GNE - Genesis Energy

[kiwi2007]

SP getting a battering today. Is this the market absorbing the impact of Huntley being offline or something else. I'm tempted to buy in at these levels though - currently $2.56.

Something else:
Or maybe something else as well as;

Geneva, August 10, 2023 Rebalances which will take place as of the close of August 31, 2023.

MSCI GLOBAL SMALL CAP INDEXES - GENESIS ENERGY - Deletion
MSCI GLOBAL MICRO CAP INDEXES - TOURISM HOLDINGS - NEW ZEALAND RURAL LAND - Additions

[Plata]

I'm already pretty loaded up with these but a decline like this from index rebalancing is a hard opportunity to pass up... I would like to know the extent of their insurance though regarding the unit 5 outage. If we get some more extreme weather on the dry side later this year/next year the spot market might get pretty tight. I don't think GNE can cover peak demand of its customers even with unit 5 so without it could leave us in a tricky situation in the future. Thankfully the hydro lakes are very full...for now.

[Cod]

GNE has room to run down yet IMO.
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[winner (n)]

FWiW based on long term correlation of GNE yield /share price and NZ Govt Stock the current share price 'should' be about 240/245

On this basis been overpriced for some time but then sentiment been positive so no worries

[Plata]

FWiW based on long term correlation of GNE yield /share price and NZ Govt Stock the current share price 'should' be about 240/245

On this basis been overpriced for some time but then sentiment been positive so no worries

I imagine that metric would not look so bad if you measured based on free cash flow yield rather than dividend yield. The GNE of years past had a much higher payout ratio than we have seen in more recent times, so I question if it is really apples to apples to use that metric now. Perhaps the modest premium it currently trades at is pricing in a little bit longer of low payout ratio later returning to 90%+ as Kupe peters out.

[Shareguy]

I'm thinking great buying at these levels. Have been accumulating.

Disc: Now one of my larger holding.

[Basil]

FWiW based on long term correlation of GNE yield /share price and NZ Govt Stock the current share price 'should' be about 240/245

On this basis been overpriced for some time but then sentiment been positive so no worries

What the dividend hounds will do if it gets down there.  I'll be in the front row.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNKfucd0HYo

[Buzz]

What the dividend hounds will do if it gets down there.  I'll be in the front row.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNKfucd0HYo

7 cents lower or 12 cents lower in like a robbers dog, but not all over it like a rash now. Why quibble over a few cents? Seriously though, the TA on this is terrible, despite propects of increasing Div%, I wouldn't   touch it until the TA was positive, and by then, I could end up getting more at a higher price than now! 

[Plata]

Certainly, the way this has been falling you'd almost think huntley had broken down

[Shareguy]

I'm expecting 9 cps final divi, fully imputed as per HY23. Not long to wait.

[LoungeLizard]

What the dividend hounds will do if it gets down there.  I'll be in the front row.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNKfucd0HYo

Nice to see you back on the beat, Basil!
Anything under $2.50 is a great buy, IMHO. Trying to pick where the charts will go is best left for TA wizards and waiting for it to hit bottom - whatever that may be - risks getting caught in the bounce back which I fully expect to happen when the dividend is announced, if not before.

[Shareguy]

Anyone else taking advantage? Under $2.50

NZX has NTA at $2.28.

[Basil]

I'm interested but in my experience a share in the lead up to experiencing an index inclusion or exclusion usually goes on to hit its peak or low as the case may be, (at least in the short term), at the time of the index event therefore on the balance of probabilities I foresee the best time to buy as being when it gets excluded from the MSCI small company index on 31 August.

Not saying it isn't deep value already because I think it is, but with 10 year Govt stock over 5% the whole market is facing headwinds in my view.  I think it's also helpful to know from the net yield perspective if they are going to continue to fully impute the dividends or whether they will revert to the usual 80% imputation rate and we'll get further evidence of that when they report on the 24th next week.

I'd also like to know a bit more about how the forthcoming Kupe drilling is hoped to extend the life of the field and how their solar plans are advancing.

[snapiti]

started to hover up a few today based on divi yield and a juicy divi payment just round the corner.....will continue to buy up prior to exclusion date from index as fundies are forced to sell.

[Cod]

Chart updated from below, price to land IMO between covid low and replicated RVGI Value (2.21 - 2.385).

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