KMD Kathmandu Brands

[lorraina]

Bit of a long wait to 30th June for the 3cps unimputed divie.
Otherwise a good result with a strong out look.
2nd half usually the stronger half.

[Shareguy]

We were both optimistic eh ....did you change your forecast and edit original post?

Statutory NPAT of $14.0 million; Underlying NPAT1 of $16.5 million

Record sales but a big increase in employee costs resulted in NPAT being below what I thought.  Divi good but unimputed for NZ holders. Debt at $85m

PS No I did not edit my post. (It says if the post has been edited) 

[Basil]

Had a brief look over this to see what I might be missing compared to my sector preference HLG.  Couldn't find anything to get enthusiastic about to be honest about it.  Lot of sales for very little profit, good gross profit margin but razor thin net margin reflected in very modest net profit after all costs taken into account.
Gosh the stock turn is scary low at 1.61 times compared to HLG which somehow despite there obviously only being 4 seasons, manages to consistently get a stock turn above 4.  Kathmandu gear has always struck me as expensive even on sale and in tougher times I suspect we will see quite a bit of brand substitution to cheaper brands like the Mountain Warehouse.  Gosh 2H performance will need to be considerably better to justify the apparent metrics this is trading on.
Prefer HLG by a country mile.  I guess I don't "get' the international growth opportunities this may have and would rather stick with Glassons Au proven track record of strong sales and strong eps growth.
Unimputed 6% yield doesn't spin my wheels but each to their own and good luck to holders.

[winner (n)]

Basil ....in the media

Business is booming and the future looks bright for global outdoor apparel firm KMD Brands after the grim slog through the pandemic now appears to be behind the company

CHEAP CHEAP at current prices

[winner (n)]

Bit of a long wait to 30th June for the 3cps unimputed divie.
Otherwise a good result with a strong out look.
2nd half usually the stronger half.

The wait .....,,giving themselves time to quit some of that excessive stock to get the cash to pay it .....and avoid having to borrow a bit more

[lorraina]

Will most probably work well for me, as I it is a drought time of the year for me receiving divies.

[Basil]

Basil ....in the media

Business is booming and the future looks bright for global outdoor apparel firm KMD Brands after the grim slog through the pandemic now appears to be behind the company

CHEAP CHEAP at current prices

Funny you mention cheap cheap mate...can't help myself thinking of a budgie lol
Lot of cheap stocks around at the moment.  Some really scream "cheep" just like a budgie, (late single digit PE's with nearly 10% yields).  Retailers HLG and TRA good examples. 

Just a thought for KMD, how long before catch-up tourism spend and outdoor adventure activities cools off a bit? 

[Shareguy]

I agree sales were great. However Group uEBITDA margin of 8.3% in 1H23 was a considerable step up from 2.5% in the pcp, however remains well below the 11-12% pre-COVID levels. No real guidance given other than second half normally better.  So all going well maybe a 7 cent total divi if we are lucky.

Overall, disappointed and agree there are better opportunities currently. 2024 might be the year for KMD

[lorraina]

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/zYAtsvHUNkzTUQDgRIuOkA/2T0a5L8luuDCkDAKsv2ghw

[Shareguy]

Craig's updated note this morning

No guidance provided. Only minor changes to CIP forecasts: KMD indicated strong momentum has continued into Feb, with sales up +31.9% YoY across the Group, (albeit this not a significant trading month). With sales healthy and guidance commentary largely in-line with our forecasts, we make only minor changes to our numbers following this result.

Target price $1.48 (prev. $1.44), +2.8%: We increase our 12-month target price by 2.8% which reflects minor changes to our forecasts and the impact of TVM since last publish.
 
 

[winner (n)]

Much respected and successful value investor Alan Gray still buying at bargain prices

Probably can't believe their good fortune

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/409824/392483.pdf

[Waltzing]

well winner dont see it out performing this and not even HLG... but you never know...and with all that government money , mean your money being spent on the rebuild after the cyclone who knows the American said even expects BRS to benefit...

Inflation says KIWI's whats that?

[BlackPeter]

Anybody noticed this Golden Cross which passed by a couple of weeks ago? Since that point in time did the SP nicely hold above or bouncing at the MA200. Golden times ahead ;

[afc029871]

I don't know Alan Gray but Kathmandu looks cheap to me. As volume recovers and profits grow we could see the share price recover.
Looking at marketscreen the shares are on a pe of 13.5 for 2023 and 10.2 for 24, when a dividend of 7 cents is forcast. I would take this with a big pinch of salt. But fingers crossed. The pe drops to 8.6 for 25 with a 9 cent dividends. Cash flow also improves. Hope springs eternal

[BlackPeter]

I don't know Alan Gray but Kathmandu looks cheap to me. As volume recovers and profits grow we could see the share price recover.
Looking at marketscreen the shares are on a pe of 13.5 for 2023 and 10.2 for 24, when a dividend of 7 cents is forcast. I would take this with a big pinch of salt. But fingers crossed. The pe drops to 8.6 for 25 with a 9 cent dividends. Cash flow also improves. Hope springs eternal

You are probably referring to dividend yield (if you talk about dividend). PE is Share Price divided by Earnings per share ... and latter says nothing about whether the board decides to pay a dividend or not.

Having said that - you are right ... while KMD is not cheap if it just would keep its current earnings (with a PE of 21), if we assume that the earnings will grow from here with 2 cts per year (as e.g. market screener shows), it is a steal (which would turn it into a forward PE of 12 with a two digit earnings CAGR). Obviously - at this stage its just that, a promise and - predicting the future is impossible.

If you are an optimist for KMD, its a great buy. If you are a pessimist and expect people to stop buying good quality outdoor gear, its not.

Discl: I am an optimist - i.e. holding;