GNE - Genesis Energy

[Cod]

GNE slight uptrend channel in place but bumping against ATL AVWAP indicators assuming neutral posture waiting for direction -- Earnings Wednesday 20th Aug 25 will determine direction of travel.
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[lorraina]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNE.NZ/chart/

I note RSI is currently 61.45.

[winner (n)]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNE.NZ/chart/

I note RSI is currently 61.45.

Not overbought then  ...yet?

[Basil]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/energy/genesis-energy-begins-150m-grid-scale-battery-project-at-huntly/USEE7ALGURHIHDKYXZGM7NRLK4/

[Basil]

Using A.I. to reduce customers power bills by 10% !   one mention of A.I. and the shares start moving...or is it the 8.5% yield looking increasingly attractive in a lower interest rate environment ?  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/energy/genesis-says-ai-trial-cuts-energy-use-by-10-in-off-peak-times-with-smart-hot-water-control/NNKSFOF7GJHR3EICRJXSUWOWRQ/

$2.14 looking like a good entry price now eh Snapiti.

[Cod]

I notice that GNE PGW et al all have the same feature, End of 22 high, falling until mid of 24, stabilizing, beginnings of rise to now, exiting of down channel or wedge. OCR rates falling, NZ10yr bond stable. Perhaps the tides have turned, and all boats are being lifted.

[Basil]

REIT's starting to break higher too.   I hold plenty of KPG and ARG.

[Cod]

REIT's starting to break higher too.  I hold plenty of KPG and ARG.

Yes, exactly. The task at hand IMHO is to not sell when one has a modicum of profit but to hold for the rest of the cycle, for people who have come this far the risk is to sell off too quick.

Apologies for off thread comment.

[winner (n)]

Genesis bosses bemoan the so-called ESG discount applied to the Genesis share price (relative to other sector shares). They often said that it will be unwound because they going more 'green'

That ESG discount probably still more than 30%

One day it might disappear and share price will go to $3.50 plus

[alkebab]

Genesis bosses bemoan the so-called ESG discount applied to the Genesis share price (relative to other sector shares). They often said that it will be unwound because they going more 'green'

That ESG discount probably still more than 30%

One day it might disappear and share price will go to $3.50 plus

I thought there were still ongoing concerns regarding Kupe? Or has it been priced in already? I think the recent lows were at least partially related to Kupe reportedly running out sooner than expected?

[Basil]

Genesis bosses bemoan the so-called ESG discount applied to the Genesis share price (relative to other sector shares). They often said that it will be unwound because they going more 'green'

That ESG discount probably still more than 30%

One day it might disappear and share price will go to $3.50 plus

The irony with ESG and being a "socially responsible investor" https://theimpactinvestor.com/what-is-esg/ is that without the baseload generation capability of Huntly, (notwithstanding it burns coal), society at large would be facing widespread brownout's at times of peak load in Winter.  We can't have that as how would the sanctimonious virtue signaling greenies charge their EV's 😉

Pretty easy to make the case that extending the life of the Rankine units to 2035 and perhaps beyond is the "socially responsible" thing to do which is of course exactly what the various Gentailiers are banding together to do.  But because it burns coal that's bad for the environment so GNE doesn't fit into nice little neat and tidy ESG boxes that some institutional investors create for themselves.

Maybe the artificially contrived do-gooder institutions therefore leave more money on the table for those that can invest with their heads without the artificial constraints of non-sensical ESG restrictions ?  Nothing to much wrong with 8.5% gross yield in the current environment and still a pretty decent premium on 10 year Govt bond rates some ~ 4% south of there.

[Plata]

Had a look at these today for the first time in ages. Seems like the story is basically unchanged with ever expanding OPEX despite the layoffs they did a while back. Was surprised to see what looks like record netback achieved this year making such little difference to EBITDA etc. I'd be very interested to know how they are able to keep extending the life on the boilers and rankines. What happens if the boiler fails earlier than expected? Would they be insured against that?

[Basil]

Looks good for all 3 Rankine units to keep going until at least 2035.  I bought more today for the safe 8.4% gross yield.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456084/attachment/448687/456084-448687.pdf

[LoungeLizard]

Yep, more upside than downside with GNE at these prices, and with that dividend. Best buy in energy sector IMO.

[seaweed]

Looks good for all 3 Rankine units to keep going until at least 2035.  I bought more today for the safe 8.4% gross yield.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/456084/attachment/448687/456084-448687.pdf

Same here