Briscoe Group BGP

[winner (n)]

Sales update not too bad

Q1 sales +2.3% but Q2 sales -2.0%

Rod hanging in their but pissed off with the thugs

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BGP/415994/399883.pdf

[Waltzing]

yes but its far better than expected and before the Dairy down grade that has cut the P&L of that sector...

Flat is better than down 10 percent..

time to get everything in order for 2025.. the new dawn or one hopes so.. how many more shoes to drop..

[Waltzing]

Some new numbers out and increased DIV...

hes been duking it out!!!

and he thinks he WON!!!!  well what do you think? increased DIV and some new products coming...

[Basil]

I thought it was a pretty resilient result.  K Mart expanding a lot in N.Z. though as are Costco so I see the group as having very limited growth prospects and deserves a PE commensurate with that, say 8-9, maybe 10 at a pinch.  Currently trades on 13 times average analyst estimate for FY25 and FY26.  Hmmm
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BRISCOE-GROUP-LIMITED-6495562/finances/

Interesting he mentioned shipping costs were down 50-60%.

[Waltzing]

" shipping costs were down 50-60%."

 Gosh very interesting ....

[Waltzing]

Steady as she goes then... since the whole NZ looks pretty much slow growth 10 p/e could be the best one can hope for...

This stock needs OCR to drop in the next few years for its price to remain up and here and slowly , very slowly increase. LIke VERY....

TRA looks like the winner at the moment..

[Basil]

No disrespect to the retail king, he's a legend but I can't see the point in owning a company with very little if any growth prospects on a forward PE of 13.   We have the 10 year Govt stock rate at 5%.  I use Ben Graham's yardstick of 8.5 PE for a no growth company but that's with a 10 year of 4%.  Where it is now a no growth company should be on a PE of 7.5-8 in my playbook.

[Waltzing]

They do have some nice new products coming though and Dyson moved operation to Singapore which means product maybe does not come from europe.

Tink it will be 3 to5 years before we see this one heading up again ... if they keep market share... still solid company to own and its not second hand stuff..

[Waltzing]

The big flat line... local store in central  WAKATOO country town a bit empty... but the WakaToo towns always empties out to the costal regions at this time of year...

[Left Field]

Flat sales and declining profits?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425646

• Record full-year (52 weeks) Group sales $792.0 million, beating last year by +0.78%
• Full year Homeware sales growth, also ahead of last year, by+0.54%
• Full year Sporting goods sales growth, +1.17% improvement on last year
• Full year Online sales as mix of total Group sales, 18.72%
• Full Year gross profit margin to be at least 42.30%
• Closing inventories to be at least $10 million below last year
• Expected full-year net profit after tax (NPAT) to be in excess of $83 million which will represent at least 94% of last year's record NPAT

Don't hold so will leave it to others to comment.

[Basil]

Pretty resilient. Noted that sales have held up well in nominal terms but in inflation adjusted terms are down several percent.  Not a bad result considering cost of living pressures. Don't hold.

[winner (n)]

4.2 stock turns a year pretty good

[lorraina]

Yes very good stock turns,as their stores always appear very well stocked..
I was at Eastgate Mall last week.Some rough guesses on stock turns.
Went into Number 1 shoes..Started adding up how much stock they held and think they would be lucky to achieve 1 stock turn a year.An awful amount of stock.
 Lincraft,and Bed Bath and Beyond..Between 1 and 1.5 stocks turns.
The Warehouse between 2.5 and 3.5.

[winner (n)]

Briscoes Group sales trend below

Interesting nearly back to pre-covid trend .....the ups and downs of covid disruptions nearly gone. Could suggest steady sales growth from here

You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

So sales about the same as what they were 3 years ago and for most of that time, we've had inflation running at ~ 7% per annum, so, down approx. 20% in inflation adjusted terms.  Wow, that's a pretty substantial fall in real terms.  COBD always rising too e.g. minimum wage rising again to over $23 an hour from 1 April.

I think there's a growing realisation that if you want something that's really on sale you go to K Mart.  Growth company?  I don't think so.  Lot of pressure to come in the years ahead from K Mart and Costco expansion.  I think it really deserves to trade on a no growth PE of 8 times this year's earnings.  There's no growth here and no plausible plan to create any in the years ahead, a very mature company.  Rod an old, wily campaigner that's doing his best to maintain the current level of profit is how I see it.  How did he get on in the end with his helicopter flight path consents in Herne Bay, anyone know?