GNE - Genesis Energy

[winner (n)]

Hey Basil .....we still might get that 220/230 price

After last weeks bit of enthusiasm back on track I reckon 

[Basil]

Back out the forthcoming 8.8 cps fully imputed dividend and yesterday's net effective close was $2.425 - 0.088 = $2.337, pretty close to your target buy in price mate.  Tempted?

I find it quite bizarre that the price rallied so strongly on the day of the MSCI index close last week and yet in the days immediately preceding that and yesterday it's in the very low $2.40's.  Not sure what to make of recent share price movements but I couldn't resist buying a modest portion of the ones I sold recently in the high $2.50's back in the low $2.40's yesterday.  Now just playing "possum in the headlights" and see what happens.

10 year Govt stock back about 5% and with US 10 year treasuries up 9 bps overnight it looks like we're headed to as high as 5.2% on our 10 year in the short term.  Where to from here is anyone's guess...  Probably no hurry to buy back any more.

[Onemootpoint]

 I expected it to drop slightly lower than $2.40 on the days immediately prior the index exit. It might still though. Nonetheless, I feel the dividend is still attractive at these lower levels.

[Plata]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300973129/men-charged-with-stealing-99k-of-electricity-after-investigation-into-cannabis-operation

I wonder if we are going to get any of this back...

[Basil]

"Back out the forthcoming 8.8 cps fully imputed dividend and yesterday's net effective close was $2.425 - 0.088 = $2.337, pretty close to your target buy in price mate.  Tempted?"

I was tempted enough to buy some of the ones I sold a while back in the high $2.50's at that above price recently.  Like others I thought under $2.40 might have been on the cards.  I thought it somewhat interesting in today's announcement that they anticipate Unit 5 being back on stream several months earlier in January 2024 and yet losses after insurance deductible are now estimated at the midpoint of the previous guidance range $20-$30m ($25m), despite being back in operation a lot earlier.  That suggests losses could have been much higher than the top end of previous guidance if this outage had of run its full course.

Who knows what they will say with their investor day future strategy review announcement in late November 2023.  I would have loved to go to the annual meeting on Friday October 13 to ask the directors point blank if they understand that most investors but this stock for the dividend and to seek an assurance that the current dividend level is safe but disappointingly this is the same morning as Barramundi's annual meeting and I have far more capital invested in BRM shares and they put on a very nice lunch after their annual meeting.  I guess I could waste some time and send in a question online to the GNE board before the meeting but every time I have done this with every other company, they never answer it.

[Plata]

Apparently one of contacts 100 MW peaker plants shredded itself and is out of action for all of 2024 and probably more. It will be good to have our biggest fast starter online for the upcoming winter. I hate to think what spot prices will be like at peak times if its anything other than a wet winter... lets hope GNE can cash in.

[kiwi2007]

Genesis Energy Limited (NZSE:GNE) Stock Goes Ex-Dividend In Just Four Days (or 2 now).

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/utilities/nzx-gne/genesis-energy-shares/news/genesis-energy-limited-nzsegne-stock-goes-ex-dividend-in-jus

[Plata]

$2.4258 VWAP on 492,708 volume 21st Sept - Good start for a good DRP price
$2.421 VWAP on 448,636 volume 22nd Sept

[Cod]

Waiting for the green arrow.
You cannot view this attachment.

[Plata]

$2.4258 VWAP on 492,708 volume 21st Sept - Good start for a good DRP price
$2.421 VWAP on 448,636 volume 22nd Sept

Not the best close for old genesis... $2.41 VWAP on 674,620 volume 25th Sept. Looking like a DRP strike price of ~$2.35.

[Shareguy]

Not the best close for old genesis... $2.41 VWAP on 674,620 volume 25th Sept. Looking like a DRP strike price of ~$2.35.

Excellent

[winner (n)]

Close 239 ...back to 2017 prices

The 220's still on the cards I reckon

[Ricky Bobby]

Close 239 ...back to 2017 prices

The 220's still on the cards I reckon

Any insights into timeframes to 220's?...

[Basil]

GNE very interest rate sensitive because people buy it for the yield.
US 10 year treasuries hit a 15 year high overnight our time and N.Z. 10 year rate is also at a 15 year high.
While even higher highs can't be ruled out, (implying further downward pressure on interest rate sensitive shares so their yields move correspondingly higher), I suspect we are somewhere near the bottom for GNE with the caveat that dividends don't get reduced as part of their long-term strategy refresh to be announced at an investor day in late November.

From a chartists perspective the TA doesn't give any confidence.  I still have a few, (<2% portfolio position).  I'm disinclined to increase it unless Winner's prediction of $2.20's comes true.

[winner (n)]

Any insights into timeframes to 220's?...

When punters become more risk adverse and 'demand' a higher premium to 10 year Govt stock .....like getting closer to the long term average premium ...or could be when 10 year rate goes up further

Might even be a double whammy (both of those factors) so don't rule out $2.00 .....say over the next few weeks



Could be