VSL - Vulcan Steel

[winner (n)]

Outlook ....trading activity in H125 in Australia and New Zealand expected to remain ar low levels similar to H224

In H224 NPAT was $14m (10 cents per share) ......so full year not looking too good

And that $14m was DOWN from $40m pcp

[winner (n)]

No surprise for me but to some this is of a shocker update from Vulcan

Q125 - Volumes down 10% and revenues down 13% and ebitda down 40% v pcp

They remain optimistic but I'm sticking to my 2027/2028 forecast as to timing of any decent recovery


https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/440387/attachment/429994/440387-429994.pdf

[winner (n)]

And talking about bank covenants and supportive bankers never a good sign

[winner (n)]

EBITDA only $23m in Q1

At this rate H1 NPAT won't be very much ...not a Loss but not very much profit

Volumes down 10% and revenues down 13% suggests lower selling prices and reduced margins.

Be interesting how H125 turns out

[winner (n)]

Market must have been thinking the worst and todays news is good news ..a relief maybe

Share price upn5% and back over 9 bucks ...not far off its highs of last couple years

[BlackPeter]

Market must have been thinking the worst and todays news is good news ..a relief maybe

Share price upn5% and back over 9 bucks ...not far off its highs of last couple years

Markets are forwards looking - and maybe not everybody has such a bleak picture of the future ;

[winner (n)]

Markets are forwards looking - and maybe not everybody has such a bleak picture of the future ;

What was the forward looking market looking at when share was close to 11 bucks not that long ago?

[Ferg]

Mr Market has amnesia and schizophrenia.

[BlackPeter]

What was the forward looking market looking at when share was close to 11 bucks not that long ago?

Markets always forward looking - however, this does not mean they can see the future better than anybody else ; As we all know - while every Tom, Dick and Harry is able to predict the future (and they do), NOBODY is able to do that with any statistical relevance. Its just noise.

[winner (n)]

Markets always forward looking - however, this does not mean they can see the future better than anybody else ; As we all know - while every Tom, Dick and Harry is able to predict the future (and they do), NOBODY is able to do that with any statistical relevance. Its just noise.

So it's OK for the market to think VSL going to be busy at the same time as me having a "bleak picture of the future"

[BlackPeter]

So it's OK for the market to think VSL going to be busy at the same time as me having a "bleak picture of the future"

Absolutely. While I am not sure, whether its good for ones mental health to have a bleak picture of the future, there is no rule prohibiting it.

However ... given that pessimists are not more often right than optimists, and given that optimists feel much better than pessimists, it clearly is beneficial to have a less bleak view of the future.

[winner (n)]

Absolutely. While I am not sure, whether its good for ones mental health to have a bleak picture of the future, there is no rule prohibiting it.

However ... given that pessimists are not more often right than optimists, and given that optimists feel much better than pessimists, it clearly is beneficial to have a less bleak view of the future.

You used the words 'dismal' and 'bleak' ...... but I'm an optimist and in good mental health

Suppose my forecast around Vulcans future level of activity is 'dismal' but it's only 'dismal' because it's at odds withbVulcan's (and I suspect yours) view of things.

I've been involved in related industries most of my life. I stand by my considered view that the rhetoric of all this work coming up won't provide boom times for the likes of Vulcan. ....things will plod along as they are for a few more years but we might see things getting better in 2027/2028

The optimists probably believe in "The Growth Fairy" ...bugger can't post an image because a simple screen capture file is too big ....ironically had to go into shrink mode to show image


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[BlackPeter]

You used the words 'dismal' and 'bleak' ...... but I'm an optimist and in good mental health

Suppose my forecast around Vulcans future level of activity is 'dismal' but it's only 'dismal' because it's at odds withbVulcan's (and I suspect yours) view of things.

I've been involved in related industries most of my life. I stand by my considered view that the rhetoric of all this work coming up won't provide boom times for the likes of Vulcan. ....things will plod along as they are for a few more years but we might see things getting better in 2027/2028

The optimists probably believe in "The Growth Fairy" ...bugger can't post an image because a simple screen capture file is too big ....ironically had to go into shrink mode to show image


You cannot view this attachment.

All good, winner.

First - I have no view at all on the future of VSL. From a personal perspective - I am not invested in them because I don't like their balance sheet.

But yes, I am somewhat more optimistic regarding the nearer future of the industry ... but hey - maybe its my believe in the growth fairy, or maybe its your believe in whoever the opposite to the growth fairy is.

Both of us could be right ... and most of that will be dependant on future events both of us don't know about yet. No need to quarrel.

BTW - I didn't use the word "dismal". Where did you find that? 

[winner (n)]

All good, winner.

First - I have no view at all on the future of VSL. From a personal perspective - I am not invested in them because I don't like their balance sheet.

But yes, I am somewhat more optimistic regarding the nearer future of the industry ... but hey - maybe its my believe in the growth fairy, or maybe its your believe in whoever the opposite to the growth fairy is.

Both of us could be right ... and most of that will be dependant on future events both of us don't know about yet. No need to quarrel.

BTW - I didn't use the word "dismal". Where did you find that? 

Maybe the 'average' if views for VSL and STU is that volumes/sales will flatline for the next few years

Did you see Fletchers say last 3 months volumes 10%-15% lower than pcp and expect that to contine for the next 9 months

[winner (n)]

The forward looking market seems to have an abrupt about turn last few days

Now seeing not so good times for Vulcan as share price drops more than 10%