TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[Left Field]

I wonder what happens to the car market with fuel at $4/L?

A timely upgrade for worried holders..

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/469510

Based on current trading conditions, Turners now expects net profit before tax (NPBT) before goodwill adjustments to be around $63 million, an increase to previous guidance of "around $60 million" and approaching the previously stated profit target of $65m in FY28.
 

[lorraina]

Another very positive trading update.

[Dolcile]

Yep and I also like that they will be providing 5 year targets later in the month!

[Waltzing]

just remember petrol might run out in 5 or 6 weeks...

there could be a complete stop to car buying that is petrol shortly and electric sales go through the roof ....

until oil flows again..

inflation is here to stay says someone today on CNBC...

And on CNBC not more than 5 minutes ago Powel is staying until the law suite against him is dropped and everyone on the interview started laughing...

In other words Powel looks like he holds the whip...

When will the break through 70M.. 10 dollar stock? only a matter of when?

[Basil]

Very strong update

[mike2023]

just remember petrol might run out in 5 or 6 weeks...

there could be a complete stop to car buying that is petrol shortly and electric sales go through the roof ....

until oil flows again..

inflation is here to stay says someone today on CNBC...

And on CNBC not more than 5 minutes ago Powel is staying until the law suite against him is dropped and everyone on the interview started laughing...

In other words Powel looks like he holds the whip...

When will the break through 70M.. 10 dollar stock? only a matter of when?

Petrol isn't running out, there are alternative sources,  it just takes time and obviously money,  the USA has increase its crude stock in the last week and have yet to open up their own supply.

[winner (n)]

So F26 PBT going to be about $63m and next week they are going to reveal its earnings target for the next five-year period.

Lets gues the targets eh

Marketscreener has F26 at $61m and F27 at $70m and F28 at $77m

If Todd comes out with anything less it could be deemed to be a DOWNGRADE

So lets run with -

F27  $72m
f28  $80M
F29  $88m
F30  $98m
F31  $107m

Seems pretty reasonable to me

I'll leave it up to Basil to come up with a likely share price and dividend in @031

[Basil]

Looks all good and makes good sense to me Winner. Will have a look at prospective FY30 and FY31 gross yields when I'm back in the office.

[Basil]

Pretty cool how they very nearly made their FY28 target of $65m two years early.  Might even make a bit more than $63m. I hear EV's and PHEV's are flying out the door at present.

[Waltzing]

"petrol runs out"  ... green peace might set up a blockage of Tankers dropping off supplies...

You dont know what they are planning... looks like they sized up those windows perfectly... wonder what they did with the van..

could be a huge buying oppo on TRA.

[HAWKDOG]

Cherokee? ya nah. 

At $4/l - industry slows down  Mining/forestry/farming are diesel intensive
https://www.thepress.co.nz/business/360968541/41-job-cuts-loom-west-coast-sand-mine-proposes-pause-operation

NZ gets 90% of its fuel from Asia - Asia gets most of its oil from the middle east.

major spikes in oil price are generally followed by a recession.

the sale of EV's will increase but I would speculate the overall total number of vehicles sold declines

100% we see at least one interest rate rise this year.

just my thoughts.  I am out of TRA, nice run from the mid 3's - will circle back when the dust settles.

[HAWKDOG]

Just to clarify - I am out of TRA as part of my move to increase my cash balance - not a knock on TRA. 

[Pierre]

New Zealanders will always need cars - even if they don't use them as much as they used to.
With higher fuel prices they may choose to change to cheaper, smaller models or even EVs.
When fuel prices reduce, as ultimately they will, they will revert to the cars they actually want.
Whatever happens, TRA is well positioned to help them - and its shareholders.

[Basil]

Well said Pierre. I note Turners is about to post it's sixth sucessive record profit, irrespective of Covid, repeated lockdowns and the longest and deepest recession since the GFC

An incredible track record of dealing with adversity.

[winner (n)]

and if it hadn't been for a bit of blip in FY20 this will be 11 years of growth

Great chart

Seem to have quadrupled Operating Profit since 2015

*You cannot view this attachment.