IFT - Infratil

[LoungeLizard]

$11.11 close of play. New High.

[Left Field]

Nice upwards trends developing for both IFT and FPH.

[Left Field]

Interesting read on how 'cloud services' have benefitted from AI.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/apr/30/amazon-sales-report-ai

[Azz]

Interesting read on how 'cloud services' have benefitted from AI.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/apr/30/amazon-sales-report-ai

"The earnings report comes after Amazon announced it would invest $11bn to build more data centers in Indiana, promising at least 1,000 jobs there. Also in the quarter, the company extended its partnership with chip manufacturer Nvidia to continue to power its AI offerings."

[Azz]

I'm not in this. I nearly bought in a while back (I described Infratil at the time - on the other channel - as the only NZ stock I liked). But there were just too many other opportunities around over various asset types. For example, NZ Art went gangbusters for a while, and once you own some quality pieces you figure out that they don't really drop in value, they tend to do the opposite, especially if you time it well and the artist subsequent to purchase, and without too much delay, dies or is unable to paint for whatever reason (loss of painting arm, degraded faculties, etc). And while the artworks appreciate sitting on your walls, they make your life considerably better in an aesthetic type of way, if you're into aesthetics that is. Alongside that asset class, and while the typical New Zealand investor was obsessing over their unfortunate investment in listed bricks and mortar, the once-quiet revolution of A.I. super-intelligence kicked into high gear.

The point I'm making here, is that Infratil in the "old world" (ie, pre ChatGPT first release) was a good buy. It's not now, it's an average buy. Infratil "invests in stuff", right? And we have a chance to invest in Infratil's investing. But they're not investing in the things I want to invest in.

Don't get me wrong: they're a good company, and I think the stock will do okay moving forward, if "okay" is your thing. If they went hard-out with finding and buying quality A.I.-related holdings, and at the same time they dumped questionable policies and investments - such as their obsession with ESG which is thankfully falling out of favor across the world and their continued hold of 50% of very risky RetireAustralia - I would certainly take another look.

To go against what I'm saying, but for a specific reason for an investment, I think Infratil is a good "defensive" stock. If you just want to park some money for while, for whatever reason, Infratil will probably get you your money back plus some more on top.

[LoungeLizard]

Another all time high at close of play. There's obviously a bit of confidence going into tomorrow's results.  

[Left Field]

Looking good.....plus an increase in divvies..... you can't beat quality in tough times....FY25 outlook looking  impressive

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431367

Proportionate EBITDAF was $864.1 million – a 63% increase on the $531.5 million from the same period the previous year. "While a substantial portion of this increase can be attributed to the higher ownership stake in One NZ since June 2023, even after adjusting for this change, growth stood at an impressive 15.5%.


"FY2025 Proportionate Operational EBITDAF guidance has been set at $980 million to $1,030 million, reflecting the momentum that has been building across the portfolio. This is up 11% at the midpoint on a strong FY2024 result.  "

[Toddy]

This result is outstanding. We have become accustomed to negative restlts on the NZX.

IFT is leading the way, and very well positioned to continue the impressive growth rate.

One happy shareholder!

[LoungeLizard]

Infratil just keeps rolling out these outstanding results year on year. A FY after tax return of 21.7% and a return of 22% every year for the last ten years. Remarkable. Wonder how long before it gets a serious re-rating as it just seems to fly under the radar, despite being probably the best and most consistent performer on the NZX.

[BlackPeter]

OK - it is a solid result, and the SP clearly driven by expectations of many happy returns of the previous SP gains. Combination of forward P/E (12.1) and forward EPS (8.4) looks quite juicy, however - they will need to keep their good timing when they want to keep cashing in these capital gains.

Lots of happy stories in the report, and they don't miss out any of them ... but if I look at it as a black box, nobody will buy it for its dividends (dividend yield <2%), nobody will buy it for its NTA (35 cents per share) but yes, they managed to buy lately into some promising infrastructure and in the past more often than not got the timing right when selling their assets.

Currently more than 60% of their assets in digital - and sure, data centres do well, but how much will they further appreciate in value? At the end, its not rocket science to build another one. And their big stake in Vodafone (One NZ)? Sure, they say under blind people is the one eyed king, but if I look at NZ, both One NZ as well as Spark offer rather mediocre customer experience. How much further are they going to grow in value?

Renewable energy is 22% of their portfolio, and no doubt - renewables are good. However - there are as well plenty of players in the renewables industry with more patchy records. Question is - will Infratil's renewables players really just leap from success to success, or will they have as well their Siemens Energy moment (look at the SP over the recent years if you don't know what I am talking about).

