GNE - Genesis Energy

[Plata]

Good result no debate there and great its 100% imputed.
All I am saying is there's two ways to look at their dividend track record.
1. Impressively they've increased the dividend every year since they listed in 2014.  Sounds great at face value right?
2. Despite initially promising that their dividend policy was to increase it at a similar rate to inflation, every single year since they listed they have increased it at a rate lower than inflation so in real terms one's dividend has declined every single year.

Could that be because they started the dividend off at too greater % pay-out of cashflow, such that they had insufficient growth capital to beat inflation? I don't know about the post IPO times, but at least in the last 5 years they have had a few 90%+ dividend payout years. Doesn't leave much to work with.

[Basil]

Excellent result and I do appreciate that they need to reinvest in the business for the future.
As others have noted the 100% imputation does soften the blow with a 1% dividend increase.

[winner (n)]

I keep this up to date more out of morbid fascination than anything else becuase the conclusions I draw from are at odds with the market.

Punters either see GNE as less 'risky' than the past or if not less 'risky' punters are prepared to take on more 'risk'

Could also be saying that GNE share price is over priced at the moment ..... but then I take solace from knowing that if/when interest rates fall the share price will most probably go up (hoprfully)

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[Basil]

If they pay what Craigs forecast at 18.5 cps and if its fully imputed that's 18.5 / 0.72 = 25.69 cps and on a share price of $2.90 that's a gross yield of 8.86%, a little more than 400 basis points above the gross yield of 10 year Govt stock.  Seems about right to me. 
In my opinion Craigs might be a bit optimistic given the boards long established pattern of just adding 0.1 cps to the interim and final dividend each year.

 

[winner (n)]

Just as well GNE increased FY profit guidance else chart would have looked worse than it does

No worries if H223 going to be less than pcp - all good on the western front

profit growth over years rather cyclical

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[Shareguy]

This lady makes sense to me.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/opinion/131380164/josie-pagani-how-to-pay-to-fix-our-broken-infrastructure

[xafalcon]

More good news....maybe

From FB today

We also expect Port of Tauranga (POT) will be removed from the S&P/NZX 20 index as it has failed the liquidity requirements. We pick that Genesis Energy (GNE) will replace POT. Official outcomes of the review will be announced close of market, Friday, 3 March 2023, with an effective date close of market Friday, 17 March 2023

Any update on this?

[winner (n)]

Any update on this?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/407811/390079.pdf

[Waltzing]

posted over on politics but JOISE has a point...

but the GOVT  cant possible do anything radical...

but Radical is maybe in a fast change world what is needed...

[Shareguy]

NEW ZEALAND OIL & GAS SIGNS EXTENSION TO KUPE GAS SALES AND THE KUPE JV COMMITS TO A DRILLING RIG
• New Zealand Oil & Gas signs an extension to the Gas Supply Agreement with Genesis Energy for supply of gas from the Kupe field
• Three-year extension from 1 October 2023 for delivery into the New Zealand gas market at a fixed price
• The Kupe Joint Venture signs a drilling contract with Valaris for drilling the KS-9 well
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:NZO, NZX:NZO) is pleased to announce that it has executed an extension of its Gas Supply Agreement with Genesis Energy Limited. The agreement has been extended for three years from 1 October 2023 and covers all New Zealand Oil & Gas' 4% interest in gas production at the Kupe field. The price reflects market conditions. The agreement is subject to regulatory approval.
The Kupe Joint Venture has also executed a drilling rig agreement with Valaris Limited to use the Valaris 107 jack-up rig for the Kupe KS-9 infill well, the same rig that originally drilled up the field (then called the Ensco 107). We currently expect drilling in the second half of CY2023, subject to final regulatory approvals and rig availability.
Chief Executive Andrew Jefferies said "Great to see a plan come together. Committing to the rig to drill KS-9 at the Kupe field and extending our sales relationship with Genesis Energy, the long- standing high-quality buyer of our gas. This gas will be vital to avoid disruption and energy price inflation due to the forecast decline in New Zealand's gas production capacity. Gas that is vital for industry, heating showers, cooking salmon, and providing reliable power, supporting renewable generation. Gas is a three-letter word for transition."
For further information please contact the Group on:

[Hectorplains]

It's odds on that Onslow is now dead in the water - so to speak. 

All fingers on the East Coasts forestry 'slash' issue are pointing to a wood pallet solution.  Meanwhile Genesis are experimenting with wood pallets to fuel Huntly....or maybe I'm joining up too many dots.

Stuff joining the dots now too.

[Onemootpoint]

Good..... but distance and transport came to mind.

"Forests are generally not where dairy factories are." Etc....

Find an economical viable solution to that....maybe as the article suggested; smaller plants nearer to where the raw fuel is.

It's a positive step.

[Shareguy]

Will it or won't it ...um

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131433446/ministers-about-to-decide-which-way-to-flick-the-switch-on-lake-onslow

[Onemootpoint]

Will it or won't it ...um

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131433446/ministers-about-to-decide-which-way-to-flick-the-switch-on-lake-onslow

We already know who is for and against, but I found it interesting that the public poll in the article was 73% in favour last I checked.

[Shareguy]

Not surprised government have agreed to fund next stage of Onslow would of got plenty of grieve from all the millions spent so far. Also to look at alternatives........

It's gone up, now $16b. Decision put off to after election where it will finally be thrown out (my prediction)or sooner if National get in.

Phase one investigations show a pumped hydro scheme at Lake Onslow would take approximately seven to nine years to build, with an estimated building cost of $15.7b.

Work would continue on this option which had originally been costed at $4b.

A detailed business case is expected to be developed by the end of 2024, followed by a final investment decision, which is expected to take a further two years.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/price-tag-on-proposed-pumped-hydro-scheme-rises-above-15-billion/6RMIFV6QJFHTBHWR5GAD25LLMI/