ARV - Arvida Group

[Mr Cashflow]

I did think about selling some and keeping the rest, which is mostly what I do. However was lucky enough to own most of them under a $1 so a reasonable profit to be had. Also have been building a larger position in Ryman (My largest in the sector) and also still hold OCA and a smaller holding in Sum.  Sum I recently sold down to invest in Ryman.  Overall I made the decision to sell all in this case just based on my overall holding in the sector, which is over weight.

So yes selling some and keeping some in my opinion makes perfect sense and is generally what I do. There is a good possibility that the offer could get improved or further parties get involved.  Either way I'm happy to take a profit and move onto the next opportunity.

Good luck

Thank you so much Shareguy. I think your decision is right given the uncertainty in global markets. Also, you've done a very intelligent trading.  My congratulations! I was very bad in selling in the past and now I have a selling strategy.  Still made few mistakes and they gave me some good lessons. Unlike those days I keep some cash in my portfolio in additon to one or two never sell stocks.Last 12 months was very profitable year for me. Realized some profits from trading and investment. I have kept few listed companies on my radar for investment purpose and trading purpose in global markets as well as in NZX.

Here I learnt something from you.
"Buy when others sell as there's no tomorrow and sky is going to fall
Sell when others chase stocks"

Anyway, markets are looking choppy. We may get some great opportunities. I'm looking forward to them.

[winner (n)]

When Arvida Board rejected the first $1.70 offer 10 Year Govt stock was about 5.1%. Today it's 4.4%. With this in mind you'd that the $1.70 which "meaningfully undervalued Arvida's intrinsic value" would be worth quite a bit more today.

But today the Chair said $1.70 was a "compelling price"

BusinessDesk asked what had changed the board's position in the interim, Beverly said the full-year result was "softer than expected".

So a pleasing result was actually in their view  'softer than expected' and is such the'meaningfully undervalued' $1.70 they rejected was just a dream.

You could say with the significant fall in interest rates from when the first offer was made and the 'softer than expected' full year result the Board has overseen a decent chunk of shareholder value in last six months ....maybe up to 50 cents a share.

Not a good look in my opinion. All the more reason shareholders should take the money and run ..... and thank their lucky stars they've done very well.

[Waltzing]

yes but brain eastern says its unlikely the dream of lower house prices will be achieved (45 percent in real terms in ten years) ....

that means the board no longer sees the sector as profitable from a capital gain perspective or that current model is just not working out they way everyone says it will....

someone say it ant so ... joe...

[winner (n)]

Grant Samuel has been engaged to prepare the Independent Adviser's Report

I reckon they'll come up with a price range of $1.65 to $1.80 and say the offer is fair

[BlackPeter]

Grant Samuel has been engaged to prepare the Independent Adviser's Report

I reckon they'll come up with a price range of $1.65 to $1.80 and say the offer is fair

... and no doubt they will be paid millions to come to this verdict ;

[Basil]

Grant Samuel has been engaged to prepare the Independent Adviser's Report

I reckon they'll come up with a price range of $1.65 to $1.80 and say the offer is fair

They will come up with a valuation range that suits whoever is paying their bill.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar Just sold 11m odd shares. I guess those of us that sold @ current levels can be happy with ourselves.

[Basil]

Huge volumes continuing today.  After just 2 hours of trading 16.4m shares have changed hands and 15.2m remain on the bid at $1.61.  Huge arbitrage funds and sellers are doing business at a very brisk rate !

[Shareguy]

With a global share sell off gaining strength are we going to see this deal re negotiated (like Metlifecare was)or worse.

[mike2023]

With a global share sell off gaining strength are we going to see this deal re negotiated (like Metlifecare was)or worse.

Probably not. Most people seem to think it's a bit low already and looking at yesterday it held up while most did not.

[winner (n)]

With a global share sell off gaining strength are we going to see this deal re negotiated (like Metlifecare was)or worse.

Funny I was thinking the same yesterday

Nearly pulled up the Agreement to see if any triggers mentioned

Mind Metlife was probably more to do with the profit uncertainties related to Covid more than anything else.

[Basil]

With a global share sell off gaining strength are we going to see this deal re negotiated (like Metlifecare was)or worse.

Must admit I was wondering the same thing. Here's the scheme implementation agreement. VERY long and VERY complex.  Maybe something in here that ostensibly acts like a force Majure clause. I'm not inclined to spend the time to go looking for it but if I was a holder of ARV shares I would take the money and run!  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/434816/attachment/423099/434816-423099.pdf
Cash is definitely king at this point in time.

[allfromacell]

Cash is definitely king at this point in time.

I recall you taking a similar stance during covid just before / as central banks started their rate cuts.

I'd argue holding cash is the last thing I'd want to do right now as we look to enter another aggressive rate cutting cycle.

[Basil]

Buffett holding a record level of cash at present too.

[BlackPeter]

Buffett holding a record level of cash at present too.

Didn't he hold as well airlines before they moved into the Covid crash?

Just saying ... he is a smart investor, but he isn't always right.

Discl: currently roughly at 20 % cash which is a lot for my investing style, but still 80% shares and bonds