Briscoe Group BGP

[Sideshow Bob]

So sales about the same as what they were 3 years ago and for most of that time, we've had inflation running at ~ 7% per annum, so, down approx. 20% in inflation adjusted terms.  Wow, that's a pretty substantial fall in real terms.  COBD always rising too e.g. minimum wage rising again to over $23 an hour from 1 April.

I think there's a growing realisation that if you want something that's really on sale you go to K Mart.  Growth company?  I don't think so.  Lot of pressure to come in the years ahead from K Mart and Costco expansion.  I think it really deserves to trade on a no growth PE of 8 times this year's earnings.  There's no growth here and no plausible plan to create any in the years ahead.   Rod an old wily, fat and content dog that's doing his best to maintain the current level of profit.  Very mature company too.

Further to this, the question also is how long will Rod be around for, and what will happen to his stake?

[Waltzing]

NO increase in DIV then.... its a sell and buy TRA...

[winner (n)]

Briscoes numbers will look exceptional when Warehouse confess as to how bad last 6 months have been.

[Basil]

Briscoes numbers will look exceptional when Warehouse confess as to how bad last 6 months have been.

Yes, not setting the bar very high there though mate...bit like asking Eliza McCartney to pole vault with the bar set at half a meter lol

[Mos]

Yes, not setting the bar very high there though mate...bit like asking Eliza McCartney to pole vault with the bar set at half a meter lol

Exactly, beating or matching Kmart a higher bar that will require some jumping.

[Waltzing]

Lots of competition for shoppers with all the stores out there and each needs an on line shop.

Cost of doing business today is higher than ever as FM has posted on the HLG thread.

Its not a Stagflation economy yet which explains the lastest retail numbers for january.

Local Bris shop suddenly has lines at the counter this week after people returned from holidays and seemed to need stuff....

When and if OCR drops 300 the stock SP could rise even on flat earnings to declining $$$$.

[Waltzing]

They seem to get the result published pretty fast yet there cap ex looks pretty big goin forward with new logistics..

looks pretty bold ... wonder how it funded...

still DIV has gone up... hmmm

maybe thats t make up for his KMD investment.

still its on the ++ side

[Ferg]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/441537

Sales for the 9 months are down -0.5% versus last year but when adjusted for the Labour weekend sales which falls into Q4 this year (and Q3 last year) there was +0.5% annual growth.

[winner (n)]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/441537

Sales for the 9 months are down -0.5% versus last year but when adjusted for the Labour weekend sales which falls into Q4 this year (and Q3 last year) there was +0.5% annual growth.

But could be looking at second half npat being 20% down 0n last year (not counting the depreciation adjustment)

Full year normalised npat guided $70m to $77m v $84m last year --- a month or so expected a 'strong result'

Could say a decent sized profit downgrade

[winner (n)]

Things must be tough in retail if Rod struggles

Midpoint of NPAT guidance say $73m ....... Sames FY21 profits.

But sales are ~$90m higher .......margins and costs under some pressure.

No doubt Rod will overcome

[Basil]

It's a game of who's the least bad retailer.  Unfortunately Briscoes doesn't have the luxury of a fast-growing Glassons brand in Australia like HLG does hence why they are outperforming and will likely continue to do so in my opinion   That said, Rod's a very smart operator and he will bounce back very well when the economy claws its way out of the toilet.  I see this as bottom of the cycle earnings for Briscoes.

[winner (n)]

This pretty good

Jarden analyst Guy Hooper noted that Briscoe has reported just four declines in annual net profit in the last 19 years.

Two of those years were during the GFC and some economists say the current recession is even worse than the GFC.

[lorraina]

On Sunday I went into Briscoes Salisbury Street Christchurch store.
I walked in and asked a young staff member where electric shavers were.
She not only took me over to where they were,but helped me select the right one for the wife to shave her legs.
I was in and out of the very busy store in minutes.
Excellent service.

[Basil]

This pretty good

Jarden analyst Guy Hooper noted that Briscoe has reported just four declines in annual net profit in the last 19 years.

Two of those years were during the GFC and some economists say the current recession is even worse than the GFC.

Great point.  Many retailers have been saying trading conditions this year have been worse than the GFC.  Hopefully at least a 50 bps (crossing my fingers for 75 bps) interest rate cut by RBNZ later this month will lead to some green shoots in 2025.

[winner (n)]

Briscoes chart interesting last 6 months ..somethings going on or just a bit over bought

Recent dip a bit like HLG, TRA ....punters wary of retailers all of a sudden

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