So I recon what one really pays is for the fund manager to keep their (at least recently) impeccable timing for buying and selling assets. Nobody knows how long this lucky streak will continue (and it well may, but nobody can predict the future), but at least I wouldn't gamble the house on it.

Anyway - congrats to holders - and just keep partying.

[Waltzing]

Data centres about to explode in the demand for power as well...

A whole new generation of chips is about to fab'd and the costs of the FAB will go up and the demand for power as data centre over load occurs.... The flow of data is only just starting... robots not far off now..

radical 360 degree chips with back side front side designs means the TECH REVOLUTION is only just starting..

lucky there is fibre and 5G .... country might not be as bad shape as some think at the moment...

[Basil]

OK - it is a solid result, and the SP clearly driven by expectations of many happy returns of the previous SP gains. Combination of forward P/E (12.1) and forward EPS (8.4) looks quite juicy, however - they will need to keep their good timing when they want to keep cashing in these capital gains.

Lots of happy stories in the report, and they don't miss out any of them ... but if I look at it as a black box, nobody will buy it for its dividends (dividend yield <2%), nobody will buy it for its NTA (35 cents per share) but yes, they managed to buy lately into some promising infrastructure and in the past more often than not got the timing right when selling their assets.

Currently more than 60% of their assets in digital - and sure, data centres do well, but how much will they further appreciate in value? At the end, its not rocket science to build another one. And their big stake in Vodafone (One NZ)? Sure, they say under blind people is the one eyed king, but if I look at NZ, both One NZ as well as Spark offer rather mediocre customer experience. How much further are they going to grow in value?

Renewable energy is 22% of their portfolio, and no doubt - renewables are good. However - there are as well plenty of players in the renewables industry with more patchy records. Question is - will Infratil's renewables players really just leap from success to success, or will they have as well their Siemens Energy moment (look at the SP over the recent years if you don't know what I am talking about).

So I recon what one really pays is for the fund manager to keep their (at least recently) impeccable timing for buying and selling assets. Nobody knows how long this lucky streak will continue (and it well may, but nobody can predict the future), but at least I wouldn't gamble the house on it.

Anyway - congrats to holders - and just keep partying.

I've sometimes thought about what a marvelous gig this is for Morrison and Co. Buy assets, then revalue the heck out of them on paper and claim massive performance fees for that.  Analysts often seem skeptical of these valuations but shareholders can rely on Morrison being accurate with these on paper gains because they have no vested interest in this...opps hang on a minute. More than $200m in fees with market cap of less than $10B...more than 2% management fees per annum.  No doubt holders think those fees are well earned.  Can't argue with their long term performance though...so far.

Anyway...be that as it may...market unimpressed with the result by the look of it.

[Left Field]

Anyway...be that as it may...market unimpressed with the result by the look of it.

Indeed........ this 5 day chart highlights how result expectations got ahead of themselves..... longer term, the upside trend continues.

[Mos]

I've sometimes thought about what a marvelous gig this is for Morrison and Co. Buy assets, then revalue the heck out of them on paper and claim massive performance fees for that.  Analysts often seem skeptical of these valuations but shareholders can rely on Morrison being accurate with these on paper gains because they have no vested interest in this...opps hang on a minute. More than $200m in fees with market cap of less than $10B...more than 2% management fees per annum.  No doubt holders think those fees are well earned.  Can't argue with their long term performance though...so far.

Anyway...be that as it may...market unimpressed with the result by the look of it.

Strong performer over many years. Results speak for themselves and very well positioned. Happy long term holder.

[Left Field]

Craigs getting bullish on IFT it seems......


" The main highlight was the FY25 capex guidance, with IFT forecasting
proportionate capex of $2.7-3.1b (compared to $1.7b in FY24). A significant
portion of this is at CDC where IFT expects capex of A$2.35-2.65b (IFT's
proportionate share NZ$1.2-1.4b) as the company ramps up development"

"NAV $11.59. Now trading at a 8% discount to NAV
We estimate the current NAV at $11.59, with IFT currently trading at a 8%
discount to NAV.

Price Target $11.70 (prev $11.35). Rating lifted to Overweight
Our Price Target remains at a 5% discount to our forward NAV estimate
which incorporates the CIP Price Target for MNW, dividends paid and
received, management fees, funding costs, and roll-forward valuations of the
unlisted assets.

We have lifted our rating from Neutral to Overweight reflecting the increase
in our NAV estimate and Price Target. Our valuation of CDC is a key driver of
this and is now 64c per IFT share greater than the Independent Valuers.
Towards the end of FY25 we think the valuers estimate could increase
materially as some significant data centre developments are completed."

Nice to be 'well positioned'.