HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Basil]

I keep hearing that HLG is a cyclical stock but the likes of OCA are not cyclical

Interesting chart HLG v OCA last 5 years. Seems that HLG has done 'better' in recent times

Conclusion - if HLG is seen as a cyclical dog of a stock then OCA is even more of a cyclical dog of a stock

Both seen (in different quarters) as cheap so if deciding between the the two it probably is better bet to go with HLG with its beta of 0.93 v OCA beta of 0.73 ...as well on fundamentals you'd have to say HLG is the better bet as well.

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Cool chart but doesn't tell the whole picture because it doesn't include dividends and HLG pays HUGE dividends.  When I recall you and I first bought in back in August 2016 at about $2.75 it was on a 15% gross yield.  Since then it's about doubled and all that yield every year has been phenomenal.
By comparison OCA listed 9 months after that, has paid about a 5% unimputed yield and the share price has gone backwards, really badly for those who subscribed to the cash issue and DRIP.

Since FY16 Glassons Au sales have grown from $41m to circa $200m this year.
Calling a company with that phenomenal growth over the years with its Australian sales a cyclical is laughable.

[winner (n)]

Yep, forgot about those huge HLG divies over the years

They say markets are forward looking ..... that chart of HLG v OCA is saying future prospects of HLG far better than OCA

[BlackPeter]

I keep hearing that HLG is a cyclical stock but the likes of OCA are not cyclical

Interesting chart HLG v OCA last 5 years. Seems that HLG has done 'better' in recent times

Conclusion - if HLG is seen as a cyclical dog of a stock then OCA is even more of a cyclical dog of a stock

Both seen (in different quarters) as cheap so if deciding between the the two it probably is better bet to go with HLG with its beta of 0.93 v OCA beta of 0.73 ...as well on fundamentals you'd have to say HLG is the better bet as well.

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Just wondering - who is telling you that property stocks (and OCA is one of them) are not cyclical - or did you just make that bit up?

Of course, they are .... real estate is cyclical and REITS are moving with the cycle, as they should.

[BlackPeter]

...
Calling a company with that phenomenal growth over the years with its Australian sales a cyclical is laughable.

It appears you don't understand the meaning of "cyclical". Maybe you should just look it up.

[winner (n)]

In a month or so time when result is announced they will also say -

"Group sales for the first seven weeks of the second half of year are X% ahead of the same period last year."

I reckon X% will be 11.2% (based on what some OZ retailers have said, retail organisation feedback, field visitsand Westpac commentary as inputs into my HLG 'seasonality' model) .....the sales momentum continues

And the market will say heck that's good and I can still get a big divie and share price will go up 

[Waltzing]

"I reckon X% will be 11.2% "

whow whow wow...  W OOO W

this share price usually goes .... where ever it likes...

hope down..... then up... but is the market stupid?

 

[Basil]

It appears you don't understand the meaning of "cyclical". Maybe you should just look it up.

You can't or don't want to understand that there are two different parts to the business.  N.Z. which is a mature cyclical operation and Glassons Au which is a growth company that's grown every year for the last 8 years.  There's none so blind as those that will not see. 

Hey Winner me ol mate, do you want to post a chart of the last 6 months.  Looks pretty interesting to me.

[winner (n)]

You can't or don't want to understand that there are two different parts to the business.  N.Z. which is a mature cyclical operation and Glassons Au which is a growth company that's grown every year for the last 8 years.  There's none so blind as those that will not see. 

Hey Winner me ol mate, do you want to post a chart of the last 6 months.  Looks pretty interesting to me.

Like like a reasonable uptrend ....you know, higher lows etc etc

[Waltzing]

Retail collapse soon?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-shock-900fortnight-rise-forecast-for-many-aucklanders-westpac/TRTZGH7KEFEAXKHADVDBIBHIIY/

[winner (n)]

Retail collapse soon?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-shock-900fortnight-rise-forecast-for-many-aucklanders-westpac/TRTZGH7KEFEAXKHADVDBIBHIIY/

re sensationalism ... shame on you for even reading, let alone posting a link 

Remind you waltz ... in this century $ retail sales on an annual basis have never declined

[Waltzing]

"re sensationalism ... shame on you"

its the NZ Herald!!!

isnt one supposed to support local content...

What time line are we to think about here..?

[Whome]

It appears you don't understand the meaning of "cyclical". Maybe you should just look it up.

I think we all understand what cyclical means where a stock follows the trend of the macroeconomy it operates in ie in HLG's case, the whole retail sector.

However what has been identified by ST guru posters is a division of HLG ie Glassons AU, that has successfully implemented a clear growth strategy against the general trend at a time when there is cause for pessimism about recession within the larger retail sector.

As both Basil and Winner have pointed out and have presented some forecasts of their own (not advice) that Glassons AU have nailed a marketing strategy for clothing for the younger demographic that is more attractive to their target market than their competitors, and compounded that strategy with a carefully crafted expansion program of 3 new stores pa into a potential Oz market that is x6 larger than NZ. The company is run skilfully by people with a 20% s/h'ing skin in the game, and all of that achieved with NO debt. That is called growth and has little to do with the state of the macroeconomy however cyclical it may be.

Add to that a gross divi of 10%, the possibility of 80% imputation credits, possible inclusion in NZX50 ... and I too see a probable lift in HLG share price and that is why a decent portion of my holdings are with HLG.

We have to acknowledge cyclical trends, but blindly following them doesn't cut it for me -it's like always looking backwards. I may as well just put my funds in an ETF and walk away - how boring. I prefer to look 6 months ahead, use FA continuously, TA to keep me grounded, and carefully take into consideration the opinions (not advice) of those who can analyse financial data far better than I can, and for that I am appreciative of the ST contributors.

[Fiordland Moose]

V well expressed perspectives Whome.

There's nothing stopping a cyclical business from also being a growth business - they aren't mutually exclusive. Can a business sensitive to ups and downs of the economic cycle continue to grow earnings through cycle by executing on a well developed growth plan - of course. A bit of a storm in the teacup over the use of the word cyclical.

[BlackPeter]

V well expressed perspectives Whome.

There's nothing stopping a cyclical business from also being a growth business - they aren't mutually exclusive. Can a business sensitive to ups and downs of the economic cycle continue to grow earnings through cycle by executing on a well developed growth plan - of course. A bit of a storm in the teacup over the use of the word cyclical.

Quite funny discussion. Anybody bothered to look at the SP development of HLG compared to the NZX50?

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NZX50 lost over the last 2 years 4%.
HLG lost over the last 2 years 26%;

Clearly - there is a term for people who love to suffer, but I must admit, I prefer other joys in life, so maybe I better leave this discussion with all the amazing lectures for the people who do.

[Waltzing]

 
HLG is a very bumpy  chart...technical term...