear is when to buy RYM shares. As the oft-quoted Mark Twain once said, "history never repeats but it often rhymes", and in this brief note we consider evidence from prior cycles to help investors better time their entry. While the GFC was quite a different cycle to the current one, it is nevertheless the only other period for which we have data available that saw a meaningful decline in house prices (-9% vs -18% to date for the current cycle), and so we focus our analysis on this period.
RYM shares have de-rated similarly to the GFC...
During the GFC, RYM shares fell 42% from a peak in Nov 2007 until the month after house prices hit bottom in January 2009, with the decline almost solely driven by a multiple de-rate (from 3.8x NTA to 1.6x). RYM shares have declined even more severely this cycle, down 58% (raise adjusted) to date, with the majority of the decline again being driven by a multiple de-rate (from 2.5x NTA to 0.8x). The review of the prior evidence therefore suggests (i) RYM shares will not bottom until house prices bottom and (ii) house prices will not bottom until after the RBNZ hiking cycle ends (expected in May).
...but will likely not bottom until house prices bottom
The evidence is however unclear as to when after the RBNZ hiking cycle stops that house prices will start to rise again. Some housing affordability metrics suggests that if current mortgage rates remain unchanged, house prices could fall a further 25-30% from current levels. However, such a bear case scenario is unlikely, in our view, with softer economic data combined with pockets of global banking sector stress pointing to lower rates, and over the last month markets have changed from pricing in a 31% probability of a RBNZ rate hike in Aug-23 to a 25% probability of a rate cut, We estimate that interest rates need to fall c.100bps from here to limit house price falls to 10-15% (from current levels), with c.200bps supporting flat prices, while c.300bps is needed to support a return to growth. Our base case remains house prices fall 10-15% over the rest of 2023, before recovering from 2024.
Retain Overweight on view shares recover in 2024
Our base case suggests RYM shares are unlikely to outperform the broader market until 2024 (likely 2H) - but could do so strongly. Retain Overweight

[Shareguy]

Caught up with family friends who said they are wanting to sell their apartment and move into a retirement village. They had chosen a new Ryman complex under construction in Takapuna.

Only problem is only 67 units and 600 registered party's according to Ryman. Has been told the price will be over $5m.

He is now looking at other options in case they miss out.

[Basil]

People must be absolutely nuts considering that sort of price for a unit in Takapuna and being a very small village the overheads, (weekly fees,) will be very high as they can only be amortized over 67 units.
Beachfront living in Browns Bay at the Sands for a small fraction of that
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/north-shore-city/browns-bay/listing/4057554424
Wonder how many of those people who have expressed interest will try and proceed at that exorbitant price?
How many who remain interested will be able to sell their mansion to afford it?
I genuinely wonder if RYM's extreme price / low DMF business model is fit for purpose in a falling market?
Let's be honest here, they are the only ones in the sector who have let their debt problems run away on them which can only happen through gross mismanagement or insufficient sales to generate cash flow to keep on top of debt, or both.

[Shareguy]

People must be absolutely nuts considering that sort of price for a unit in Takapuna and being a very small village the overheads, (weekly fees,) will be very high as they can only be amortized over 67 units.
Beachfront living in Browns Bay at the Sands for a small fraction of that
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/north-shore-city/browns-bay/listing/4057554424
Wonder how many of those people who have expressed interest will try and proceed at that exorbitant price?
How many who remain interested will be able to sell their mansion to afford it?
I genuinely wonder if RYM's extreme price / low DMF business model is fit for purpose in a falling market?
Let's be honest here, they are the only ones in the sector who have let their debt problems run away on them which can only happen through gross mismanagement or insufficient sales to generate cash flow to keep on top of debt.

Yes but they will be selling their apartment which is worth more than that in Takapuna on the beach. Their are plenty of very rich people that will pay those prices and only limited supply. Which is why I think Oceania's Helier will be a great success.

Will be interesting to see as you have pointed out who will actually go ahead. One would of thought even in todays market out of 600 the odds are high will still be  a success.

I agree re Rymans debt they clearly had their heads in the sand. Once regarded as a bottom draw share, no longer a blue chip darling.

