MFT - Mainfreight

[Left Field]

If you are holding any other economically sensitive stocks in your portfolio, now would be an optimum time to review them, before they drop their earnings updates.

This should be a continual process for any investor IMO.

Throughout 2024/25 I have been adjusting my portfolio to make it a lot more 'defensive' in light of projected economic uncertainty and 'Trump effects.' 

I don't hold MFT.

[Cod]

Will be interesting to see whether price candles just revisit's $56.93 Support line or sets up shop below it.
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[Basil]

Has anyone done any work on what the long term, say 10 year CAGR in EPS is ?

[winner (n)]

Has anyone done any work on what the long term, say 10 year CAGR in EPS is ?

that trendline on the chart I posted yesterday has NPAT growing at 15% pa

The super cycle in 22/23 pretty dramatic eh

I still see Mainfreight back on track over the next few years

[Basil]

Thanks Winner.  Share price seems about right to me with that CAGR and PE.  No wonder retirements funds like them with a CAGR like that.

[lorraina]

PE does not come below 20 until 2028,while the dividend is very modest.

Forbar ;
Valuation (x)   25A   26E   27E   28E
PE   22.0   24.4   20.3   17.9
EV/EBIT   16.5   17.8   15.1   13.5
EV/EBITDA   9.4   9.6   8.7   8.0
Price / NTA   3.6   3.5   3.3   3.0
Cash div yld (%)   2.9   2.9   2.9   2.9
Gross div yld (%)   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0

[winner (n)]

PE does not come below 20 until 2028,while the dividend is very modest.

Forbar ;
Valuation (x)   25A   26E   27E   28E
PE   22.0   24.4   20.3   17.9
EV/EBIT   16.5   17.8   15.1   13.5
EV/EBITDA   9.4   9.6   8.7   8.0
Price / NTA   3.6   3.5   3.3   3.0
Cash div yld (%)   2.9   2.9   2.9   2.9
Gross div yld (%)   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0

but by then the share price will be much higher and PE will still be in mid 20's

[lorraina]

And the dividend will remain very modest.

[Basil]

PE does not come below 20 until 2028,while the dividend is very modest.

Forbar ;
Valuation (x)   25A   26E   27E   28E
PE   22.0   24.4   20.3   17.9
EV/EBIT   16.5   17.8   15.1   13.5
EV/EBITDA   9.4   9.6   8.7   8.0
Price / NTA   3.6   3.5   3.3   3.0
Cash div yld (%)   2.9   2.9   2.9   2.9
Gross div yld (%)   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0

Thanks for sharing.
I can still see why the insto's like it with their historical growth rate relative to those forward PE's but I can't help wondering as they've already pretty much filled out their service offer in terms of global logistics capabilities, whether future growth might be slower than what's been achieved previously during their logistics expansionary phase.  In other words, the law of diminishing growth going forward as they've got bigger and bigger over the years, seems like a highly plausible theory to me.   Slower growth = lower forward PE's in the future.  Maybe not going back to a PE in the mid 209's in FY28 as Winner has suggested ?
I curious, what do others think ?

[Plata]

I think at its core, MFT potential competitive advantage can really only stem from some superior administration, leadership and/or customer service. Not really a robust moat, cultures change, organisations stagnate, competitors restructure.  MFT had to and still has to take market share to keep growing at the rate it did, and it still seems priced as if this will occur. Risk seems weighted to the downside.

I think it really pays to consider an individual investment against just buying globally diversified ETFs, and I think on a risk vs opportunity basis MFT doesn't stack up to that at the moment.

[Mos]

Pretty weak performance continues in the key Americas region. Seems key to MFT truly becoming a global success story. Hold but on the fence and not topping up at this level.

Mainfreight doing it tough in first 15 weeks with revenue up 8.5% and NPBT down 11.2%. And that is compared to a softer year last year too. Profitability very low in USA and Europe - a lot of work to do become global success story. Potential is there but can they do it?

Mainfreight have a very profitable business in New Zealand and Australia, and have had for some time. These businesses are still reasonably profitable now when the tide is out from an economic point of view. However, outside the Covid induced Supply Chain mayhem, Mainfreight have never earned strong returns in the USA or Europe. What they have achieved historically is impressive, but to kick on from here they must find a way to earn returns in these key markets that has eluded them to date. I don't think you can pin it all on economic conditions.   

Not much has changed over the past year except the tide has gone out a bit further.

[winner (n)]

They pleased with new customers likely boost sales by $324 million this financial year

[Ferg]

that trendline on the chart I posted yesterday has NPAT growing at 15% pa

Has the number of issued shares also changed?  If not then EPS growth will be the same as NPAT, otherwise it may be different.

[Stockgathering]

Has the number of issued shares also changed?  If not then EPS growth will be the same as NPAT, otherwise it may be different.

Very little change of issued shares in the last 9 years of records I have.

[Left Field]

I've always had a soft spot for MFT but never held.

I like the company/staff/management ethos and it's no bullsh*t reporting.

However, on an international scale I can't see what MFT's unique moat is v competition and consider MFT is v exposed to negative world events such as recessions and tariffs.

The USA share market's reaction to Trumps latest Tariffs and his firing of  labor statistics chief hours after data showed employment growth slowed hardly inspires confidence in a USA led recovery.