GNE - Genesis Energy

[Hectorplains]

Genesis say they have a big stockpile and predict they will burn far less of it into the future.

Dunno, if this was good luck or good management, eh. 

[Shareguy]

The well respected power analyst at Craig's (Cameron Parker) used to work at Genesis.

I like it even more. Inside knowledge. Craig's number one power pick at $3.71 outperform

Jarden have increased their target price from $2.94 to $3.23

[Basil]

The well respected power analyst at Craig's (Cameron Parker) used to work at Genesis.

I like it even more. Inside knowledge. Craig's number one power pick at $3.71 outperform

Jarden have increased their target price from $2.94 to $3.23

Interesting, thanks for sharing.  Still trades cum the 8.9 cps 80% imputed FY22 final divvy too.
My biggest holding as I see it as recession proof.

[winner (n)]

The well respected power analyst at Craig's (Cameron Parker) used to work at Genesis.

I like it even more. Inside knowledge. Craig's number one power pick at $3.71 outperform

Jarden have increased their target price from $2.94 to $3.23

Cameron was Genesis's Investor Relations Manager

Part of his job was ".... the framing of results announcements" .......code for making it all sound good.

The face Of Craig's in Mark (who loves presenting to crowds of hundreds) also touts energy sector experience before joining the wealth game.

So if Craig's say GNE worth $3.85 it must be worth at least $4 next year

[Plata]

Would be nice but I can't see this getting past the low-mid 3s unless something unexpected happens with interest rates.

[winner (n)]

Jeez - GNE share price mid 280's. It was over 3 bucks last week ....and heading Craig's target of 360 or whatever it was

What's up

[Plata]

Bond yields are up

Also lets not forget everything is down at the moment. In other news they have released an announcement about the security options https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399469

[LoungeLizard]

I am convinced that with the coming world recession there isn't going to be any such thing as a "defensive" stock, including GNE. AT such time, analysing PE, EPS etc is not seeing the wood for the trees. Macroeconomics will consign all those charts and graphs to the dustbin. A lot of "defensive" stocks are on a downtrend already.
 The only truly defensive strategy at these times is cash. Sure, you can say that GNE etc will recover and you are getting maybe 7-8% yield in the meantime, but if the market - and your capital - drops 30%, doesn't it make more sense to exit before the proverbial really does hit the fan? There's a perfect storm of stagflation (inflation/no growth) hitting every major economy and sooner or later (starting with Wall Street) sharemarkets will tank. All the signs are there already.
It is hard, psychologically, to sell at levels below what you could have got 6 months ago, and hence most people hang in hoping for things to go up then (they tell themselves) they will sell. Unfortunately in another six months I believe the index will be lower again across the board. If you're sitting on gains or small losses, I reckon it is better to take them now and go on holiday. For the most part I've done that already, except - tragically - for my SKT shares

[lorraina]

If you go back to the 1987 Crash and GFC, it is worth while noting the companies whose share price recovered quickly, and then ploughed ahead, were the solid dividend payers.
Today we have power companies and phone companies together with the likes of POT.Solid divie payers.
Looking ahead I note SFF on USX spent $30mil in capital improvements three years ago,then $50mil,and last year $60mil.This year they had upped it to $100 mil.All the time paying increasing divies.
The out look for these companies looks solid.Even SML look to have turned the corner.

[BlackPeter]

I am convinced that with the coming world recession there isn't going to be any such thing as a "defensive" stock, including GNE. AT such time, analysing PE, EPS etc is not seeing the wood for the trees. Macroeconomics will consign all those charts and graphs to the dustbin. A lot of "defensive" stocks are on a downtrend already.
 The only truly defensive strategy at these times is cash. Sure, you can say that GNE etc will recover and you are getting maybe 7-8% yield in the meantime, but if the market - and your capital - drops 30%, doesn't it make more sense to exit before the proverbial really does hit the fan? There's a perfect storm of stagflation (inflation/no growth) hitting every major economy and sooner or later (starting with Wall Street) sharemarkets will tank. All the signs are there already.
It is hard, psychologically, to sell at levels below what you could have got 6 months ago, and hence most people hang in hoping for things to go up then (they tell themselves) they will sell. Unfortunately in another six months I believe the index will be lower again across the board. If you're sitting on gains or small losses, I reckon it is better to take them now and go on holiday. For the most part I've done that already, except - tragically - for my SKT shares

It is so easy to draw up a fictive scenario and believe in it ... and make than a lot of otherwise quite senseless moves in order to satisfy this particular scenario.

