StockTalk

There is execution risk and the investment profile is certainly more risky, but it's strongly mitigated by very long term contracts at both CDC and Longroad.

I feel a lot more comfortable knowing how much of Jason's Bs own money is invested. I'll be watching his disclosures carefully.

A bit to unpack in that update. Aggressive plan. Points that stood out to me...
- CDC (49.7% owned) EBITDAF forecast to increase from $A393m in FY26 to $A1b+ by FY28 and then $A2b based on current contracted demand when 1GW of capacity fully deployed. Current pipeline taking CDC to 2.9 GW suggests EBITDAF could grow to $A5.8b when current pipeline built out and operational. Wow and gulp!
- Longroad (42.5% owned) Opco EBITDAF forecast to increase from $US367m in FY26 to $US1b+ by FY29. Plus management commentary in the Q&A's on the new idea to use their energy builds to supply their own/partners data centres "We make $70,000 of EBITDA per megawatt roughly from a Long Road Energy project. That's pretty much what our averages say. You would be making more like $1 million of EBITDA on a data center if you added that to it. So, pretty interesting kind of step up in the NPV that's potentially available to Long Road or its partners. That's how we're thinking about it."
- Guidance proportionate capex of $NZ 3.8b to $4.4b in FY27 alone. Not sitting on their hands!
- Pretty much every asset they own part from CDC, Longroad, Gurin Project Vanda could be up for sale to fund energy & data centre growth and create a more focused narrative for capital markets. Good bye Wellington Airport, Contact, RHCNZ, and other smaller businesses that don't fit the narrative and/or aren't scalable to say $1b+ EBITDA in pretty short order?

I don't think we have ever seen something this ambitious from a NZ listed company. Will be an interesting and quite possibly very rewarding white knuckle ride over the next 5-10 years. Massive value creation or risky overreach? Personally, will continue to hold and buckle up for the ride.

 

Close at $19.69 today

Always a bad sign when a stock closes at its low for the day .....and a 52 week low as well

I reckon another $1.00/$1.50 to go on this downward journey

Quote from: Left Field on May 26, 2026, 02:18 PMIFT's SP is up over 40% so far this calendar year..... so yes some profit taking.

Also if I recall correctly, the last big announcement re CDC hinted at another big contract by 26 May and there may be short term disappointment re that not being announced.....yet.

For long term holders, no worries. The FY27 projected 22% revenue increase looks good and likely understated.

Reading through the words of Jason he hinted strongly that the entire 1.6GW pipeline will be contracted and we'll soon be hearing about further acceleration or extending the pipeline for growth delivered early next decade.

I think some concerns of the market are a bit spooked by the scale of capex.

Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 26, 2026, 01:39 PMYeah, bit strange that SP is down $1 on what looks like a very good set of results. Maybe a bit of profit taking initially but I must be missing something. Or could be a buying opportunity perhaps?

IFT's SP is up over 40% so far this calendar year..... so yes some profit taking.

Also if I recall correctly, the last big announcement re CDC hinted at another big contract by 26 May and there may be short term disappointment re that not being announced.....yet.

For long term holders, no worries. The FY27 projected 22% revenue increase looks good and likely understated.

Dear Shareholders,

Blackpearl Group (NZX/ASX:BPG) advises that it will host an investor webinar at 12.30pm NZST (10.30am AEST) on Thursday, 28 May 2026, following the release of its FY26 full year results.

Chief Executive Officer Nick Lissette, Interim Chief Financial Officer Karen Cargill, and Chief Technology Officer Sam Daish will provide a presentation to discuss the Company's full year performance and key developments, followed by a live Q&A session.

Register here: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_xJd4nTtrTPiMXOdvZB6u2A

If you'd like to submit questions in advance, please email simon@nwrcommunications.com.au, or you can ask questions live during the webinar using the Zoom Q&A function.

We look forward to having you join us.

Kind regards,

The Team at Blackpearl Group

Quote from: HAWKDOG on May 26, 2026, 10:18 AMlol nope

Yeah, bit strange that SP is down $1 on what looks like a very good set of results. Maybe a bit of profit taking initially but I must be missing something. Or could be a buying opportunity perhaps?

Quote from: Greekwatchdog on May 26, 2026, 11:47 AMI guess the unexpected news they received midway thru the Cap Raise with the opening of the LCD is the main reason for oversubscription.

Not a bad reason for those who were invested when offer opened. Investors trying to get as much as they can. Would they have if the news of LCD Draft had not come thru?

Yes, the great news in the middle of the cap raise would have made certain that it would be way oversubscribed. PEB couldn't have foreseen that. And I guess, whatever amount retail investors do get, they stand to make a 60% gain. Can't complain I guess

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/473287
All going very well ,Blue Endeavour on target ,the good profits are just  bonuses en route to 2027 when significant harvest increases will see more significant earnings growth .

Quote from: lorraina on May 26, 2026, 11:39 AMYou would think that with their history of capital raises they would get it right.?

I guess the unexpected news they received midway thru the Cap Raise with the opening of the LCD is the main reason for oversubscription.

Not a bad reason for those who were invested when offer opened. Investors trying to get as much as they can. Would they have if the news of LCD Draft had not come thru?