MFT - Mainfreight

[Waltzing]

Yes and rates arnt going down any time soon?

Feb is not cutting this year and maybe not even next? Oil heading up.. up up...

[Mr Cashflow]

Freight rates have fallen back to around their pre-covid period.  Inflation makes the situation  worse. The tough times for the freight industry are likely to continue.

[Shareguy]

The keynote speaker at a Trans-Tasman Business Council event this morning, Auckland port's chief executive Roger Gray said trade volumes had fallen by about 30 percent in the last quarter.

[Onemootpoint]

Agree debt and a very strong union. Huge opportunity for MFT however big risk for a NZ company. Time will tell but could go horribly wrong.

From what I'm hearing and seeing in retail in NZ, i have concerns for volumes going forward. This might not be the last cockroach in the kitchen.

However a great company which I have a large holding. Not buying more.......yet

Yellow Trucking's bankruptcy filing spurs run-up in transport stocks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_V5dXp5oZkA

Opportunities await.....in the States despite the "freight recession".

[Shareguy]

Long term supporters Fisher Funds selling down

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417783

Share price seems to be holding up despite the headwinds.

Given Fisher Funds poor kiwi saver performance not sure what this means.

[Onemootpoint]

Long term supporters Fisher Funds selling down

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417783

Share price seems to be holding up despite the headwinds.

Given Fisher Funds poor kiwi saver performance not sure what this means.

Could it be just 'rebalancing' their funds? MFT hold a fairly big position in their managed and KiwiSaver funds

[BlackPeter]

30 000 people out of jobs, just like that. The company handled 7% of LTL shipments.
Seems like debt was the overloading factor here. Times are getting rough.

Lucky MFT have a much more solid balance sheet, isn't it?

... and not so sure about redundancies with them either. Sure - they will reallocate their people as sensible and necessary, but getting rid of them does not really fit to the family atmosphere they try to create in their teams.

Not many families make family members redundant if times get a bit tougher. "Dad - we don't need you anymore, please go". Probably more a time to tighten the belts and prepare for the next boom.

Lets not forget - it is always freight compannies leading the market out of recesessions ... and MFT is a good one.

[Onemootpoint]

Yes. MFT is a good one.
At the time of the Yellow Corp announcement I recall competitor commentators implying Yellow's demise will be good for business....in hushed and 'saddened/ shocked' tones. New opportunities.

[Cod]

Continued breakdown bottom looks to be around 57.50$.

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[Onemootpoint]

I won't be surprised if NYSE market pressures continue well  into October. The will most probably push the shareprice down from here.

[Shareguy]

Given the state of the market I see more pain ahead. Move result not good or a number of international players.

Freightways agm had profit warning. DSV result soft. Putting MFT on the DSV multiple implies a price of around $54-55

Caught up with fastener distribution owner who said freight rates are back to pre COVID levels for all destinations.

While MFT typically surprise on the upside will wait and see before I add.

[Sideshow Bob]

Getting cheaper by the hour.....under $59 already.

[Shareguy]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/03/business/maersk-layoffs-shipping-boom-bust?cid=ios_app

[Mos]

I expect a really tough half year - lower volumes, lower prices, higher costs in inflationary environment. Squeezed from all sides. Good business but tide out.

[Basil]

Might be quite a while before the tide changes again too.  I remember warning on this one when it got very close to $100 and the tide was fully in.  If my memory serves me correctly quite a few holders were not appreciative of my cautious notes.  The problem with market darlings on elevated multiples is that everything has to continue to stay perfect for the stock to continue to outperform, (and it seldom does).