GNE - Genesis Energy

[Raven]

Jantar understands the market best but he is not on this site as far as I know.

The spot electricity market is not a real market - it's a cartel - wind is often priced at 0.01 - WITS trading website has live data   

Yes, Jantar would be an extremely valuable addition to this forum.

[BlackPeter]

Jantar understands the market best but he is not on this site as far as I know.

The spot electricity market is not a real market - it's a cartel - wind is often priced at 0.01 - WITS trading website has live data   

Your information re wind pricing is correct, but (without context) misleading and spot electricity market is not a cartel (unless you say they have secret price agreements, which would be possible but illegal), but an auction comparable to the auctions we have every day at start and end of stock exchange hours.

Every generator offers their capacity for the coming 30 min timeslot and consumers defining the demand. Highest price within the group of cheapest offers determines the market price which everyone pays (and gets).

Wind always goes with 0.01 into the auction (given that the generators can't guarantee it for the next 30 minutes), however it is paid the market rate which is determined by the highest offer still accepted to fill the required demand.

[xafalcon]

Has GNE worked its way back, (with recent share price declines), into contention as a safe defensive BUY ?
Craigs reckon 18.1 cps in dividends and if they maintain their long term track record of 80% imputation that works out to 18.1 / 0.776 = 23.32 cps gross / $2.61 = 8.94% gross yield.  Almost 9% for a safe utility company that's recession proof.  Pretty attractive yield.  Safe harbour for a modest portion of one's funds in a choppy market ?

There have been a number of high volume trades over the past few days. I believe the current SP is triggering these. GNE recently upgraded their guidance, and all this rain will reduce the need to run Huntly, maximising GNE returns on hydro and possibly another upgrade. The dividend yield is already impressive and I understand GNE are still increasing their connections and unit pricing. Add in their EV partnership with ChargeNet, and it does look good

Only fly is Lake Onslow. An update is due on this next month

[Basil]

Thanks.  New Genesis add about their partnership with Chargenet is pretty cool although I could be biased due to the breed of dog involved 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxJfh9Y8PIU  5 unlucky possums lol...she's pretty cute too.

[winner (n)]

Jeez, GNE share price could head into the 240s tomorrow ..or next week

Getting closer to the long term reasonable 'risk adjusted yield' and subsequent share price.

[Shareguy]

Hope so Winner.

[Plata]

I've been watching this with both slight concern and temptation. Somewhat underwater on my latest foray into this one but c'est la vie. Could the relative underperformance of GNE over the last month be explained by an Onslow go ahead verdict being known by the select few? If that was the case you would expect a pure wind play like NWF to be much better off right, yet share price pretty muted... puts a hole in that theory. Is GNE just seen as the dog of the gentailers and so gets punished the most? Or maybe it is because of coal prices rising ~20% in last week or so?

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[Basil]

From what I observed today all the movement was right at the close for reasons unknown.. 
A lot of so called ethical or ESG funds can't invest into GNE despite the obvious irony that in many dry years sanctimonious electric car users are relying on coal fired generation to charge their cars up.

[Shareguy]

Yes end of month rebalancing.

[Basil]

Interesting article.  https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976521083/excess-dividends-in-the-electricity-sector-the-other-side-of-the-argument.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+30+Nov+2022

[Basil]

Normal service has resumed this morning.  Gross yield 8.85% @ $2.60.

[arekaywhy]

Interesting article.  https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976521083/excess-dividends-in-the-electricity-sector-the-other-side-of-the-argument.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+30+Nov+2022

so...do they mean that the "problems" are all the actual features of our electricity generation set up?

[Basil]

Of note, we have the fourth-highest renewable electricity percentage in the OECD. While we could improve further, this is still something to be proud of, particularly as the world grapples with the huge challenges of hitting Net Zero by 2050.

New Zealand is aiming to achieve 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2035,

As I understand it the last few percent are going to be extremely expensive to achieve.  The root issue as I see it is you have a bunch of ideologists in power at present who seem incapable of taking a pragmatic approach.  The issue with wind and solar as I see it is if the wind isn't blowing and / or the sun isn't shining who provides backup base load generation and at what cost ?

[Shareguy]

As I understand it the last few percent are going to be extremely expensive to achieve.  The root issue as I see it is you have a bunch of ideologists in power at present who seem incapable of taking a pragmatic approach.  The issue with wind and solar as I see it is if the wind isn't blowing and / or the sun isn't shining who provides backup base load generation and at what cost ?

YES.  Plus Huntly located close to NZ largest consumers. National say they cant see project stacking up.  Onslow a huge expense to achieve what, being able to say fully renewable.  Good to see National coming out confirming oil and gas exploration ban will also be gone. 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130434710/national-confirms-end-to-offshore-oil-and-gas-ban-if-elected-in-2023

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/10-reasons-why-project-onslow-is-a-bad-idea

[Shareguy]

Just completed another buy. Now one of my largest holdings on the NZX.

Merry Xmas
To all