StockTalk

Thanks Entrep.  I feel like HLG has only just achieved critical mass in Australia and its a very young brand there.  Looking ahead, they only have 40 stores for 27 million people there whereas Glassons has 35 stores here for 5.3m people so there's a massive runway for growth stretching out more than 20 years in Australia.

With additional scale will come more economies of scale and distribution efficiencies and their new roboticized warehouse should be in full swing now which is double the size at 7,000 sqm than their previous three warehouses combined which were 3500 sqm.  That gives a huge clue as to their future growth ambitions.

I think HLG has a very exciting future ahead of it and the shares are only trading on about 10.5 times my estimate of FY27 EPS (approx $1.12).  The fundamentals are cheaper than when I purchased a no growth company ten years ago on a PE of 11 !...but it now has a 10 year EPS CAGR of 15% so the current forward metrics scream "cheep" louder than a whole aviary full of budgies !

Honestly, if I was a major shareholder I would be talking to my lawyers about legal action against the directors.  Breech of fiduciary duty and negligence would be two of the possible legal avenues I'd be talking to them about.  I presume they'd have insurance so you'd be going after the insurance company as the source of funds here.

Full props to @Basil, really nailed this one!!

Thanks Ferg, I appreciate you clarifying your thinking.  Possibly worth noting that in the half year to 1 February 2026 the effective tax rate was just under 30%, more or less as I expected, 29.65% a blend of N.Z and Au tax rates.

No doubt we'll get to have a good look under the hood at this again in a months time with the full result released but $1.00 EPS would not surprise me.

I suspect we will be left wondering if this was ever true on 2 March
"The Board advises shareholders that it is in active negotiations with an overseas party regarding a potential major investment in PharmaZen.

These negotiations are at a critical stage and as a result the Board has placed a trading halt on PharmaZen shares until the negotiations are concluded.

The Board will keep shareholders informed as this matter develops further."

When on 30 March the receivers walk in

Thanks Minimoke...thats the indication I got from AI too.

Quote from: Herbert240 on Aug 28, 2026, 11:26 AMHave been trying to find out how PAZ shareholders stand. AI has painted a bleak picture. Does anyone know when this info will become known?

It appears all assets have now been sold to another entity.
PAZ debt will be paid off and I suspect $0.00 will be left for shareholders.

I picked up the average tax $$$ as a % of NPBT for the last 2 years.  2025 was 32.4%, 2024 was 33.8%, although I see 2024 was inflated by the removal of depreciation on buildings.....so I could be a touch high.  Maybe 30-31% after correcting for the depreciation deductibility adjustment in 2024.

Reworked:

Say NPAT is $58m* that is EPS of around 97c.  Last year was 66c.

*using $83.5m NPBT less 30.5% tax

Have been trying to find out how PAZ shareholders stand. AI has painted a bleak picture. Does anyone know when this info will become known?

Meanwhile the other major New Zealand milk and dairy companies are...making pay.

Fonterra lifted its full-year FY26 earnings forecast to 60–70 cents per share with operating profits of $1.8 billion and Westland a record pre-tax profit of $58m driven by high-margin exports like lactoferrin.

Synlait pivoting its milk processing into basic Whole Milk Powder due to "operational bottlenecks" (aka their own stupidity) right when global prices for WMP crashed, locked in significant margins losses while everyone else capitalized on high-margin products like lactoferrin that are in peak demand.   

Any company with an announcement containing the phrase, "recovery roadmap" is a massive warning, like quills on a porcupine.  Don't touch!