Fact is - nobody, and I mean NOBODY knows how economy and how inflation will develop from here.

Nobody predicted the breakdown of the Soviet union in 1989, before it happened - and nobody will be be able to predict the date when Putin leaves the stage and what happens afterwards. We just know - at some lucky day he will depart.

Nobody predicted Covid and its impact on the economy ... but I remember a lot of people predicting (after Covid started) that the economy will go into a tail spin. Well, it didn't.

Where I am going here is - while you painted a possible scenario ... it is by no means certain or more likely than a lot of other scenarios, i.e. it might not be appropriate to put all your money on this card.

I'd see all options as open - from hyper inflation like after WWI and WWII in Germany (and in this case  cash would be the dumbest possible investment option) over various scenarios with shorter and longer medium inflation through to Putin kicking the bucket tomorrow and everybody taking a deep breath of relief, energy prices rapidly stabilizing and inflation going back to its designated band: Well, clearly a possibility as well,

Now - nobody (NOBODY) knows, which scenario will play out, and given this uncertainty appears the most appropriate strategy diversification. This is some cash, some solid bonds, some gold, some property and some solid shares. GNE clearly falls into the latter category, and if you look into some past disaster scenarios, Gentailers did in the long run always good. They just provide a product people want and need.

While I agree that this might not be the time to put all money into Gentailers (it never is), it clearly is not the time either to take all your money out of them.

Anyway - good luck with your strategy, but better not sell 100% cash as defensive. I know about a number of people who got (financially) killed by this strategy ... and if you really expect a world recession, than hyperinflation is not the least likely follower.

[LoungeLizard]

It is so easy to draw up a fictive scenario and believe in it ... and make than a lot of otherwise quite senseless moves in order to satisfy this particular scenario.

Fact is - nobody, and I mean NOBODY knows how economy and how inflation will develop from here.

Nobody predicted the breakdown of the Soviet union in 1989, before it happened - and nobody will be be able to predict the date when Putin leaves the stage and what happens afterwards. We just know - at some lucky day he will depart.

Nobody predicted Covid and its impact on the economy ... but I remember a lot of people predicting (after Covid started) that the economy will go into a tail spin. Well, it didn't.

Where I am going here is - while you painted a possible scenario ... it is by no means certain or more likely than a lot of other scenarios, i.e. it might not be appropriate to put all your money on this card.

I'd see all options as open - from hyper inflation like after WWI and WWII in Germany (and in this case  cash would be the dumbest possible investment option) over various scenarios with shorter and longer medium inflation through to Putin kicking the bucket tomorrow and everybody taking a deep breath of relief, energy prices rapidly stabilizing and inflation going back to its designated band: Well, clearly a possibility as well,

Now - nobody (NOBODY) knows, which scenario will play out, and given this uncertainty appears the most appropriate strategy diversification. This is some cash, some solid bonds, some gold, some property and some solid shares. GNE clearly falls into the latter category, and if you look into some past disaster scenarios, Gentailers did in the long run always good. They just provide a product people want and need.

While I agree that this might not be the time to put all money into Gentailers (it never is), it clearly is not the time either to take all your money out of them.

Anyway - good luck with your strategy, but better not sell 100% cash as defensive. I know about a number of people who got (financially) killed by this strategy ... and if you really expect a world recession, than hyperinflation is not the least likely follower.

I agree that no-one has a crystal ball - although using the breakup of USSR and a pandemic as metaphors for why we can't predict an economic downturn is a bit of a stretch. I do think most people can see that the bull run is well and truly over and we are in bear(ish) territory. The NZX index is down 15% over the last year and down 2.5% in only the last month. Wall Street is worse.

