SML - Synlait

[snapiti]

As you predicted, Snapiti, A2M to vote in favour of loan proposal.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/434298

same will go for the bonds, don't own any shares but took a punt on the bonds when they were offering monster 130% returns, this based on ATM's position that needs to make sure SML is a going concern.
Confident bonds will be repaid in full

[Teitei]

In my view, based on almost no evidence, A2M are acting as though they don't need Synlait to be a going concern. This is consistent with their (lack of) messaging around supporting Synlait, their late disclosure of intention to vote, and the concerns raised in A2M's announcement today (read between the lines in that one!).

I understand that it is Synlait holds the A2 Platinum licence. But IMO you have to know the specifics of the arrangements to draw any conclusions on A2M's need for Synlait. They may be comfortable with Synlait entering liquidation, especially given Synalit haven't been the best partner to date.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/synlait-can-recover-chinas-bright-dairy/CD4OAZYKZVGVDISAFWATJIWKN4/

In the interview with the Herald, Bright's Chairman said:

"Both a2 and Bright Food want to Synlait to stabilise. Without Synlait, there would not be prosperity for a2 Milk".

[Teitei]

Loan proposal approved - clear from meeting.

Proxy votes - 59m or 27% in favour so A2M with its 20% would have been defeated anyway if it voted against the loan.

A2M would have egg all over its face if it voted NO.

A2M = Eunuch.

[Teitei]

I suspect A2M is voting no. In my mind there are three scenarios, ie, A2M:

• votes yes, but aren't announcing intentions to depress the share price prior to a capital raise
• votes yes, but don't announce intentions because they are wanting to maintain arms lengths distance from all Synlait matters (this one I am least sure about)
• votes no, to draw to an end Synlait's on-going demise (and remove distractions, ie, arbitration proceedings)

I think the third option is looking quite likely.

Did not matter which way A2M voted.

A2M = Eunuch.

[Teitei]

Sp up ahead of vote tomorrow and on decent 500k+ turnover again.

Again, would have been $6m+ turnover once but now, just a paltry $132k.

Sp up 40% +.

Smart buying in the last 3 days.

[Teitei]

Quite right. Market opened at $0.23 but already is at $0.225. Now worth less than $50m

Oops. Down to $0.22

Ops down to $0.215

Last post from Doomsday Minimoke regarding share price.

Interesting how very quiet he has been after being so vocal and being negative about anything Synlait.

Perhaps he will surface soon now that he can get really negative about the loan proposal going through?

[Left Field]

Sp up 40% +.
Smart buying in the last 3 days.

Indeed..... well done those brave ones.

Anyway's as an ATM holder I'm happy too..... and still watching with interest to see how the cap raise plays out.

[SemiStrongForm]

"Both a2 and Bright Food want to Synlait to stabilise. Without Synlait, there would not be prosperity for a2 Milk".

This is posturing from Bright and should not be read literally IMO. There are all sorts of games that could be going on, some of which are being discussed on HC.

Did not matter which way A2M voted.
A2M = Eunuch.

Yes it is easy to say that after a their intentions have been signalled.

[SemiStrongForm]

No surprise that the majority voted in favour of the resolution. Would it have passed without A2's support? Looks like the vote would be over 50% but not sure what the rule is.

[Teitei]

No surprise that the majority voted in favour of the resolution. Would it have passed without A2's support? Looks like the vote would be over 50% but not sure what the rule is.

Simple majority of those who vote.

[Teitei]

This is posturing from Bright and should not be read literally IMO. There are all sorts of games that could be going on, some of which are being discussed on HC.
Yes it is easy to say that after a their intentions have been signalled.

I have stated several times before that A2M is a eunuch. Today more than confirms that. In fact, the other shareholders show that they can rally in numbers to outvote A2M. 

As for HC - I never read that site as it's full of a lot of nonsense.

[snapiti]

This is posturing from Bright and should not be read literally IMO. There are all sorts of games that could be going on, some of which are being discussed on HC.
Yes it is easy to say that after a their intentions have been signalled.

great investor lessons to be learned from following SML story, you don't even have to have a vested interest in the goings on to be learning a lot, that includes, among many things, the business posturing.
Would it be best now the loan agreement is agreed to for both Bright and ATM to have the SP fall from here to enable a cheaper cap raise price......makes sense to me   

[SemiStrongForm]

As for HC - I never read that site as it's full of a lot of nonsense.

I find that HC analysis is highly dependent on company. Although the recent threads on Cettire made me reconsider that position since it seemed to be full of technical analysis lunatics that were claiming the stock was cheap despite the revelation of serious allegations that could fundamentally break the entire business model. It is now one of the most shorted stocks on the ASX.

[Breezy]

I have stated several times before that A2M is a eunuch. Today more than confirms that. In fact, the other shareholders show that they can rally in numbers to outvote A2M. 

As for HC - I never read that site as it's full of a lot of nonsense.

The A2M threads on HC are overall far better than any of the NZ forums due to a much larger audience and holder base.

[CG]

I have stated several times before that A2M is a eunuch. Today more than confirms that. In fact, the other shareholders show that they can rally in numbers to outvote A2M. 

As for HC - I never read that site as it's full of a lot of nonsense.

Vote NO and "A2M can wave goodbye to its China IF business..."
Vote YES and "A2M = Eunuch"

Hmmm, not much choice here. But great analysis. No-one on HC can beat that. That's for sure.