HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[winner (n)]

Mr Gordon had a way of valuing stocks in his Dividend Discount Model

HLG divie 65 cents (gross). Say my expected return is 8% pa

At a share price of $10 that implies growth in dividends will be 1.5% pa

I can hear the laughter from Basil in Auckland down here

[Basil]

I don't think you drank enough cider yesterday Basil to cloud your usual perspicacity so I think your analysis holds a great deal of merit.
Following our discussion yesterday and today's Forbar report I couldn't hold back. I put in an order pre-opening and have increased my HLG holding by a further 10%.

I'm looking forward to the first class flights but I think I'll move up when we get to $20. In 8 years time, I might be on a Zimmer frame and unable to walk to the plane!

Nice one Pierre. It was a real pleasure meeting you, Ferg, Evan,Gavin and others and our discussion on the benefits of a more concentrated portfolio is definitly food for more thought. A most enjoyable afternoon.

[Dolcile]

Mr Gordon had a way of valuing stocks in his Dividend Discount Model

HLG divie 65 cents (gross). Say my expected return is 8% pa

At a share price of $10 that implies growth in dividends will be 1.5% pa

I can hear the laughter from Basil in Auckland down here

I suspect we are going to be very pleasantly surprised (or not surprised  ) by the dividend this year.

[Basil]

It seems very conservative to me.  Forbar are forecasting a 3 year CAGR of 14% yet they are only valuing it at 14.88xFY26 earnings.

Their EPS of 84 cents for FY26, (I'm at 90 cps) is based on a very pessimistic tax rate of 32%, similar to last year which included a significant prior period adjustment for tax costing a headwind of 3 cps on earnings, cost this year which doesn't seem likely to me if they're right will be 3.4 cps.  The other difference is I'm slightly more optimistic about 2H performance than they are, worth 2.6 cps.

Looks like a very brief update to their DCF model.  Not much thought gone into how profit grew 32% on sales increasing 15%.  Don't think they've got a good grip yet on the economies of scale subject that's been discussed above.  Nevertheless its good to have their analysis as I remember the days when I was alone in the wilderness without any analyst coverage and it was a pretty lonely experience, albeit, very rewarding.

Left Field on Today at 12:28 PM
Hey Basil, congratulations on your possibly alcohol fuelled HLG epiphany, however, for those of us who couldn't attend, were any other meaningful stocks discussed?

Good discussions amoungst the group about Seeka, Skellerup, Turners, Argosy, Kiwi Property, MCK, Tower, Genesis and many others.

[Scooter]

Good discussions amoungst the group about Seeka, Skellerup, Turners, Argosy, Kiwi Property, MCK, Tower, Genesis and many others. 

Are you getting closer to coming over to seeka and seeing the merits of the business and slowly getting closer to nzx50 inclusion? 

[Basil]

LOL No mate, Agri stocks are not my thing and I'm capital constrained, just like everyone else is and can't be everywhere.    I've recently added moderate size positions in Skellerup and ASR, and added more HLG last Friday.

[Scooter]

LOL No mate, Agri stocks are not my thing and I'm capital constrained, just like everyone else is and can't be everywhere.    I've recently added moderate size positions in Skellerup and ASR, and added more HLG last Friday.

Thought I'd ask  .  I remember yourve said in the past agri stocks are not your thing. Just wondering if you had changed your mind.

[Pierre]

A new ATH of $10.32 for HLG today as the SP continues to head north. There's still a way to go before it hits Basil's $30 forecast, but at least it's tracking in the right direction.
Onward and upward!

[Basil]

Good to see a new ATH.  Well overdue.  For those who think they've missed the boat here nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion.  HLG was $10.20 in early November 2025 ~ 4 months ago and has been in a consolidation phase since then after going ex divvy in early December.  From, a TA point of view, making a new high was very important here and the chart suggests its onward and upward from here...but as the old Mainland Cheese advertisement suggests, good things take time...     

[alkebab]

Good to see a new ATH.  Well overdue.  For those who think they've missed the boat here nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion.  HLG was $10.20 in early November 2025 ~ 4 months ago and has been in a consolidation phase since then after going ex divvy in early December.  From, a TA point of view, making a new high was very important here and the chart suggests its onward and upward from here...but as the old Mainland Cheese advertisement suggests, good things take time...     

Could also argue that it was a triple top in mid-Feb, but the tailwinds were too strong (Aussie retail data you folks mentioned earlier with UNI etc, lower NZD) for it not to break upwards lol...

I think it might sit here for a while pending further details, dividends etc that will be announced at the end of the month.

[Basil]

I'm happy for it to sit here for a while longer.  Good opportunity to buy even more.

[winner (n)]

A new ATH of $10.32 for HLG today as the SP continues to head north....on a bad day for the market overall

A new phenomenon ...the HQ Effect

Mudt have been many punters/diners eavesdropping

[Pierre]

I think it might sit here for a while pending further details, dividends etc that will be announced at the end of the month.

The dividend announcement definitely could be the catalyst for the next upward movement in the SP.

Last year's 1H divvy was 24.5cps and the final was 30.5, making a total of 55.0c for the year.

However, in today's update Forbar estimated a total of 71.5cps in 2026. How might that be split? Say, 32.0 and 39.5? Whichever way it goes a 30% increase, if it eventuates, is sure to generate more SP action.

[alkebab]

That sell chart is looking more barren than TRA when it went on a run from $7 to $8+. Jeez.

[Pierre]

Current SP is $10.49.
If you want more than 21 shares the next offer is $11.00!
Update:
There is a bargain available though. There is one only share on offer at $10.99. You'll need to be quick!