SML - Synlait

[SemiStrongForm]

I'd like this whole saga to be over so I can stop following it.

Disc. not holding.

[Minimoke]

You never left, figuratively speaking.

Keeping quiet is not leaving.

I've nothing to say. Just checking in to help assure you I am here.

[Breezy]

I'd like this whole saga to be over so I can stop following it.

Disc. not holding.

It will be a long wait till it turns and flourishes again but it will happen.

[SemiStrongForm]

I've nothing to say. Just checking in to help assure you I am here.

I do really think it was some long winded way of saying he missed you!

[Minimoke]

It will be a long wait till it turns and flourishes again but it will happen.

I have no doubt it will happen. But its what it will look like that will be interesting.

I reckon the only thing of value worth keeping is Dunsandel Infant Formula. Now who ends up owning that is the $60,000 question. (They have SAMR and BCorp accreditation that wil assure value here!)

They obviously want to see the back of Dairyworks. (Talbot has already gone).

Packing liquid milk for house brands "Pams" cant be profitable - so i reckon that will go.

Pokeno is obviously about to be put on the blocks.

30 MT of Lactoferrin - that one will go.

UHT cream - really. Who can be bothered.

Recycled milk container - opps thats gone already.

So whats the answer to the $60,000 question. It certainly isnt mom and pop investors having a stake in Synlait as we know it today.

Change my mind!

[Breezy]

I have no doubt it will happen. But its what it will look like that will be interesting.

I reckon the only thing of value worth keeping is Dunsandel Infant Formula. Now who ends up owning that is the $60,000 question. (They have SAMR and BCorp accreditation that wil assure value here!)

They obviously want to see the back of Dairyworks. (Talbot has already gone).

Packing liquid milk for house brands "Pams" cant be profitable - so i reckon that will go.

Pokeno is obviously about to be put on the blocks.

30 MT of Lactoferrin - that one will go.

UHT cream - really. Who can be bothered.

Recycled milk container - opps thats gone already.

So whats the answer to the $60,000 question. It certainly isnt mom and pop investors having a stake in Synlait as we know it today.

Change my mind!

No it won't be the same SML but at the current sp everything but Armageddon is already built in so a lot of potential upside, it hit a low of 20c when it was a coin toss whether it would survive or not. Convince me its not good buying at current levels.

[Minimoke]

No it won't be the same SML but at the current sp everything but Armageddon is already built in so a lot of potential upside, it hit a low of 20c when it was a coin toss whether it would survive or not. Convince me its not good buying at current levels.

I'm not sure everything is yet built in.

For a start, Synlait remains uninvestable, so its really appears to be just few parties currently propping up the SP on low volume trades.

Next is we have the swinging brick Arbitration results. I dont think these will be material to A2. But given Synlaits sick and precarious position any additional costs will quite likely be material. But who knows - no one does. So the SP cant reflect this.

And then we have year end. Who would be an Auditor when the company clearly has zero idea on what their accounts look like literally from one fortnight to the next. My money is on the Auditors currently burning the midnight oil at extreme ongoing cost to Synlait. And how they twiddle and fiddle their "adjustments" is not going to be a quick sign off for the Auditor.

Which leaves the capital raise. How can a person enter a capital raise exercise with arbitration and year end books being a great unknown.

Still a few chapters of this text book left to be written.

[Breezy]

I'm not sure everything is yet built in.

For a start, Synlait remains uninvestable, so its really appears to be just few parties currently propping up the SP on low volume trades.

Next is we have the swinging brick Arbitration results. I dont think these will be material to A2. But given Synlaits sick and precarious position any additional costs will quite likely be material. But who knows - no one does. So the SP cant reflect this.

And then we have year end. Who would be an Auditor when the company clearly has zero idea on what their accounts look like literally from one fortnight to the next. My money is on the Auditors currently burning the midnight oil at extreme ongoing cost to Synlait. And how they twiddle and fiddle their "adjustments" is not going to be a quick sign off for the Auditor.

Which leaves the capital raise. How can a person enter a capital raise exercise with arbitration and year end books being a great unknown.

Still a few chapters of this text book left to be written.

When yes your not sure and no one is at this point. SP is relatively stable after yesterday's update, your not seeing the depth wiped out back down to 25c as it easily could with keen sellers so yeah.

[KW]

I don't understand but am interested to know what you mean. You said:

"Quite likely the bounce was short sellers closing out their positions post vote.  Taking their profits and running."

And then in reply to my question, you answered:

How are these related - like what does "lending fee" have to do with short selling (borrow shares, sell them, buy them back lower), how would this work to short-sell SML, and make a profit post-the loan being approved?

thanks

You said  "Short selling in NZ is behind the scenes, IF you can find someone to lend you shares"

If you ask a broker to go find you some shares, the lending fee is what they will be offering the owner of those shares.  So if a broker approaches a client and says "I can get 8% pa for loaning your shares out, are you keen?"  then that's how brokers find shares.  If I tell IB that I want to short SM1 they will source those shares for me.   The higher the lending fee, the easier it is to get someone to agree to lend out their shares.

[snapiti]

yep very hard to find someone in NZ to facilitate shorting, from my experience when you do the volume available and conditions attached are not ideal

[Teitei]

yep very hard to find someone in NZ to facilitate shorting, from my experience when you do the volume available and conditions attached are not ideal

Whether you can short depends on whether stock is available. One entity which provides shorting is LE (owned by Forbar). LE lends stock which it holds as security for their margin lending clients.

I have used LE for shorting before - most profitably with Air NZ - but the conditions are such that it is easy to get caught out by the holder calling the stock back.

With SML, be very surprising if any investor is holding in LE via margin lending!!!!

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/assets/Leveraged-Equities/Leveraged-Equities-Short-Selling-Brochure.pdf

[Minimoke]

I see Fonterra are making some tough calls. Finance team being outsourced to india.

Now there's an idea for Synlait - especially given they cant get their Guidance right one fortnight to the next

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/nz-news/350352215/brutal-job-cuts-hit-fonterra-hamilton

[Auto Rower]

I see Fonterra are making some tough calls. Finance team being outsourced to india.

Now there's an idea for Synlait - especially given they cant get their Guidance right one fortnight to the next

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/nz-news/350352215/brutal-job-cuts-hit-fonterra-hamilton

Brutal Indeed ,I hope other companies do not follow this trend

[Basil]

I see Fonterra are making some tough calls. Finance team being outsourced to india.

Now there's an idea for Synlait - especially given they cant get their Guidance right one fortnight to the next

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/nz-news/350352215/brutal-job-cuts-hit-fonterra-hamilton

Pretty sure there's a couple of monkey's at Auckland zoo with some time on their hands.  Would do a better job that Synlaits team for a few bananas a day   

[Teitei]

Pretty sure there's a couple of monkey's at Auckland zoo with some time on their hands.  Would do a better job that Synlaits team for a few bananas a day   

Now now, Beagle - don't insult the monkeys! They are known to be able to write books by simply randomly bashing on key boards!