The question is what do you do with that information and all the very pessimistic economic indicators in all the major economies. Ignore them? Carry on trading? Whose portfolio is in positive over the last 6 months? Not many of us I would say. And would you say things will be better or worse in 6 months? The odds on they will be worse. So what to do? Sit tight and watch your portfolio decline and engage a bit of cognitive dissonance whereby a 7% divvy is somehow better than losing 20% of your capital?

Many investors make all sorts of sell/buy/sit decisions - based on micro-trends. How much of that is crystal ball gazing to be honest? So why the reticence in analysing macro-trends? I do agree that one needs to diversify much more broadly into all asset classes but the old adage that cash is king during recessionary times is broadly true. Fixed term deposit rates are 4.5% - that's ok in my view and eliminates the very real risk of capital erosion that exposure to the sharemarket presents att his time. 

[BlackPeter]

I agree that no-one has a crystal ball - although using the breakup of USSR and a pandemic as metaphors for why we can't predict an economic downturn is a bit of a stretch. I do think most people can see that the bull run is well and truly over and we are in bear(ish) territory. The NZX index is down 15% over the last year and down 2.5% in only the last month. Wall Street is worse.

The question is what do you do with that information and all the very pessimistic economic indicators in all the major economies. Ignore them? Carry on trading? Whose portfolio is in positive over the last 6 months? Not many of us I would say. And would you say things will be better or worse in 6 months? The odds on they will be worse. So what to do? Sit tight and watch your portfolio decline and engage a bit of cognitive dissonance whereby a 7% divvy is somehow better than losing 20% of your capital?

Many investors make all sorts of sell/buy/sit decisions - based on micro-trends. How much of that is crystal ball gazing to be honest? So why the reticence in analysing macro-trends? I do agree that one needs to diversify much more broadly into all asset classes but the old adage that cash is king during recessionary times is broadly true. Fixed term deposit rates are 4.5% - that's ok in my view and eliminates the very real risk of capital erosion that exposure to the sharemarket presents att his time. 

Nobody doubts that we are currently in bear territory - but hey, this is just describing the past. Yes, we walked downwards and yes, it is foggy - i.e. we don't know what comes next.

Relevant for investing is where we go from here and - if its a medium sized bear, it might be already at or close to its bottom. If its a mega grizzly, than sure - there might be another 30, 50 or 80% drop ahead of us.

Referring to your remark related to modelling ... the likelihood for these models to deliver useful output diminishes with the complexity of the system you are modelling.

Problem is that for an extremely complex system like the world economy nobody is able to know and capture all input parameters. Even worse - the economy is a level 2 chaotic system (Level two chaos is chaos that reacts to predictions about it, and therefore can never be predicted).

If you want to know more, do some reading about Chaos theory - there are some good books (if you like maths), but there is as well a lot of useful stuff just available through Dr. Google.

So - I have no issues with using models to better understand local problems, in the understanding that any model offers at best some likelihoods for things to happen, however - the larger and more complex these systems you try to predict are, the less useful is the prediction (and yes, this is  a direct consequence of the behaviour of chaotic systems).

[LoungeLizard]

GNE down 5% today and nearly 25cents since it paid it's 9c dividend. I'll stick my neck out and predict GNE will be around $2.50 (ie lose another 25c) by xmas. If I'm right -and I freely admit that I absolutely may not be - the drop will be nothing to do with GNE as a business and everything to do with global economics. And that drop will only be from the shadow of the bear - if he turns up, all bets are off.

[lorraina]

I think GNE's share price will be higher in 13 months time than it is today.
In the meantime I will pick up 3 juicy divies from them.

[arekaywhy]

GNE down 5% today and nearly 25cents since it paid it's 9c dividend. I'll stick my neck out and predict GNE will be around $2.50 (ie lose another 25c) by xmas. If I'm right -and I freely admit that I absolutely may not be - the drop will be nothing to do with GNE as a business and everything to do with global economics. And that drop will only be from the shadow of the bear - if he turns up, all bets are off.

I'll place the bet and start stacking more of this one in my NZ portfolio