[Basil]

Surely that village is on the beachfront at that price so for $5m you get a north facing beachfront villa ?

Agree the Helier will be a great success for OCA....there's a LOT of old money in St Heliers but that's just one village and it surprises me how cheap the Sands apartments are selling for and that's beachfront.  Then there's the ten villages they are trying to sell...

[Shareguy]

Surely that village is on the beachfront at that price so for $5m you get a north facing beachfront villa ?

Agree the Helier will be a great success for OCA....there's a LOT of old money in St Heliers but that's just one village and it surprises me how cheap the Sands apartments are selling for and that's beachfront.  Then there's the ten villages they are trying to sell...

Not water front. On old fire station site so will have great sea views. I think it's also going to have views over lake Pupuke. Is the sands to cheap? A number who miss out on Ryman will look at this I guess.

[Shareguy]

Here's a link to it. Well back from the sea.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121806390/ryman-plans-thirteenth-auckland-retirement-village

[Basil]

I would think the price for north facing sea view 2 bedroom at the Sands in Browns Bay is very different to a non sea view one and the $1,050,000 is unlikely to have a sea view but who knows.

$5m seems a lot for that site but who knows, as you say, there's a lot of really wealthy people and Lake Pupuke is pretty special. Its good they're going to offer the full continuum of care there and it's a handy site to get quick access to all sorts of medical specialists with practices based around North shore Hospital.

This whole $5m thing makes me wonder what OCA are going to ask for their best north facing units at the Helier ? 
https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/location/the-helier  $6m ?  Must admit I could see myself enjoying retirement living at the Helier, taking my dog for a walk in the adjoining Glover park and looking out at the sea views.   

[Shareguy]

I would think the price for north facing sea view 2 bedroom at the Sands in Browns Bay is very different to a non sea view one and the $1,050,000 is unlikely to have a sea view but who knows.

$5m seems a lot for that site but who knows, as you say, there's a lot of really wealthy people and Lake Pupuke is pretty special. Its good they're going to offer the full continuum of care there and it's a handy site to get quick access to all sorts of medical specialists with practices based around North shore Hospital.

This family friend unfortunately is not in the best of health and has spend plenty of time at NS hospital. So yes the location is a big plus.

[Mos]

Caught up with family friends who said they are wanting to sell their apartment and move into a retirement village. They had chosen a new Ryman complex under construction in Takapuna.

Only problem is only 67 units and 600 registered party's according to Ryman. Has been told the price will be over $5m.

He is now looking at other options in case they miss out.

[Mos]

Takapuna is my neighbourhood. $5m just does not seem credible to me for a typical Ryman 2 bedroom apartment. They are not getting anywhere near that in nearby Devonport.

[Basil]

Takapuna is my neighbourhood. $5m just does not seem credible to me for a typical Ryman 2 bedroom apartment. They are not getting anywhere near that in nearby Devonport.

Agree 100%.
Devonport - Ryman units $1.9m with stunning views of the harbour and struggling to sell them.
$3.5m gets you a huge 195 sq met stunning penthouse https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/auckland/north-shore-city/takapuna/listing/4022927071
Ryman and their $5m units in Takapuna...tell them they're dreaming.
Just out of curiosity I went onto Trade Me and did a search under retirement villages, all of Auckland and $2m plus as the price point.
That returned only one listing. I've been to that village and seen those houses.  They are not typical retirement village units.  These are substantial homes, literally right on the waterfront and north facing.    234 sq meters !
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/waitakere-city/hobsonville/listing/4006017861

[Mos]

Agree 100%.
Devonport - Ryman units $1.9m with stunning views of the harbour and struggling to sell them.
$3.5m gets you a huge 195 sq met stunning penthouse https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/auckland/north-shore-city/takapuna/listing/4022927071
Ryman and their $5m units in Takapuna...tell them they're dreaming.
Just out of curiosity I went onto Trade Me and did a search under retirement villages, all of Auckland and $2m plus as the price point.
That returned only one listing. I've been to that village and seen those houses.  They are not typical retirement village units.  These are substantial homes, literally right on the waterfront and north facing.    234 sq meters !
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/waitakere-city/hobsonville/listing/4006017861

That is a very nice retirement villa and outlook.