TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[Basil]

I think there's a tendency from some junior analysts to put too much weight on historical multiples.

Objectively a forward PE of just over 16 is very good value for a company with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 12% especially given the prevailing economic environment.

I think they're well positioned to continue delivering record annual profits and grow EPS strongly in the years ahead. I'm reluctant to put a 1 year price target on TRA because it's a fact that it's had a strong run in the last two and a half years but I am happy to hold long term.

Very few companies on the NZX are as well managed as TRA.

Thought for the day. Isn't selling in an uptrend even dumber than buying in a downtrend ? Have a look at the chart, it's a beautiful looking uptrend.

[winner (n)]

Ha ha ---- UNDERPERFORM on Turners the day they put out a long rave on Arborgen with an amazing story and a price target of 20 cents

Probably thought they need to get punters to sell Turners to BUY this new wonderful opportunity Arborgen

Aren't I cynical

[winner (n)]

Maybe the Forbar analyst liked my chart

To a certain extent the analyst is right .... he's not that biased imho

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[Basil]

I beg to differ, with Turners it's all about EPS growth and price to book is far less relevant. (Has some relevance with their finance book).

[Waltzing]

when has FOBAR been accurate about anything...

Recently a well known Olympic sculler worked for them after retiring from an unsuccessful Tokyo bid to get selected..  he selected as his coach a very good sowing machine operator.. upholstery expert.. you have to calculate angle to make cut and that stuff.. should have been ok right to select that person as a coach? but sculling requires a knowledge of two very famous mathematicians and you have to know how to extract data from devices and track your acceleration models. Now the French man who did Black magic did not know how to do this and we did not tell him.. even after a two hour meeting when we got back from sweden and Black magic came to race here.. no money in it for us... Black magic did not get the data they needed and nor did the FOBAR sculling champion...

Moral of the story FOBAR does not always hire people who know what they are doing.. watch out Tauranga...
 
Does the NZ public like TINA... or is there TINA...Trees versus TINA... place your bets

[BlackPeter]

I think there's a tendency from some junior analysts to put too much weight on historical multiples.

Objectively a forward PE of just over 16 is very good value for a company with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 12% especially given the prevailing economic environment.

I think they're well positioned to continue delivering record annual profits and grow EPS strongly in the years ahead. I'm reluctant to put a 1 year price target on TRA because it's a fact that it's had a strong run in the last two and a half years but I am happy to hold long term.

Very few companies on the NZX are as well managed as TRA.

Thought for the day. Isn't selling in an uptrend even dumber than buying in a downtrend ? Have a look at the chart, it's a beautiful looking uptrend.

Not sure it has anything to do with "junior". Predicting future share prices (and get it right) is about as likely as predicting the weather a year ahead - and get it right. Forecasts compared to outcomes end up as white noise. If there would be anybody who could do that, they would by now own the world instead of asking other people to pay them for their predictions.

Looking at the TA - you are right, its an uptrend ... and selling in an uptrend might not be the best strategy to increase your funds ....
Looking into PE and growthrate - according to my data they are now sensible priced (but not cheap anymore).
Looking into management and business case ... it looks like they still could have a lot of runway (and watching these new Christchurch outlets grow). Obviously - as long as the EPS keeps growing, a higher PE is ok ...

Looking into the FOBar analysis ... as indicated, none of the analyst forecasts have more than entertainmnent value, but no doubt he is describing something which may or may not happen.

Anyway - not selling yet.

[Basil]

I agree that picking prices 1 year from now is difficult but with proper analysis I belive stock picking with a 3-5 year timeframe is much easier and I am confident TRA will be priced considerably north of the current share price in say 2030.

The current share price  is very good value for a great GARP stock but not the screaming bargain it once was.
I think it's a great hold for the long run  years ahead but brokerage houses get no brokerage from people that hold long term eh :

[winner (n)]

I beg to differ, with Turners it's all about EPS growth and price to book is far less relevant. (Has some relevance with their finance book).

A bit of algebra shows that P/E and P/B are inextricably intertwined and its little surprise that as shown on my chart they follow each other

[winner (n)]

Impressive numbers

5 Year CAGR
Sales 4.4% pa
NPAT 13.1% pa
EPS 12.2% pa
Book Value 5.2%
BV per share 4.3% pa
Dividend 8.7% pa

[SCOTTY]

Obviously the FB guy didn't hear Todd's RNZ Morning Report interview on 29th January 😂😂😂😂

[Waltzing]

what would a maths guy at FOBAR know about the average person buying a second hand car...

what would any of those people know about NZ society demographic where children dont go to private schools...

what would they know about immigrants arriving from other country's ....

when you get to the millions of people knowing whats going on in town after little town and mid sized cities cant be track by one person in a cubicle...

but someone at TRA does know there market and how to market to it....

They found ...

TINA..

and Created TINA...

its simple TINA and how many second car dealers are there again?? how can you possible track that many little car shops...

anyone whatch the english car boys on sky...its a wheeler dealer car show... one car repair and trade at a time...

Now thats life at the curb side...and the car shop floor...

Ever been inside the bigger car dealer operations ?  they are worlds within worlds and the owners like winger subaru made lots of money....not to mention the prestige dealers..

[Waltzing]

now you may say your not interested in driving anywhere else in the world...

but your may need to visit your dutch friend that moved to new zealand in 1983 and bought two farms and then sold them in 2019 and went to live in france in a cheap house with no modern wiring...

yes this post is about cars ...

but just driving a car in france... and you just happen to like driving in countries with a car you own and dont hire (who does this... madness)

is the second hand car in fact more than a heap of old junk on wheels...

well maybe....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvK0ZP9vTLw

[Basil]

Turners are having an investor day on 24 March which is for institutions, analysts, brokers and professional investors.    Not sure if they've had one of these investor days before ?  Great that they're making a strong effort to communicate their growth strategy clearly.   Wish HLG would follow suit. Hopefully some of the analysts get the message clearly.  I will try and make space in my diary to attend.
https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx?id=ytM4alvk10mKPWgKWICWrCoqTvzBBpxCso47sIUUDOxUOVY2R1M3NTMyWlVTNUFCWktJWElLNVZPVSQlQCN0PWcu&route=shorturl

[winner (n)]

Turners are having an investor day on 24 March which is for institutions, analysts, brokers and professional investors.    Not sure if they've had one of these investor days before ?  Great that they're making a strong effort to communicate their growth strategy clearly.   Wish HLG would follow suit. Hopefully some of the analysts get the message clearly.  I will try and make space in my diary to attend.
https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx?id=ytM4alvk10mKPWgKWICWrCoqTvzBBpxCso47sIUUDOxUOVY2R1M3NTMyWlVTNUFCWktJWElLNVZPVSQlQCN0PWcu&route=shorturl

You a definite starter for this .....professional investor with a huge following meets the criteria


[/quote]

[Basil]

Topped up with a few more this morning.  I think its a poor call by Forbar and this is one of the premier growth stories of this decade with a long runway for growth stretching well into next decade.  One of the very best value GARP stocks on the NZX in my opinion.  12% EPS CAGR with all the incredible challenges of the last 5 years is truly extraordinary.  I think the analysts will be very impressed with the growth outlook Turners will clearly articulate at their investor day on 24 March and I also think Turners will beat consensus FY26 market expectations.